I am writing this update before the release of the Non Farm payroll today at 8:30 EST.? As I write this, the markets are off slightly before the report.
As you know, this can change ... and change quite significantly.
I did mention yesterday that I expected a slow day and a contraction.? And that is what happened. The S & P had about a 10 point range for the day.? This was about one half of the average true range, which is 20.71.
Based on the narrow range contraction yesterday and the Non Farm Payroll today, you should expect an expansion.
Yesterday also marked the end of the first quarter of 2016.? The market closed back at the level of the open for the year.? Since the bottom on February 11th, the S & P 500 has run 262 points.
Here are the key levels for the markets.
?
VIX:
Major level - 25.00
Minor level - 23.44
Minor level - 20.31
Major level - 18.75
Minor level - 17.19 *
Minor level - 14.06 *
Major level - 12.50
The VIX has not been able to close above the 14.06 level.? It has still acted as resistance, with the VIX hitting a high of 14.28 yesterday before settling at 13.95.
For the VIX to move up, it will need two closes above 14.06.
S & P 500 Cash Index:?
Minor level - 2,078.12
Major level - 2,062.50 *
Minor level - 2,046.88
Minor level - 2,015.62
Major level - 2,000.00
Minor level - 1,984.38
Minor level - 1,953.12
Major level - 1,937.50
Minor level - 1,921.88
The S & P 500 is hovering right around the 2,062.50 level.? 2,046.88 should act as support.
And for the S & P to move down, it would need two closes under 2,046.88.
For the shorter term, two closes above 2,070.33 and the objective would be to 2,093.80.
Resistance should be at 2,078.12 and 2,070.33.? Minor support should be at 2,054.70 as well.
Nasd 100 (QQQ):?
Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 111.71
Minor level - 110.16
Major level - 109.38
Minor level - 108.60
Minor level - 107.03
Major level - 106.25
Minor level - 105.46
Minor level - 103.91
Major level - 103.13
Just like the S & P, the QQQ had a contraction yesterday as well.? It closed at 109.20 or 16 cents under the major 109.38 level.
Minor support should be at 108.20. and 108.60.
Look for resistance at 110.16.
TLT:?
Minor level - 132.03 *
Major level - 131.25 *
Minor level - 130.46 *
Minor level - 128.91
Major level - 128.13
Minor level - 127.34
Minor level - 125.78
Major level - 125.00
The TLT closed at 130.61 yesterday, just under the major 131.25 objective.
Support should be at 130.46 and 128.91.?
GLD:
Major level - 125.00
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 121.10
Minor level - 119.53
Major level - 118.75 *
Minor level - 117.96
Minor level - 116.41 *
Major level - 115.63
The GLD closed at 117.64.? This was the second day closing under 117.96, so the objective should be to a retest of 115.63.
Resistance should be at 118.75.? To move higher, it will need two closes above 119.53.
XLE:
Major level - 65.63
Minor level - 64.85
Minor level - 63.28
Major level - 62.50
Minor level - 61.72 *
Minor level - 60.16
Major level - 59.38
The XLE would need two closes under 61.72 to move down to 59.38, which should be a major support level.
To move higher, the XLE will need to get through 62.50 and have two closes above 63.28.
I would not expect a sell off to exceed the 56 area.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
The upside objective for Apple should still be to 112.50.? Support should be at 107.81.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: ACN, BCR, FB, JNJ, UPS, VMC, ITW, NOC, XOM, LNT
Bearish Stocks: GD, JACK, LULU, BURL, BLUE, SHLD, KR, AZN, ALDR
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
