While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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Modest moves continued again yesterday, with the S & P 500 closing 3.04 points to the downside at 2,388.13.
The low for the day was 2,379.75, within the previously identified support area from last week's weekly price bar.? As you can recall, I have been mentioning the? 2,377.27 to 2,384 area as support from last week.
From there, the market rallied back to close at 2,388.13.
The range for the day was another contraction.? For the day, the range was 10.07, compared to the average true range of 14.83.
So, what does this imply?
First off, the S & P 500 had already confirmed a move up to the 2,406.30 level.
The fact that the market was able to close above the minor 2,386.70 level still projects a bias to the upside.
Having said that, the key level will be 2,398.48, because it could offer possible resistance.? A close above that level today would be bullish.
With a series of contractions, we know there will be an expansion.? The question is when.
Perhaps tomorrow, with the release of the Non Farm Payroll at 8:30 EST.
For the market to continue to move up, you want to see the VIX continue to break to the downside.? I still expect resistance on the VIX at higher levels.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 14.45
Major level: 14.06
Minor level: 13.67
Minor level: 12.89
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 12.11
Minor level: 11.33
Major level: 10.94 <
Minor level: 10.55 <
Minor level:? 9.77
Major level:? 9.38 Strong support
11.33 should still offer resistance.? I would also expect resistance at 10.94.
Watch 10.35 for possible support.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,406.30 <
Minor level: 2,398.48 **
Minor level: 2,382.82
Major level: 2,375.00
Minor level: 2,367.20
Minor level: 2,351.60
Major level: 2,343.80
Minor level: 2,335.98
Objective is still to 2,406.30.
2,382.82 and 2,384.80 should offer support.? Also, watch the 2,386.70 level today.
On the upside, I expect resistance at 2,390.60.? If the market can clear this level, it should then become support.
QQQ: ?
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
Minor level: 133.60
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
The QQQ closed at 136.99, just above the minor 136.72 level.? To move to 134.38, the QQQ would need two closes under that level.
136.72 should also be minor support. Minor resistance is at 137.89.
IWM:
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85 ***
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
The IWM came to within 19 cents of the 137.50 level, which should be support.
139.84 could be minor resistance.
TLT: ?
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.09 **
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.96 ?
The TLT hit a high of 122.39, just under the minor 122.66 level.? To move higher, the TLT would need two closes above 122.66.
A break under the major 121.88 level and the TLT could head to 115.
GLD: ?
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88 **
Minor level: 120.32 <
Minor level: 119.53 <
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41
Major level: 115.63
The GLD hit the 118.75 objective and broke under it.? The GLD closed at 117.98.
Two closes under 117.97 and the GLD should test 115.63.
117.19 should be minor support.? 119.14 is minor resistance.
XLE:
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97 <<
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
The objective remains down to 65.63.? Longer term I am looking for a move down to 62.
67.58 should be minor resistance.? 67.19 could offer minor support.? A break under 67.19 and expect the XLE to head lower.
FXY:
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.67
Minor level: 87.89
Major level: 87.50 **
Minor level: 87.11 <
Minor level: 86.33
Major level: 85.94? <
Major level: 84.38
The FXY closed under 85.94, closing at 85.47 yesterday. ?
85.16 is a minor support level. A break under that level and expect the FXY to continue lower.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 150, 143.75, 137.50, 131.25, and 125.
Apple reported and gappped down and found support at 144.27, just above the 143.75 level.? It rallied back to close down only 45 cents on the day.
148.44 should be minor resistance and 146 should be support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, GOOGL, GD, ANTM, COST, JAZZ, UNH, HON, MON, BABA, DLR, WDC, CRM, PNW, CAKE,
Bearish Stocks: SJM, CL, ESRX, MNST, OXY, HIBB, SBH, HLX
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
