7While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
ET Long at $11.78
Premium Collected $0.35
DBX Long at $19.70
Premium Collected $0.75
ET Long at $7.50
Premium Collected $0.60
AGNC Long at $13.19
Premium Collected $1.20
AGNC Short April 3rd - $13.50 call @ $0.80
MFA Long at $4.20
MFA Short April $5 Call @ $0.40
FCX Long at $6.93
FCX Short April 3rd - $7 Call @ $0.35
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Before I begin, I do want to mention that there are two positions that expire today.
They are the short $13.50 call on AGNC. And the short $7 call on FCX.
Both stocks closed yesterday under their respective strike prices. So, hold the positions and if they close under their strike prices today, you will book the profit on the options.
Yesterday, the S & P 500 actually managed to exhibit some bullish price action. I say this because the S & P managed to hold the lower band on the daily chart.
The lower band on the daily chart is 2,471.40. And yesterday's low stopped at 2,455.79 or about 16 points below the lower band before it was able to rally back and close above it.
This level should now be support. But, because the market traded under the lower band, I would expect another test of it after any rally fizzles out.
The DOW and IWM are still trading under their lower bands. But, the VIX closed under the upper band on its daily chart for the first time since February 24th.
As I mentioned yesterday, this would be a requisite to see any sight of sustained rally in the market.
Yesterday's daily bar closed at 92% of the range of the bar. This would suggest that the high of 2,533.22 should be violated before the low of 2,455.79.
And that support should be in the 2,492 to 2,495 area.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 7 points lower. This projects to an open around 2,520 or above the support area. Watch the support area on a sell-off.
The weekly price bar is setting up to be a contraction. The range through yesterday was 193.90 and the weekly average true range is 177.41.
So, at this point, the S & P has exceeded the weekly average true range.
And last week's range was 445 points. So, through Thursday, the range was 43% of the average.
After an expansion bar, a contraction is not unusual. In fact, it is generally expected.
If the weekly range moves to 50% of the weekly average, it would project to a high of 2,670.
The midpoint of this week's weekly bar is 2,544. And yesterday closed at 2,526.90 or about 17 points below it. Watch this level as well today.
The other key level for today will be the midband on the weekly chart. That price level is 2,516.36.
In addition to the market holding the lower band on the daily chart, a close above the weekly midpoint would also be bullish.
For a bit of good news for a change, TSLA reported higher deliveries and is trading about $70 higher pre open.
Major level: 40.62
Minor level: 39.84 **
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.16
Major level: 34.38
Minor level: 33.60
Minor level: 32.03
The VIX closed at 50.91. The VIX closed 6.15 points lower. And as I mentioned above, it closed under the upper band on the daily chart.
The upper band is 54.02. At this point, the upper band should be resistance. But I would expect a retest of the upper band after a sell-off.
At this point, I would expect a decent bounce in the market, assuming it does not close above the upper band.
Technical support is around 47 and resistance is at 55.
S & P 500:
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.75
Minor level: 2,851.65
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,617.25
Minor level: 2,539.06
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,460.95 **
Minor level: 2,382.85
Major level: 2,304.75
Minor level: 2,226.65
The S & P closed at 2,526.90. The S & P managed to close above the major 2,500 level. Watch for support at the minor 2,460.95 level.
If the S & P cannot hold the minor 2,460.95 level, it could drop to 2,304.
On the upside, the minor 2,539.06 level is the next level the market needs to clear to move higher.
QQQ:
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94 **
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
The QQQ closed at 186.01. The minor 182.81 level should offer support. And on the upside, watch to see if the QQQ can clear 187.50.
Technical support is around 184. And resistance is at 196.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 107.67.
Still trading below the lower band on the daily chart, which is now 117.71. This level should be resistance until the IWM can close above it. The IWM is getting close to the lower band.
The 105 area should provide technical support. And technical resistance is at 112.
TLT:
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.48
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
Minor level: 146.10
The TLT closed at 168.10. The TLT closed above the upper band on the daily chart, which is 164.96.
Watch the upper band for support. And watch this level again today.
Resistance should be around 170. And support at 166.
GLD:
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35 **
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.67
Major level: 146.89
Minor level: 146.11
The GLD closed at 151.90. Watch to see if the GLD can clear the minor 152.35 level today. If it can't, it should head lower.
The 155 area should now be resistance. And 150 should be support.
XLE:
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.47
Minor level: 53.90
Major level: 53.12
Minor level: 52.34
Minor level: 50.78
Major level: 50.00
Minor level: 49.22
Minor level: 47.65
Major level: 46.88
Minor level: 46.09 **
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
The XLE closed at 30.15. Still about $3 under the lower band. The lower band on the daily chart is now 33.47.
The XLE bounced almost 10% based on Pres Trump suggesting a deal to lower production would be in the works.
Even with the bounce, the XLE is still trading under the lower band,
The 29 area should now be technical support.
AAPL:
Major level: 325.00
Minor level: 321.88
Minor level: 315.63
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88 **
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50 <
Minor level: 284.38
Minor level: 278.13
Major level: 275.00
Minor level: 271.88
Apple closed at 244.93. Apple is still in an uptrend on its daily chart. It is above the midband, which is 237.83. This should now be support until it is violated.
Watch to see if it can hold the midband. If it can't, I expect a strong move lower.
The 238 area should be technical support. Resistance is at 250.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: TLT, TDOC, CTXS, QDEL, ONGM
Bearish Stocks: KEYS, WCN, LGND, CHD, MMS, DDS, WWE, ASGN, DRQ, ARCH, ALTR
