While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
GOGO? Long at $19.93
Total Premium collected - $1.55
NCR Long Jan 16 $27 Call
Net Debit - $.80
X Long at $14
Total Premium collected - $.89
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium collected - $.75
ETE Long $14.05
Total Premium collected - $.30
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Today begins the last trading week of 2015.? This Thursday, there will be a full session.
The markets will be closed on Friday for the New Year's Day Holiday.
For those of you that were not assigned on the VNR calls, you doubled your profit on the trade.? You should have exited on Thursday with an additional 10% profit.
Last week, the S & P 500 closed up 55.47 points for the week. However, on a weekly chart, the weekly price bar was an inside day.? An inside day is a price bar that has a lower high and a higher low.
An inside day is a range contraction and is usually followed by an expansion.
This year has been typified with a range bound market. The S & P 500 opened the year at 2,058.90.
Friday's close was 2,060.99.
If the S & P closed at that price, it would mean the market closed up for the year 2.09 points.?
But there are still four more trading days left in the year, so it will be interesting to see where the market settles.
2,060.99 is just 1.51 points under the major 2,062.50 support level. And the high on Friday was above that, so the objective was hit.
The S & P 500 could not take out the next minor resistance level, which ws 2,070.33.? The high was a few points shy of that level.? The high was 2,067.36.? That also happens to be right around the midband, which is 2,066.33.
The last time price stalled at the midband on the 60 minute chart, the S & P 500 dropped 71.24 points.
The VIX also back to key support levels.
The short term 60 minute chart is in an uptrend, so a? rally would not be unexpected.
For the markets to move up, the VIX will need to reverse off a resistance level and head down.
Here are the key levels for the markets.
?
VIX:?
Major level - 25.00
Minor level - 23.44
Minor level - 20.31
Major level - 18.75
Minor level - 17.19
Minor level - 14.06
Major level - 12.50
Friday, the VIX closed at 15.74, 13 cents above the 15.63 support level.
I would expect 18.75 to be resistance on the VIX. If it reverses at that level to the downside, expect the markets to rally.
S & P 500 Cash Index:?
Major level - 2,093.80
Minor level - 2,085.98
Minor level - 2,070.33
Major level - 2,062.50
Minor level - 2,054.68
Minor level - 2,039.10
Major level - 2,031.30
Minor level - 2,023.48
Minor level - 2,007.82
Major level - 2,000.00
Minor level - 1,992.18
Minor support should be at 2,046.90. If the S & P cannot close under that level, look for it to push back up.
Nasd 100 (QQQ):?
Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 114.85
Minor level - 113.28 *
Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 111.72
Minor level - 110.16
Major level - 109.38
Minor level - 108.60
Minor level - 107.03
Major level - 106.25
The QQQ closed Thursday at 112.23, just under 112.50 after hitting that objective.
111.72 should be a minor suport level.? Two closes under that level and the QQQ could drop to 109.
Two closes above 113.28 and the next objective becomes 115.63.
TLT:?
Major level - 125
Minor level - 124.22
Minor level - 122.66
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 121.09
Minor level - 119.53 *
Major level - 118.75
Minor level - 117.97
Minor level - 116.40
Major level - 115.62
The TLT bounced up and closed just under the 121.88 level, at 121.83.
It will now need two closes above 122.66 to move back up.
GLD:
Major level - 106.25
Minor level - 105.46
Minor level - 103.91
Major level - 103.13
Minor level - 102.34 *
Minor level - 100.78
Major level - 100.00
Major level - 96.88
The GLD continues to trade between 100 and 103. However, the 60 minute chart has moved into an uptrend.
Perhaps this will be the start of a move for the GLD. I would still want to see two closes above 103.13 before putting on any positions.
XLE:
Minor level - 63.28
Major level - 62.50 *
Minor level - 61.72
Minor level - 60.16
Major level - 59.38
Minor level - 58.60
Minor level - 57.03
Major level - 56.25
The XLE will need two closes above 63.28 to move up.? 61.72 should be support.
A close today under 61.72 and the XLE should try and test the 59 level.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 125, 118.75, 112.50, 106.25, 100, and 93.75. 106 should be a major support level for Apple.?
Apple did close above 107.81 on Thursday, so the objective should be to 112.50.
However, I would expect a restest of the prior low, which was 105.57.? If it holds support at the 106 level, it could be worth a trade.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: PNRA, NOC, CI, KMB, ACE, ADBE, DPS, PM, QIHU, BRCM, ALTR, CCL, TSN, DAL, RAI
Bearish Stocks: CMG, COO, RH, PVH, ODFL, JWN, WSM, DECK, OUTR, WNR, HIBB, BKE, NTAP, SWFT
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
