While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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The market looked to extend the selling pressure from Friday, with the S & P 500 opening with a 17.30 point gap. And the gap was to the downside.
The market found support at 3,214.64 before managing to rally back to close at 3,246.28.
This was a move of 32.20 points and greater than the daily average true range of 21.06 points.
And the day closed out at 98% of the daily price bar. This suggests that yesterday's high of 3,246.84 should be violated before the low of 3,214.64.
And with a close back above the minor 3,242.15 level, this would suggest that the S & P would need two closes below 3,242.15 to drop to 3,125.
I wrote this yesterday ... "Last week's low was 3,212.03 and the projected open should be about 5 points above it. So, watch the weekly low. A violation of the low would suggest the market should head lower."
As it turned out, yesterday's low held above the weekly low on the test. As I said, yesterday's low was 3,214.64, which was about 2.50 points above last week's low.
What I did not mention was that if the test of the weekly low held, the market should head back up.
And the logical move would be for a test of the weekly high, which was 3,258.14. The rally back went to about 12 points below last week's high.
Yesterday's close of 3,246.28 was about 12 points above last week's close, which should now be a support level.
Support from yesterday's daily price bar is in the 3,230 to 3,232 area.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 1 point lower.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72 **
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed Friday at 13.85. At this point, resistance should be at 14.85. And a close today under this level and the VIX should test 12.50 again.
13.84 is a short term technical level. If the VIX can hold above it, it should move higher. And a break under it would suggest the VIX will continue lower.
Watch the minor levels for the VIX as well today. And watch the 13.84 level.
SPX:
Major level: 3,281.20 <
Minor level: 3,242.15 **
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00 <
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
The S & P closed at 3,246.28. As I said, the S & P managed to recoup the minor 3,242.15 level.
The S & P managed to take out the 3,125 level and recouped it. As I said, 3,125 should be support.
The bullish percent index remains overbought, but at this point, we have not had a spike in the VIX. Technicals remain bullish for the market.
Technical support is 3,234.
QQQ:
Major level: 218.78
Minor level: 218.00
Minor level: 216.43
Major level: 215.65 <
Minor level: 214.87 ***
Minor level: 213.30
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 211.74
Minor level: 210.17
Major level: 209.39
Minor level: 208.61
Minor level: 207.04
Major level: 206.25
Minor level: 205.48
Minor level: 203.91
Major level: 203.13
The QQQ closed at 215.56. The QQQ managed to close back above the 214.87 level and is right at the major 215.65 level.
Support should now be at 214.87. And it will need two closes above 216.43 to move up to 218.78.
And the 214 area should offer technical support. Minor resistance should be at 217.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19 **
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 165.35. At this point, 167.19 should be resistance. A drop to 162 should still be the objective.
The minor 164.06 level should offer support. If the IWM cannot clear 167.19, it should continue down.
The 166 area should offer technical resistance. And the IWM is right at this level. Watch how price reacts.
TLT:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28 ***
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.84
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25
The TLT closed at 138.33. At this point, I would expect resistance at 139.85.
Technical support is at 137.
A move above 139 and the TLT would be overbought short term.
GLD:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.67 **
Major level: 146.89 Hit
Minor level: 146.11
Minor level: 144.54
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
The GLD closed at 147.39. The GLD took out the major 146.89 level.
The GLD continues to be overbought short term based on the marketwide news.
145.79 is the upper band in the 60 minute chart and the GLD is trading above it.
137.50 should be strong support. So if the GLD does break under it, I would expect it to head lower.
The key level is 134.38 on the downside. If the GLD has two closes under this level, it could drop to 125.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50 <<
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16 **
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 60.87. A close today above 60.16 and look for a move up to 62.50.
Watch for support at the 60.16 level. And at 59.38.
Technical support is still around 60.
AAPL:
Major level: 300.00 Hit
Minor level: 296.88 **
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 284.38
Minor level: 278.13
Major level: 275.00
Minor level: 271.88
Minor level: 265.63
Major level: 262.50
Apple closed at 299.80. Apple is back to the major 300 level.
296.88 should offer support. And minor support is at 290.63.
And Apple is up against the upper band on the daily chart. That level is 301.
The 294 area should offer technical support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: TSLA, NOC, ROP, ADBE, NTES, MA, AAPL, LRCX, NOW, GS, RTN, BABA, LHX, FB, MCD, DE, COUP, CB
Bearish Stocks: ALXN, TSCO, SQ, CLB, UFS, QGEN, MAC, BEN
Be sure to check earnings release dates.