While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
ET Long at $11.78
Premium Collected $0.35
ET Long at $7.50
Premium Collected $0.60
AGNC Long at $13.19
Premium Collected $1.45
MFA Long at $4.20
Premium Collected $0.40
HOG Long at $21.70
Short May 8th - $22 call at $0.45
IQ Long at $17.44
IQ May 15th - $18 call at $0.25
................................................................................
Yesterday, the S & P 500 closed marginally higher. The day closed out. 39 points to the upside.
The market closed at 2,930.19.
The S & P 500 is literally testing the 61.8% retracement of the March sell-off.
As I have been pointing out, this Fibonacci level works out to 2,934.49. And yesterday's high went to 2,944.25 or about 10 points above it before the market sold off to close about 4 points below it.
I am not going to go into a whole discussion of Fibonacci levels, but the most important is the 50% level. In fact, I use that as the level that is usually tested on pullbacks. I also use it as the level that separates a bear close from a bull close.
But, on the pattern that the S & P 500 on the sell off from February 19th to the low on March 23rd, the key level is 61.8%. And the market rallied back to it.
Pretty good estimate when the market stopped at 2,191.86.
The key now is if the S & P can clear this level. The next major level is the midband, which is 2,982.
As you know, the first time the midband is approached from below, it should be resistance.
So if the market does clear the midband, it would be an indication that the market should head higher.
Yesterday's daily bar closed at 66% of the range of the bar, so the odds still favor the high being violated before the low.
And the support level from yesterday's bar should be in the 2,922 to 2,924 area.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 10 points higher. This projects to an open around 2,940 or about 4 points below yesterday's high.
Watch to see if the market can clear the high on a rally. And on a pullback, the 61.8% level of 2,934 should be support.
The support area from last week's weekly price bar is in the 2,865 to 2,872 area and should still be valid.
BABA reports Thursday before the close. And WIX also reports Thursday before the close.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 39.84
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.16
Major level: 34.38
Minor level: 33.60
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 30.47
Minor level: 28.91
Major level: 28.13 <
Minor level: 27.35 **
Minor level: 25.78
The VIX closed at 27.57. The VIX got as high as 30.93 or just under the major 31.25 level.
And 28.13 should be a key level in the short term. If the VIX cannot clear this level, it should head lower. And yesterday, the VIX ended up closing just under it. This level should be resistance.
The 31 area should still be technical resistance.
S & P 500:
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80 <
Minor level: 2,929.75
Minor level: 2,851.65 **
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,617.25
Minor level: 2,539.06
Major level: 2,500.00
The S & P closed at 2,930.10. The objective should be to 2,968.80, but the market needs to clear the minor 2,929.75 level. And yesterday, the S & P managed to close just above it.
At this point, 2,929.75 should be support.
And the 2,851 level should also be support.
Technical support is around 2,900.
QQQ:
Major level: 231.22
Minor level: 229.66
Minor level: 226.56 **
Major level: 225.00 Hit
Minor level: 223.42 **
Minor level: 220.31
Major level: 218.75
Minor level: 217.19
Minor level: 214.06
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 210.93
Minor level: 207.81
Major level: 206.25
Minor level: 204.69
Minor level: 201.56
The QQQ closed at 226.87. Yesterday was the first close above 226.56. This implies that if the QQQ closes above 226.56 today, it should test 231.22.
Look for support at the major 225 level. And the minor 223.42 level.
Technical support is also around 225.
IWM:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.19
Minor level: 139.06
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.94
Minor level: 132.81 **
Major level: 131.25 <
Minor level: 129.69
Minor level: 126.56
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 123.44
The IWM closed at 131.70. The IWM took out the 131.25 level again.
At this point, the IWM will need two closes above 132.81 to move higher.
Technical support is around 125. And the 140 area is technical resistance. It needs to clear 133 to head higher.
TLT:
Major level: 169.53
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85 **
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.48
The TLT closed at 162.70. The TLT did take out the 162.50 level. Yesterday's low was 162.10.
It will have to clear 163.28 to move higher. And two closes under 161.72 and the TLT should drop to 159.38.
The 164 area should be technical resistance. Support is around 160.
GLD:
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16 **
Major level: 159.38 <
Minor level: 158.60 **
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
The GLD closed at 159.42. The next minor level on the upside is 160.16. And on the downside, the level is 158.60. A close today above 160.16 and the GLD should test 162.50. And two closes under 158.60 and the GLD should drop to 156.
Support should be at 158. And technical resistance is around 160.
The GLD is starting to top out.
XLE:
Minor level: 47.65
Major level: 46.88
Minor level: 46.09
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
Minor level: 42.97
Minor level: 41.41
Major level: 40.63
Minor level: 39.83
Minor level: 38.28 **
Major level: 37.50 <
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.15
Major level: 34.27
The XLE closed at 38.10. At this point, if the XLE can hold 38.28, it should head up to 40.63.
37.50 should be support.
Technical support should be around 37. And resistance at the 42 level.
AAPL:
Major level: 325.00
Minor level: 321.88
Minor level: 315.63 **
Major level: 312.50 <
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 284.38
Minor level: 278.13
Major level: 275.00
Apple closed at 315.01. Apple held the 300 level. Target should be to 312.50. And Apple took out the objective.
Two closes above 315.63 and Apple should test 325.
The major 312 level should be support.
312 should offer technical support. And technical resistance is around 320.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: GOOGL, SHOP. CHTR, DXCM, NOW, ADBE, NVDA, AAPL, RNG, AAPL, ZBRA, CLX, COUP, AGN, MSFT, ADSK, CRM
Bearish Stocks: WBA, PINC, LX, RESI, LC
