While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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The S & P 500 continued to follow through from the reversal last Thursday. For the day, the S & P closed 53.14 points higher.
The day closed out at 3,351.60.
The intra day range was only 44% of the daily average true range. The intra day range was 27.83 points and the daily average true range is 62.87 points.
But, if you factor in the gap of 26.03 points, the range from yesterday's high to Friday's high was 53.86 points, which was still less than the average.
And the day closed out at 67% of the range of the daily bar.
Support from yesterday's daily price bar is in the 3,347 area. Under this level, there is support around 3,343.
Also, the 3,320 area would be about one half the gap, which should be an area to watch on a deeper pullback.
The market has already taken out last week's high.
Last week's high of 3,323.35 should now be a support level on a pullback. And last week's low as well, which was 3,298.46.
Under these levels, the next support level would be around 3,266.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 6 points lower.
This projects to an open around 3,345 or right around the daily support area. Watch to see if the price holds the daily support area.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 30.47
Minor level: 28.91
Major level: 28.13 <
Minor level: 27.35 **
Minor level: 25.78
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
The VIX closed at 26.19. For the day, the VIX closed .19 points lower.
With a close under 27.35 today, I am biased for a drop to 25.
The key now will be if the VIX can hold the midband on the daily chart. It closed right around the midband again.
That level is now 26.23. Yesterday's low and close was just below the midband.
S & P 500:
Major level: 3,593.60
Minor level: 3,554.55
Minor level: 3,476.45
Major level: 3,437.40
Minor level: 3,398.35
Minor level: 3,320.25 **
Major level: 3,281.20 <
Minor level: 3,242.15
Minor level: 3,164.00
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
The S & P closed at 3,351.60. By clearing the 3,281.20 level, this should now be support. And if the S & P can close above 3,320.25 today, it should head up to 3,437.40.
The 60 minute chart for the S & P is still bearish and is trading under the midband. That level should be the objective, which is 3,388.
The key will be if the S & P can clear the midband.
QQQ:
Minor level: 289.06
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 285.94
Minor level: 282.81
Major level: 281.25
Minor level: 279.69
Minor level: 276.56 **
Major level: 275.00
Minor level: 273.44
Minor level: 270.31
Major level: 268.75
Minor level: 267.19
Minor level: 264.06
Major level: 262.50
Minor level: 260.94
Minor level: 257.81
Major level: 256.25
The QQQ closed at 277.20. The QQQ closed 5.64 higher.
The QQQ took out the 275 level. And a close today above 276.56 and the QQQ should test 281.25.
The QQQ is right at the midband on its 60 minute chart. That level is 277.54. If the QQQ can clear this level, it should head higher.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.70
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.19
Minor level: 139.06
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.94
The IWM closed at 150.02. The IWM closed 3.61 higher on the day.
This put the IWM back above the major 150 level and above the midband on the daily chart.
The midband is now 145.95 and should now be support.
And the midband on the 60 minute chart is 153.30. Look for a move up to this area.
TLT:
Major level: 171.88
Minor level: 171.10
Minor level: 169.53
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85 **
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
The TLT closed at 164.65. It closed .47 lower.
To move higher, the TLT needs to recoup the 164.85 level. If not, a drop to 162.50 would be expected. And with a close today under 164.85, the TLT should drop to 162.50.
The 165 area is still technical resistance. This is the key area at the moment.
Short term charts remain bearish.
GLD:
Minor level: 188.28
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 186.72
Minor level: 185.16
Major level: 184.38
Minor level: 183.60
Minor level: 182.03
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 180.47
Minor level: 178.91
Major level: 175.00 < HIT!
Minor level: 174.25
Minor level: 172.70
Major level: 171.89
The GLD closed at 176.70. The GLD closed 1.76 higher on the day.
Watch the minor 178.91 level. Two closes above this level and the GLD should head up to 181.25.
The GLD is at that lower band on the 60 minute chart. That level is 172.94. Watch to see if it can hold.
Getting the oversold bounce we expected.
XLE:
Minor level: 41.41
Major level: 40.63
Minor level: 39.83
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.15
Major level: 34.37
Minor level: 33.59
Minor level: 32.03 **
Major level: 31.25 <
Minor level: 30.47
Minor level: 28.90
Major level: 28.12
The XLE closed at 30.89. The XLE closed .71 higher. Getting the oversold bounce.
The XLE needs to clear the major 31.25 level to head higher.
Short term the XLE is oversold. It did move above the lower band on the 60 minute chart, which is now 28.48. This should be support on a retest.
Looking for a bounce at the lower band. Technical support should be around 30.
AAPL:
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 134.38
Minor level: 128.13
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 121.88
Minor level: 115.63
Major level: 112.50 <
Minor level: 109.13 **
Minor level: 103.13
Major level: 100.00
Apple closed at 114.96. Apple managed to close $2.68 higher. Next minor level is 115.63. Two closes above this level and Apple should test 125.
With Apple clearing 112.50, look for this level to be support.
Apple broke under the midband on the 60 minute chart. That level is 117 and should be resistance. Apple has crossed into a downtrend on the 60 minute chart. Short term momentum is bearish. Watch the midband.
The lower band is 99 and that should be support now.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: ZM, FDX, ROKU, NKE, GH, Z, CNI, DG, AAXN, NTRA, RUN, TWTR, VSLR, TOL,
Bearish Stocks: LMT, BIIB, FLT, CME, CI, BA, IBM, CB, CBRL, ROST, YUM, BAX, EW, HAS, WYNN