While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $0.46
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.30
FCX Long at $12.74
FCX Short March 15th - $13 Call @ $0.24
AMC Long at $14.44
AMC Short March 22nd - $14.50 Call @ $0.43
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As we wind down to the end of this week, I do want to mention that there is one position that expires today. And that is the short $13 call on FCX.
FCX is trading under the strike, so it is unlikely the calls will be assigned. I will send a separate email if a trade adjustment is required.
The market closed slightly to the downside yesterday. For the day, the S & P 500 was down 2.44 points. And it closed at 2,808.48.
Of course, this was just below the major 2,812.50 level which was just hit. But, a pause after hitting a major level is not unusual.
And for the day, the market contracted. The range for the day was only 11.54 points. This was less than one half of the daily average true range. It was also an inside day.
This tells us to expect an expansion.
So, the key levels for today are the high and how which were 2,815.00 and 2,803.46 and the midpoint which was 2,809.23.
And pre open, the S & P 500 is trading almost 9 points higher. Assuming this trading holds up until the open, the market would open above yesterday's high.
Assuming that happens, the high and close should be support on a pullback.
In looking at the weekly price bar formation, the market did test last week's high as expected. A close above that high would be bullish.
And based on the open, the market should open above 2,816.88. Monitor this level and as I said, a close above it would be bullish.
ADBE reported last night and is trading about $9 lower. ULTA is up about $16 off their earnings.
On a final note, I just want to say that my thoughts and prayers are with those affected in the New Zealand catastrophe.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed out at 13.50 yesterday. Our objective is still down to 12.50 and higher levels should be resistance.
Namely, it should still be at 14.06 and technical resistance at 14.81.
I don't see a market reversal until the VIX bottoms out and begins to reverse.
SPX:
Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,871.08
Minor level: 2,832.03 **
Major level: 2,812.50 Hit
Minor level: 2,792.98 **
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
The market will need two closes above 2,832 to move higher. Minor support should be at 2,800.
On the upside, there is minor resistance at 2,824.70. The market should open about 6 points under it.
Watch this level. And if the S & P 500 clears this level, it should continue higher.
The 30 minute chart continues to move closer to crossing into an uptrend. If it can do that, I would expect more movement to the upside.
QQQ:
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56 **
Major level: 175.00 < Hit!!!
Minor level: 173.44 **
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
The QQQ closed at 176.71. Yesterday was the second close above 176.56. This now implies that the active objective for the QQQ is 181.25.
At this point, support should be at 176.56 and 175.00.
The 30 minute chart has moved into an uptrend. Technical support should be at 173.50.
A break above 178.13 and the QQQ should continue up.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
The IWM closed at 154.35. It continues to trade just under the midband on the daily chart. The midband is 156.36.
The IWM will need to clear 154.69 to head higher. Watch this level on a pullback as most likely, the IWM will open above it.
153.13 should be support.
TLT:
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.49 **
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 118.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
The TLT closed at 120.95. Since getting just above the 121.88 level, the TLT has now closed under 121.49. A close today under 121.49 and the TLT should drop to 120.31.
120.70 should be support. A break under this level and the TLT should head lower.
The 30 minute chart just crossed into an uptrend. Technical support is at 121. This is close to the support line, so if the TLT does break under it, it should head lower.
GLD:
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66 **
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
The GLD closed at 122.41. Watch to see if the GLD can hold the 121.88 level. If it can, it should bounce. A break under it and I would expect more movement to the downside.
The 30 minute chart is bearish. And technical resistance should be at 123.82. The GLD sold off right against this level yesterday.
Also, the GLD is above the midband on the daily chart. The midband is 119.62 and should be support.
XLE:
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
The XLE closed at 66.05, the second close above 65.63. This level should be support.
The next minor level is 66.41. Two closes above this level and the XLE should test 68.75.
66.02 is a minor support level.
FXY:
Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50
Major level: 86.72
Major level: 85.94 <
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36 ***
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY closed at 85.34. At this point, the FXY should test 85.94. And yesterday's high came to 85.52.
Resumption of the down move. 85.55 should be minor resistance.
AAPL:
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13 **
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 159.38
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00
Predicted High: 185.62
Predicted Low: 181.84
Apple closed at 183.73. At this point, I am biased for a test of 187.50. But, the caveat at the moment is that the daily midband is 186.06. And that should be resistance until it is violated.
Apple is just under the midband. Watch to see if it can clear it. If it can, I would this move to continue.
My prediction is that Apple will clear the midband. When it does, a buy as close to the midband with a stop just under it would be a low-risk trade.
175 should be major support. And minor support should be at 176.56. And 181.25 could offer some resistance.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: COST, ZBRA, APD, CMI, CCI, DIS, YUM, CNI, DUK, ROKU, ORCL, SO, LNT, BCE, AGO
Bearish Stocks: NFLX, HUM, GD, SJM, CTS, FANG, INGR, STMP, HAS, EOG, VLO
Be sure to check earnings release dates.