While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
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DUST Long $4.50
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RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
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UNIT Long at $6.78
UNIT Short Feb 21st Call @ $0.30
IRBT Long (2) Feb 28th - $52.50 calls @ $2.40
IRBT Long (1) Feb 28th - $52.50 put @ $2.50
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The buying followed through from Tuesday and the S & P 500 managed to close 15.86 points higher on the day.
The day closed out at 3,386.15.
The S & P continues to inch up to the two objectives I have been writing about. The first is the upper band, which is now 3,412.87.
And yesterday's high of 3,393.52, now puts the market within 20 points of the upper band.
The other objective we have been monitoring is the next resistance level, which is 3,427.40.
Because the resistance objective is about 15 points above the upper band, the upper band is the key level to monitor.
We know there are only two reactions the market will have when it reaches the upper band. Either it clears the level and closes above it. Or it sells off against it.
But, with the strength of this market, price could bounce around the upper band before it decides what to do.
As I have been pointing out, the QQQ and the NASD Composite are both trading above their upper bands on their respective daily charts.
The question is will the S & P and the DOW follow?
I don't know, but a run to the upper band is certainly the logical move.
The range for the day was only 14.69 points, which was about 52% of the daily average true range.
And the day closed out at 50% of the range of the daily price bar.
So, for today, monitor the close of 3,386.15, and the high and the low for a violation.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 5.50 point lower. This would project to an open around 3,380 or about 2 points above yesterday's low of 3,378.83.
Watch to see if the low holds as support.
DPZ reported and is trading about $48 higher. Pre open, it is up 16.35%.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75 <<
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed at 14.38 yesterday. The 14.85 level continues to act as resistanace. Yesterday's high went to 14.74.
I still expect a test of 12.50. And 14.85 should still be resistance.
Technical resistance is at 14.52. Look for a failure on a retest.
S & P 500:
Major level: 3,427.40 <
Minor level: 3,398.35
Minor level: 3,320.25 **
Major level: 3,281.20
Minor level: 3,242.15
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
The S & P closed at 3,386.15. The minor 3,378 resistance level held as support, as expected.
Yesterday's low was 3,378.83. By the way, the actual minor resistance line is 3,378.83.
So, watch this level today on a retest. Assuming it holds, expect a move higher.
Technical support is at 3,378.10.
QQQ:
Major level: 237.50 <
Minor level: 236.73
Minor level: 235.16
Major level: 234.38
Minor level: 233.60
Minor level: 232.03
Major level: 231.25
Minor level: 230.48
Minor level: 228.91
Major level: 228.13
Minor level: 227.35
Minor level: 225.78
Major level: 225.00
The QQQ closed at 236.98. The QQQ came within 3 cents of the 237.50 level.
Watch to see if the QQQ can clear this level today.
To move lower, the QQQ would need two closes under the minor 236.73 level.
235.70 should offer technical support.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06 **
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
The IWM closed at 168.40. The IWM will need to clear the 168.75 level, to move higher.
The IWM did take out the major 168.75, but could not close above it.
The IWM still has not crossed into an uptrend on its 60 minute chart, but it is close. If it does cross up, the price should continue higher. 166 is the midband on the 60 minute and it should be support.
The 168 level should offer technical support.
TLT:
Major level: 146.88
Minor level: 146.10
Minor level: 144.53 **
Major level: 143.75 <
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.84
The TLT closed at 145.53. The TLT closed exactly on the minor 144.53 level. The objective should still be to a test of 146.88.
143.75 should offer support. But, there is minor resistance at 145.54. The TLT needs to clear this level to head higher.
GLD:
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78 **
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.67
Major level: 146.89
Minor level: 146.11
Minor level: 144.54
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
The GLD closed at 151.79. The objective for the GLD should be up to 153.13.
The 150 level should be strong support. And technical support should be around 151.
Momentum remains bullish.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.47
Minor level: 53.90 **
Major level: 53.12 <
Minor level: 52.34
Minor level: 50.78
Major level: 50.00
The XLE closed at 54.85. The XLE should bounce up to 56.25.
The XLE did break under 53.90, but it managed to hold.
53.78 is a key support level. If this can hold, look for the XLE to continue to bounce. If it can't, look for a further drop.
54.50 should offer technical support.
AAPL:
Major level: 337.50
Minor level: 334.38
Minor level: 328.13
Major level: 325.00 <
Minor level: 321.88 **
Minor level: 315.63
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 284.38
Apple closed at 323.62. Watch to see if Apple can clear the major 325 level. If it can, it should be support and Apple should head higher.
The upper band is 343 and is the level to watch on the upside.
The 323 area should offer technical support on a pullback.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, GOOLG, TSLA, MELI, SHOP, REGN, ADBE, NOW, NTES, LRCX, MA, COST, INTU, NVDA, DXCM, APD, HD, RNG
Bearish Stocks: WAT, EEFT, W, CXO, CHRW, RPD, LNG, NTAP, CSCO, HLF, XEC, RAMP, SINA
