While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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The S & P 500 moved up slightly. For the day, the S & P closed 5.77 points higher. It closed out at 3,010.29.
This was the first close above the 3,007.85 level, which has been the key level the market has been trying to clear.
And the low for the day came in at 3,000.42. This was just above the support level I mentioned yesterday, which was in the 2,998 to 2,999 area.
The daily range came in at 15.65, which was once again a range contraction.
The daily average true range now reads 28.31, so yesterday's range was 55% of the average.
Even though the daily bar closed at 63% of the daily bar, it still does not show a lot of conviction, at this point.
But, we do know one thing. And that is that an expansion will be coming.
And the bias still remains to the upside. Especially with a close above the minor 3,007.85 level. And from a technical standpoint, the S & P is very close to crossing into an uptrend on its 60 minute chart.
So, if the 60 minute crosses into an uptrend it would be bullish. Or, if the S & P closes above 3,007.85 today, it should head higher.
Both events do not have to happen for the market to head higher. But, if both do happen, those events would certainly compliment each other.
The support level from yesterday's daily bar is in the 3,008 area.
With all the daily contractions, the weekly price bar has contracted as expected.
The weekly range through yesterday is only 24.86 points. And the weekly average true range is now 76 points. So, the range is only 33% of the average.
The midpoint through yesterday is 3,003. Watch this level on a pullback.
Amazon reported last night and is trading to the downside about $108.
Pre open, the market is trading about 2 points lower.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28 **
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed at 13.67 yesterday. Bias is still to the downside.
Resistance should be at the 14.85 level.
Yesterday's close was right on the minor 13.67 level. Watch to see how the VIX reacts at this level.
Watch the 13.28 level. If the VIX breaks under this level, it should head lower.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85 **
Major level: 2,968.80 <
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
As you know, yesterday we got the first close above the 3,007.85 level. A close today above this would suggest a move up to 3,125.
3,002.90 should be support on the downside.
And technical support is around 3,000.
QQQ:
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19 **
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
The QQQ closed at 194.09. The QQQ will need two closes above 194.53 to move up to 196.88.
192.36 should offer support.
Technical support is around 193.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 154.18. The objective for the IWM should be for a move up to 156.25. But, the IWM needs to clear 154.69 to move higher.
153.13 should still be a support level. And technical support is around 153.
TLT:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85 **
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.84
The TLT closed at 139.20. 139.85 should be resistance until it is violated. And a close today under this level and the TLT should drop to 137.
140.63 should be resistance, as well as 139.06.
Technical resistance is around 142.
GLD:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41 **
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
The GLD closed at 141.53. With a close today above 141.41, the GLD should move up to 143.75.
Technical support is around 140, which is right around the minor 140.63 level.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38 < Hit
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03 **
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 59.04. Watch to see if the XLE can hold the minor 58.60 level.
The XLE will need to clear 60.16 to head higher.
The XLE will need to clear this level to head higher. And 56.25 should still be support.
The XLE is actually close to crossing into an uptrend on its daily chart. This would be a major event and indicates higher prices to follow.
AAPL:
Major level: 250.00
Minor level: 246.88
Minor level: 240.63 **
Major level: 237.50
Minor level: 234.38
Minor level: 228.13
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 221.88
Minor level: 215.63
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 209.38
Apple closed at 243.58. This objective should now be to 250.
237.50 should offer support.
Technical support is around the 242 level.
Short term charts remain bullish. Buying against support is still the best strategy.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: GOOGL, CHTR, SPY, CTAS, HD, AAPL, PANW, NVDA, FB, DE, AGN, CMI, DG, UTX, CAT
Bearish Stocks: BA, BIIB, FANG, XOM, CXO, TXRH, XEC, CLR, PSQ
Be sure to check earnings release dates.