While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.13
RIG Short April 18th - $9 call @ $0.32
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
CLW Long May - $20.00 call for $2.00
CLW Short May - $22.50 call for $1.00
AMC Long at $16.16
AMC Short April 18th - $16.50 call @ $0.35
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Yesterday, I suggested a short term covered call on AMC. With only four trading days this week, the premium was actually better than expected.
This now brings this week's open positions to two deals.
Now onto the markets.
The S & P 500 ended the day relatively flat. It closed at 2,905.58, down 1.83 points on the day.
And once again, the market contracted with a range of only 13.12 points on the day. This was about one half the average true range, which is now 22.53 points.
Since peaking at 71.94 points on January 9th, average true range has steadily dropped.
And the high yesterday was 2,909.60. This was about a point under the major 2,910.15 level.
After breaking a major level which was 2,890.60, the market tends to stall at the next minor level, which is 2,910.15.
There are two expected outcomes for the market at this point.
Either the S & P 500 has two closes above 2,910.15 or fails and pulls back.
I do want to point out that on Friday, when 2,910.15 was hit, the market did not close above it.
If the market has two closes above 2,910.15, the upside objective becomes 2,968.80.
In the event, the S & P 500 does not have two closes above 2,910.15 and it pulls back, the logical area for the pullback would be to the 2,734 to the 2,754 area.
Why?
That area would be a two-level off the minor 2,910.15 level. And typically markets do not drop more than two levels in a bull market.
The support area from yesterday's daily bar is in the 2,904 to 2,907.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 10 points higher.
This projects to an open of around 2,915, or above the minor level.
This would suggest that support on a pullback should be in the 2,909 to 2,910 area.
Support from last week's weekly bar is still in the 2,909 to 2,890 area.
Earnings season is just beginning. NFLX reports after the close today.
And Thursday morning we get earnings from HON and SLB.
Pre open, the market is trading relatively flat.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72 **
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed out yesterday at 12.31, up 30 cents for the day. At this point, 12.50 should be resistance. And 13.28 as well. Yesterday's high came to 13.14 before the VIX dropped to close under 12.50.
And minor resistance is at 12.89. Watch the 12.11 level today. A break under this and I would expect a drop to 10.94.
SPX:
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,849.25
Minor level: 2,910.15 **
Major level: 2,890.60 <
Minor level: 2,871.08 **
Minor level: 2,832.03
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
The key at the moment will be to see if the S & P 500 can close two days above 2,910.15. The minor 2,902.80 level should offer support.
2,905.85 is a minor level and look for support here as the market does pullback.
Both the 30 and 60 minute charts continue to be bullish. 2,891 is technical support.
Continue to buy against support.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94 **
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
The QQQ closed at 185.86. The QQQ continues to inch close to the 187.50 objective.
If the QQQ can clear 185.94, look for it to continue to push higher. 185.16 is minor support. And now 185.55 should be minor support.
Like the S & P 500, both short term charts are bullish. Technical support is at 185.
Continue to buy against support.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 < HIT!
Minor level: 154.69 **
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
The IWM closed at 157.17. Two closes above 157.81 and the IWM should test 162.50.
The midband is now 156.21 and should offer support.
If the IWM can clear 159.38, it should head higher.
Minor support is at 156.64 and 157.42.
The 30 minute chart is bullish and the 60 minute chart is close to crossing into an uptrend. If it can, it should head higher.
TLT:
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27 **
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
The TLT closed at 122.98. If the TLT can close above 122.27 today, it should move up to 123.44.
122.66 should be minor support. And 123.60 is technical resistance.
Biased for a retest of the upper band on the daily chart, which is 126.35.
GLD:
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66 **
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.09 **
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
The GLD closed at 121.60. Two closes under 121.09 would suggest a drop to 120.31 before a move higher.
The 60 minute chart still remains in a downtrend. And the 30 minute chart as well. Technical resistance is around 123.
XLE:
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97 **
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
The XLE closed at 67.16. Still expect a move up to 68.75. The XLE is trading right between the midband, which is 68.83 and the 200 ema which is 66.40.
These are both key support levels. So, watch for a breakout or breakdown.
67.19 is a minor support level. This should still be a support level. If it holds, I would expect the XLE to move higher. If the XLE can move back above 67.19, look for a push higher.
I would expect strong support at the 65.63 level.
Short term charts remain bullish. Buy against support.
FXY:
Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50
Major level: 86.72
Major level: 85.94 <
Minor level: 85.75 **
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY closed at 85.13. The FXY is trying to form a base around the 85.16 level. If it can hold this level, I would expect a push higher.
Next minor level to the upside is 85.36. On the downside, 84.96 is a minor supprot level. If the FXY cannot hold 84.96, I would expect it to head lower.
AAPL:
Major level: 206.25
Minor level: 204.69
Minor level: 201.56
Major level: 200.00 <
Minor level: 198.44 **
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Apple closed at 199.23. Now that 200 has been hit, I would expect support at 198.44. And if Apple can close above 200, it should head higher.
The next level higher is 201.56. Apple will need to clear this level to move up to 206.
Technical support is around 198 as well. Still buy against support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: CMG, ANET, FLT, ZBRA, SHOP, CP, MA, OLED, ADP, HON, V, ITW, CMI, DIS, ZBH, VRSK, XLNX
Bearish Stocks: NFLX, HUM, CW, MDSO, ABC, TWOU, CVS, WFC, HLF, EAT
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
