While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
ET Long at $11.78
Premium Collected $0.35
ET Long at $7.50
Premium Collected $0.60
MFA Long at $4.20
Premium Collected $0.95
PRA Long at $16.45
Premium collected $1.00
BOX Long at $17.65
BOX Short Dec $19 Call @ $.80
Premium Collected $1.20
GILD Long Dec 11th - $60 Call @ $2.20
GILD Short Dec 11th - $65 Call @ $.33
EGAN Long at $11.36
PS Long at $16.84
PS Short Dec 18th - $17.50 Call @ $.55
CVX Long Jan 8th - $70 Call @ $2.35
CVX Short Jan 8th - $75 Call @ $.85
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Yesterday, I suggested another debit spread. And it was on CVX. The idea was to buy the January 8th $70 call and sell the $75 call against the long calls.
The maximum profit on this position is just over a 2 to 1 return. And the risk is just under 1% of the nominal portfolio.
The market continued its move to the upper band on the daily chart. For the day, the S & P 500 managed to close 6.56 points higher.
The day closed out at 3,669.01.
You should recognize that this was the second consecutive close above 3,732.65. This now suggests the upside objective for the S & P 500 is to the 3,749.80 level.
Having said that, yesterday was also the second consecutive day where the S & P and the VIX diverged. For the past two days, they have both closed to the upside.
The last time this happened was on September 30th and October 1st.
The market closed on October 1st at 3,380.80. Seven days later, the S & P closed at 3,534.22 or 153 point higher.
If I project 153 points higher from yesterday's close, it would put the market at 3,822 or about 75 points above the next target.
Can this happen? Of course. But, I try and project based on past market history and past events. And I just state the facts based on that history.
Yesterday's daily bar closed at 93% of the range of the daily price bar, which does suggest the high should be violated before the low.
The support area from yesterday's daily bar is in the 3,658 to 3,661 area.
Pre open, the market is relatively flat.
Yesterday, I mentioned how the high of the November monthly bar should be support. That price level is 3,645.99.
As it turned it, it worked out. The low for yesterday was 3,644.84 or about one point under the high.
SNOW reported and is trading about $9 lower. SPLK is trading about $45 lower after reporting.
CRWD reported and is trading about $17 higher.
Thursday after the close, we get earnings from DOCU, RH, and ULTA.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 30.47
Minor level: 28.91
Major level: 28.13
Minor level: 27.35
Minor level: 25.78
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66 **
Major level: 21.88 <
Minor level: 21.10 **
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
The VIX closed at 21.17. The VIX closed .40 points higher. As I mentioned above. the VIX and the S & P have diverged for the past two days.
The objective for the VIX should be to the 18.75 level. The 21.88 level should still be resistance. And should still be resistance. Yesterday's high went to 21.25.
22.66 should also be resistance.
Technical resistance is around 21.50, which is around the major resistance level.
S & P 500:
Major level: 3,749.80 <
Minor level: 3,710.75
Minor level: 3,632.65 **
Major level: 3,593.60 <
Minor level: 3,554.55
Minor level: 3,476.45
Major level: 3,437.40
Minor level: 3,398.35
Minor level: 3,320.25
Major level: 3,281.20
Minor level: 3,242.15
Minor level: 3,164.00
Major level: 3,125.00
The S & P closed at 3,669.01. The S & P closed 6.56 points higher. This was the second close above 3,632.65.
The objective for the S & P is now to the 3,749.80 level.
Support should be at the 3,632.65 level.
3,650 should be technical support.
QQQ:
Major level: 306.25 <
Minor level: 304.69
Minor level: 301.56 **
Major level: 300.00 Hit
Minor level: 298.44
Minor level: 295.31
Major level: 293.75
Minor level: 292.19
Minor level: 289.06
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 285.94
Minor level: 282.81
Major level: 281.25
Minor level: 279.69
The QQQ closed at 303.85. The QQQ closed .39 higher. The objective for the QQQ should be for a test of 306.25.
Support should be at the 301.56 and 300 levels.
Technical support is also around 302.
IWM:
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 181.25
Minor level: 176.56 **
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.70
The IWM closed at 182.89. The IWM closed .19 higher on the day.
The objective for the IWM should still be to 187.50.
I am looking for a retest of the upper band on the 60 minute chart. That level is 193.
182 should be technical support.
TLT:
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25 Hit
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
The TLT closed at 156.25. It closed 1.25 lower. "With a close under 158.60 today, the TLT should drop to 156.25." From yesterday and the TLT closed exactly on that level.
The TLT dropped under the midband on the 60 minute chart. This level, which is now 159, should be resistance.
If the TLT cannot hold the major 156.25 level, I would expect a further drop.
The TLT closed under the midband on the daily chart, which is 156.97. This should be resistance.
GLD:
Minor level: 182.03
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 180.47
Minor level: 178.91
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 174.25
Minor level: 172.70
Major level: 171.88 <
Minor level: 171.10
Minor level: 169.53 **
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.97
The GLD closed at 171.46. The GLD closed 1.28 higher on the day.
The GLD went to within 12 cents of the 171.88 level. Watch to see if the GLD can clear 171.88.
The GLD is bouncing from its oversold condition.
The midband on the 60 minute chart should be resistance. That level is 176.33.
XLE:
Minor level: 41.41
Major level: 40.63 <
Minor level: 39.83
Minor level: 38.28 **
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.15
Major level: 34.37
Minor level: 33.59
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 30.47
Minor level: 28.90
Major level: 28.13
The XLE closed at 38.13. The XLE closed 1.20 higher on the day. The midband on the daily chart is 38.93 and the XLE is just under it. The XLE needs to recoup the midband to head higher.
Also, watch the 37.50 level. If the XLE can clear this level, it should head higher.
I still expect another rally because the XLE did manage to close above the upper band on the 60minute chart. Support should be around 32.50.
AAPL:
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 134.38
Minor level: 128.13
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 121.88
Minor level: 115.63 **
Major level: 112.50
Minor level: 109.13
Minor level: 103.13
Major level: 100.00
Apple closed at 123.08. Apple closed $.36 higher.
Target now should be up to the 125 level. And the 121.88 level should be support.
121.50 should be technical support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: TTD, GOOGL, TSLA, RH, LRCX, ASML, AVGO, COST, ZBRA, PANW, COUP, ADSK, ANET, ULTA, DE, KLAC, GS, URI, TEAM, SQ, V, ITW, HON, AMP, KSU, MCK, CAT
Bearish Stocks: AMT, BIDU, BAX, K, CNC, FE
