Last week ended with the fifth consecutive higher weekly close for the S & P 500 and the other major markets.
The question is will this bull move continue this week?
At this point, the active objective for the S & P 500 remains at 2,062.50.? Friday's high was within 10 points of that objective.?
The main concern for the markets is that the VIX is headed back down to a key level of support. That would be the 12.50 level.? The VIX has reversed at this level for about three years now,? so I really do not expect anything different this time.
12.50 is the active objective for the VIX.? This is the level to watch closely.
On another note, I need to mention that this week is a short week.? Friday the markets are closed for Good Friday.
Friday, you should have been assigned on the short $15.50 calls on X.? If X gives us a decent pullback, I would look to put this position back on.
Here are the key levels for the markets.
?
VIX:
Major level - 25.00
Minor level - 23.44
Minor level - 21.88
Minor level - 20.31
Major level - 18.75
Minor level - 17.19 *
Minor level - 14.06
Major level - 12.50
The VIX closed Friday at 14.02, just four cents under the minor 14.06 level.
The objective is still down to 12.50 and look for higher levels to act as resistance.
S & P 500 Cash Index:?
Minor level - 2,078.12
Major level - 2,062.50 **
Minor level - 2,046.88
Minor level - 2,015.62 *
Major level - 2,000.00
Minor level - 1,984.38
Minor level - 1,953.12
Major level - 1,937.50
Minor level - 1,921.88
2,062.50 is still the active objective.
?
2,046.88 should act as support at this point.
To continue higher, the S & P 500 will need to get through 2,062.50.? If it can't I would expect a pullback.
Nasd 100 (QQQ):?
Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 111.71
Minor level - 107.03 *
Major level - 106.25 *
Minor level - 105.46
Minor level - 103.91
Major level - 103.13
Minor level - 102.35
Minor level - 100.78
Major level - 100.00
The objective should still be to 112.50.
Look for support at the lower levels, namely at 106.25 and 105.
TLT:?
Minor level - 132.03
Major level - 131.25
Minor level - 130.46
Minor level - 128.91*
Major level - 128.13 *
Minor level - 127.34
Minor level - 125.78
Major level - 125.00
Friday, the TLT closed above 128.91. If it can close above 128.91 today, I would expect a retest of 131.25
For the TLT to fail and head down, it will need two closes under 127.34.
Lower levels should still act as support.
GLD:
Major level - 125.00
Major level - 121.88 *
Minor level - 121.10 *
Minor level - 119.53 *
Major level - 118.75
Minor level - 117.96
Minor level - 116.41
Major level - 115.63
The objective should be to a restest of 118.75.
121.88 should be a strong resistance level, at this point.
XLE:
Major level - 65.63
Minor level - 64.85
Minor level - 63.28 *
Major level - 62.50
Minor level - 61.72 *
Minor level - 60.16
Major level - 59.38
The objective for the XLE should be to 65.63.? I would expect lower levels to act as support.?
62.50 should be support now and I would not expect the XLE to break under 59 at this point.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
Apple did hit the 106.25 level I have been calling for.? 104.68 is the downside level.
Two closes under that level and Apple should drop.? Two closes above 107.81 and it should move up to 112.50.
Not much different from Friday.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: SPG, FRT, KMB, CB, HON, FB, FXE, UPS, ITW, PSX, EL
Bearish Stocks: REGN, LLY, JACK, VRX, RH, TEVA, ALR, ANAC, RMD
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
