While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
GOGO? Long at $19.93
Total Premium collected - $1.95
X Long at $14
Total Premium collected - $.89
Short March 18th - $15.50 call @ $.37
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium collected - $.75
ETE Long $14.05
Total Premium collected - $1.05
P Long $13.38
Total Premium collected? - $.35
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium collected - $.45
Short March 24th - $4.50 Call @ $.25
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The S & P 500 continues it's assault on the 2,062.50 level, closing yesterday at 2,040.59. It is now within 22 points of the objective.
And the VIX has been cooperating nicely after dropping under the 15.63 level. The VIX is within 2 points of the 12.50 objective.
Continue to expect lower support levels to hold for the markets and a grind up to their objectives.
When the VIX hits the major 12.50 level, the odds will favor a correction.
There is one position that expires today. That is the short $15.50 call on X. X is flirting with the strike price, and closed just under the $15.50 strike yesterday.
Look for an adjustment today if X does pullback. Assuming we can close the position for a negligible amount, I will most likely suggest that. If it does run, I will suggest you allow the calls to be assigned.
Here are the key levels for the markets.
VIX:
Major level - 25.00
Minor level - 23.44
Minor level - 21.88
Minor level - 20.31
Major level - 18.75
Minor level - 17.19 *
Minor level - 14.06
Major level - 12.50
Minor resistance should be at 14.84 and 15.63. If the VIX does close under 14.84 today, that will add further support for a move down to 12.50.
Higher levels should continue to act as resistance.
S & P 500 Cash Index:
Minor level - 2,078.12
Major level - 2,062.50 **
Minor level - 2,046.88
Minor level - 2,015.62 *
Major level - 2,000.00
Minor level - 1,984.38
Minor level - 1,953.12
Major level - 1,937.50
Minor level - 1,921.88
Watch how the S & P reacts around 2,046.88, as that level could offer some resistance.
If it gets above 2,046.88, expect 2,062.50 to be hit.
Lower levels should continue to act as support. 2,015 should be support at this time.
Nasd 100 (QQQ):
Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 111.71
Minor level - 107.03 *
Major level - 106.25 *
Minor level - 105.46
Minor level - 103.91
Major level - 103.13
Minor level - 102.35
Minor level - 100.78
Major level - 100.00
The QQQ did close above 107.03 yesterday, so the objective should now be 112.50.
Having said that, 109.38 and possibly 107.81 could offer some resistance for the QQQ.
Lower levels should act as support. 106.25 should be a strong support now.
TLT:
Minor level - 132.03
Major level - 131.25
Minor level - 130.46
Minor level - 128.91*
Major level - 128.13 *
Minor level - 127.34
Minor level - 125.78
Major level - 125.00
The TLT has still not closed above 128.91. It will need two closes above 128.91 to move up to 131.
Look for support at 128.13.
For the TLT to fail and head down, it will need two closes under 127.34.
GLD:
Major level - 125.00
Major level - 121.88 *
Minor level - 121.10
Minor level - 119.53 *
Major level - 118.75
Minor level - 117.96
Minor level - 116.41
Major level - 115.63
Slight sell off in the GLD yesterday, with it closing down $.46 at 120.13.
If the GLD cannot get through 121.88, I would expect a sharp sell off and profit taking to come in.
121.88 should be a strong resistance level.
XLE:
Major level - 65.63
Minor level - 64.85
Minor level - 63.28 *
Major level - 62.50
Minor level - 61.72 *
Minor level - 60.16
Major level - 59.38
The XLE is firmly above the 62.50 level, closing at 63.76 yesterday. This is significant because if it can close above 63.28 today, then it should move up to 65.63.
Lower levels should continue to act as support.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
Apple did hit the 106.25 level I have been calling for. 104.68 is the downside level. Two closes under that level and Apple should drop. Two closes above 107.81 and it should move up to 112.50.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: PNRA, ORLY, BCR, TFX, CB, JNJ, PM, MKC, EL, ALGN, D, TJX, FSLR, COR
Bearish Stocks: REGN, JCOM, VRX, AMGN, JACK, ABCO, MD, AR, KFY
Be sure to check earnings release dates.