For all of 2016, financial markets have traded off of the assumption that gridlock would continue in Washington, DC.
Markets hate change, and love the status quo, predictability, and certainty.
Last week that assumption was turned on its head, thanks to the complete collapse of the Trump presidential campaign for reasons I am sure you are all too well aware of.
Clinton is now even or ahead in all 14 battleground states, many by double digits, and her standing in the polls is soaring like a hot Silicon Valley IPO.
Suddenly, the prospect of Democratic control of the White House, the Senate, the House of Representatives, and the Supreme Court has been thrust under the noses of traders and investors everywhere, and they don?t like the smell.
This would represent change and in a big way.
Although still unlikely, here?s what such a game-changing outcome would deliver:
* The next three Supreme Court nominations, creating a liberal court for the next 40 years.
*Higher taxes for the wealthy, lower taxes for the poor.
*More regulation of banks through an updated Dodd-Frank.
*Regulation of pharmaceuticals through an Obamacare upgrade.
*Limited gun control (full autos, large magazines, silencers, and enhanced registration requirements for those on the no-fly list and the mentally ill).
*An end to Citizens United which permits unlimited anonymous corporate campaign donations.
*Voter rights will be expanded for minorities.
*Women?s health rights will be expanded in the most pro-choice manner possible.
*Globalization continues, with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) renegotiated and passed by another name.
Maybe Trump can pull his chestnuts out of the fire at the last presidential debate in Las Vegas on Wednesday, October 19.
But I doubt it.
If anything, he is likely to be more abusive, shrill, threatening, and deranged than in the past. At this point, he has nothing to lose.
Can Hillary stand up to Trump?s withering fire? We?ll find out soon enough.
Markets are waiting with baited breath.
Certainly the Las Vegas debate will be the preeminent market risk event of the week.
Monday, October 17th at 9:15 AM EST, we get September Industrial Production which was a yawn last month, but should show an improvement this month.
On Tuesday, October 18th at 10:00 AM EST we learn the NAHB Home Market Index.
On Wednesday, October 19th at 8:30 AM EST, the September Housing Starts are published. We?ll see how quickly rising mortgage interest rates are slowing the housing market.
The all important Fed Beige Book is out at 2:00 PM EST, giving us yet another read on the economy.
If you have trouble sleeping at night, the final presidential debate will keep you riveted to your TV screen. That starts at 9:00 PM EST.
On Thursday, October 20th at 8:30 AM EST we get the Weekly Jobless Claims which should confirm that employment remains at four-decade highs.
Friday, October 21st at 1:00 PM delivers us the Baker Hughes Rig Count. Worryingly, the trend has been up for the past 15 out of the past 16 weeks.
This should help cap oil prices for the short term which is what my (USO) trade is all about.
All in all, I expect us to continue trading in narrow ranges into the presidential election. Then, watch out!
Good luck and good trading.? Keep your hard hat on.
John Thomas
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader
