While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
ET Long at $11.78
Premium Collected $0.35
DBX Long at $19.70
Premium Collected $0.75
ET Long at $7.50
Premium Collected $0.60
AGNC Long at $13.19
Premium Collected $1.20
AGNC Short April 3rd - $13.50 call @ $0.80
MFA Long at $4.20
MFA Short April $5 Call @ $0.40
FCX Long at $6.93
Premium Collected $.68
FCX Short April 17th - $7.50 Call @ $0.33
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Yesterday, I suggested closing the FRO position. The result was a 4.3% gain for a few days.
I also suggested you sell the $13 call that expires next Friday, on the AGNC position. This brings to $1.55 per share the amount of call premium collected on the AGNC position.
The market continued higher yesterday. The day closed out 84.43 points higher.
And the S & P 500 closed at 2,846.06 or about 35 points above the major 2,812.50 level we were calling for.
The question is now what?
I am still biased for a test of the midband on the daily chart. And that level is 2,987.
And yesterday closed about 140 points below it. Considering the average daily range is now about 120 points, this objective could be one day away.
But pre open, the S & P is trading about 53 points lower. So, assuming this holds until the open, it would put that objective about 175 points under the midband.
The open would project to be around 2,793 or about 12 points below yesterday's low of 2,805.10.
Considering that the daily price bar closed at 39% of the range of the bar, a violation of the low at the open is not that surprising.
So, watch the low on a rally. After that, the next level would be around 2,828.
Also, the key technical level to watch for today is around 2,720.
This is the midband on the 60 minute chart and because the market traded above it, it should be support on a retest.
If the midband cannot hold, then I would expect the market to head lower.
The 60 minute chart is also very close to crossing into an uptrend. And if it can cross into an uptrend, I would expect the market to test the midband on the daily chart.
Goldman Sachs reported and is down about 5.32 after reporting. Morgan Stanley reported and is down 1.33.
And Citigroup reported and is down about 1.12.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
Minor level: 42.97
Minor level: 41.40
Major level: 40.62
Minor level: 39.84
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50 <
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.16
Major level: 34.38
Minor level: 33.60
Minor level: 32.03
The VIX closed at 37.79. The VIX closed 3.38 points lower.
The VIX did cross into a downtrend on its 60 minute chart. The midband is 50 and should be resistance.
With the VIX crossing into a downtrend, this should help to confirm more upmovement in the S & P.
Watch the minor 38.28 level. Two closes above that level and the VIX should test 40.62.
S & P 500:
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.75
Minor level: 2,851.65 **
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45 **
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,617.25
Minor level: 2,539.06
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,460.95
Minor level: 2,382.85
Major level: 2,304.75
Minor level: 2,226.65
The S & P closed at 2,846.06. At this point, the objective should be to 2,812.50.
And as I said, technical support should be at 2,720. The S & P is close to crossing into an uptrend on the 60 minute chart. A bullish cross will also confirm further upmovement
Also, I would expect support at the minor 2,773.45 level. The S & P should open about 20 points above it, so watch this level on a sell off.
QQQ:
Major level: 212.50 Hit
Minor level: 210.93
Minor level: 207.81
Major level: 206.25 <
Minor level: 204.69
Minor level: 201.56
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 198.44
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
The QQQ closed at 211.86. The midband on the daily chart is 195.77, and should now be support.
Yesterday's high was exactly 212.50. So, at this point, I would expect support at the 207.81 level.
The 60 minute chart has already crossed into an uptrend, which implies further movement to the upside.
Technical support is also around 195.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 122.81. The IWM closed above the lower band on the daily chart for the fourth day, which is now 113.46.
The lower band should now act as support.
124 is a resistance level and if the IWM can clear it, then it should head higher.
TLT:
Minor level: 164.85 **
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.48
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
The TLT closed at 163.84. The TLT closed under the upper band on the daily chart for the fourth time in about a week and one half. The upper band is now 167.79.
Watch the 164.85. The TLT would need to clear this level to head higher.
Support should be around 160.
GLD:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38 <
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
The GLD closed at 162.68. The GLD is overbought and right at the upper band on the daily chart, which is 164.50.
Watch the upper band today. If the GLD cannot clear it, look for a move lower. A break under 162.50 would also confirm a move lower.
The 167 area should now be resistance. And 152 should be support.
XLE:
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.47
Minor level: 53.90
Major level: 53.12
Minor level: 52.34
Minor level: 50.78
Major level: 50.00
Minor level: 49.22
Minor level: 47.65
Major level: 46.88
Minor level: 46.09 **
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
The XLE closed at 33.64. The XLE closed again above the lower band on the daily chart. That level is now 31.02. And it should offer support.
The XLE is sitting right at the midband on the daily chart. Thst price level is 34.22. If it cannot clear this level, look for a move lower.
AAPL:
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50 <
Minor level: 284.38 **
Minor level: 278.13
Major level: 275.00
Minor level: 271.88
Minor level: 265.63
Major level: 262.50
Apple closed at 287.05. Apple is still in an uptrend on its daily chart.
The minor 284.38 should offer support.
Technical support is around 265. Apple is very close to crossing into an uptend on the 60 minute chart.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, REGN, VRTX, AMGN, DG, LLY, FCN, WMT, AKAM, DOCU, CCOI, CNC, FIZZ, STX, CAG
Bearish Stocks: QID, SQQQ, SPXS, TECSWHR, WCN, DGX, DLTR, CRI, WPC, OMC
