While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $2.63
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
WDC Long July 19th - $52.50 Call @ $1.34
WDC Short July 19th - $55.00 Call @ $0.34
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There is one position that expires today and that is the call debit spread on WDC. I will send out an email to close out the position, so be aware that an alert will be coming.
Yesterday, the S & P 500 finally bounced from the overbought condition it had been in. The low for the day was 2,973.09, which was about 5 points above the major 2,968.80 support line.
As you know, we were looking for support at that major level. And from a technical standpoint, the low for the day stopped right at the bottom extreme bollinger band on the 10 minute chart. That price level is 2,974.72.
But, a bounce should not shock you, as we were looking for it based on the fact that the S & P 500 had confirmed a move up to 3,125 and the fact that the 30 minute and 60 minute charts are both bullish.
The other situation we were monitoring was the VIX.
As it turned out, the VIX got as high as 14.48 before dropping to close at 13.53.
The support area from yesterday's daily bar is in the 2,985 to 2,987 area.
With a close at 2,995.11, look for this area to act as support on a pullback.
And with the market getting back above last week's support area of 2,989, it should also offer support on a pullback.
Taking a look at how the weekly price bar is shaping up, we see that is down 18.66 points through yesterday's close.
And the midpoint is 2,995.45, which is virtually where the market closed yesterday.
For a bullish week to form, it would suggest that the market should move higher today and close above the midpoint.
The open, which is also the high for the week, is 3,017.80.
So, I would expect a test of that level today. A move up to the 3,018 area would be a move of about 23 points. Not out of the question at all because the daily average true range is 21.83 points.
Microsoft reported last night and is up about $4 pre open.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 4.75 points higher.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72
The VIX closed at 13.53 yesterday. This was the second close above 13.28, so it does suggest that it may head higher.
We were looking for resistance at 14.85 and the VIX got as high as 14.50 before dropping.
At this point, 12.89 should offer support. And 14.84 should continue to be resistance.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00 <
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85 ***
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73 **
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
The objective is still up to 3,125. To void this objective, the S & P would need two closes under 2,929.73, which is still 55 points away from the market.
2,988.30 should offer support. If it holds, look for a move up to over 3,000.
A breakthrough this level and the S & P should continue higher.
QQQ:
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53 **
Major level: 193.75 < Hit
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
The QQQ closed at 192.42. With the QQQ reclaiming 192.19, it would still need two closes under that level to head lower.
Minor support is at 191.41. Like the S & P, the QQQ rallied off the lower band on its 10 minute chart. That price level is 190.99.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69 **
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 154.71. The IWM closed just above 154.69. It would still need two closes under 154.69 to move lower.
The IWM was also able to reclaim the midband on its daily chart. That price is 154.11.
It has now spent 14 days trading around the midband. This suggests that wehn the IWM begins to move, it should be a large one.
Look for 154.69 to offer support on a pullback.
TLT:
Major level: 134.38
Minor level: 133.60
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47 **
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
The TLT closed at 132. It will need two closes above 132.03 to head higher.
131.64 and 131.25 should offer support. If this level holds, look for a move up to 132.81.
If the TLT breaks under 131.95, look for it to head lower.
GLD:
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16 **
Major level: 134.48 <
Minor level: 133.60
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
The GLD closed at 136.48. It was up 1.90 on the day. It is above the upper band.
As I have said before, you tend to get this volatility around the upper band. And because the GLD had traded above the upper band, we did expect a retest.
Everytime a market clears the upper band, we expect a retest. Either it clear it again or it fails.
The next level on the upside is 137.50.
XLE:
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28 **
Major level: 62.50 <
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
The XLE closed at 62.47. The upside is still to 65.63. If the XLE can reclaim the 62.50 level, it should continue higher.
62 is technical support. And minor support is at 62.11.
AAPL:
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 209.38
Minor level: 203.13 **
Major level: 200.00 <
Minor level: 196.88
Minor level: 190.63
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13
Major level: 175.00
Apple closed at 205.66. The objective for Apple should still be to the 212.50 level.
If Apple does take out 206.26, it would suggest that Apple should head up to 225.
Support is at 200. And technical support is at 204.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: NFLX, LMT, ADBE, FLT, MA, COST, APD, MLM, VRSN, MCD, HD, FB, OLED, HON, V, BABA, DIS, MSFT, WYNN
Bearish Stocks: RTN, USNA, SPR, KEX, NUS, DIS, TUP
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
