While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
AMC Long at $15.27
Premium Collected - $3.10
UNIT Long at $17.00
Premium Collected - $0.35
VRX Long at $16.40
Short April 6th-$16.50 Call @ ($0.50)
Premium Collected - $0.50
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The short $15 call on AMC expired on Thursday. At this point, you should have collected $3.10 in call premium on the AMC position. The premiums collected are about 20% of the purchase price of the stock.
The S & P 500 ended the shortened trading week closing 52.61 points to the upside. The market closed at 2,640.87.
The weekly price bar formed an inside bar. This is a bar with a lower high and a higher low.
It typifies a range contraction. And last week was no different. The range for the week was 81.72 points. It was actually larger than the average true range, which is 77.35 points on a weekly basis. But the range last week was well below the prior week, which was 158.49 points.
The close should be a level to watch. And pre market, the S & P 500 is trading about 10 points to the downside. Watch to see if the market can reclaim the close, which was 2,640.87. If it can, it should offer support. If not, I would expect the market to continue lower.
Also, the support level from last week's weekly price bar is in the 2,630 to 2,634 area.
The short term charts remain bearish for the S & P 500, which indicates that the market should continue lower.
The question is where should this pullback end?
At this point, I can see a test of the 2,500 level. And the 2,656 level should act as resistance.
But, I would expect strong support at the 2,500 level. If it is violated, it would tell us to expect the market to continue lower.
This Friday will be the release of the Non Farm Payroll at 8:30 EST. Excess volatility can happen after a marketwide report like this.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44 **
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94
The VIX closed at 19.97 yesterday. The downside objective should still be to 18.75.
And I would expect support at the 18.875 level. 21.88 should offer resistance.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30 <
Minor level: 2,636.75 **
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10
Minor level: 2,558.58
Minor level: 2,519.53
Major level: 2,500.00
Support should continue to be at 2,602.50. And watch the 2,627 level for support. It will most likely be tested today.
2,597.70 is a minor support level. And on the upside, 2,656.30 should be resistance.
QQQ:
Minor level: 165.63
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 159.38 **
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 146.88
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50
The QQQ closed at 160.13. The QQQ should test the 150 level. But, there are a few support levels where it should bounce on the way down.
Minor support is at 157.81.
IWM:
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13 <
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78 **
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
The IWM closed at 151.83, closing just under the minor 152.35 level. 151.17 should offer minor support.
153.13 should offer resistance.
TLT:
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27 **
Major level: 121.88 < Hit
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
The TLT closed at 121.90. The TLT hit the 121.88 level.
120.31 should continue to offer support. To move higher, the TLT will need two closes above 122.27.
GLD:
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.87
The GLD closed at 125.79. It closed one cent above the minor 125.78 level. This tells us the GLD would still need two closes under 125.78 to move lower.
125 should continue to be support. 126.56 should offer resistance.
XLE:
Minor level: 76.95
Major level: 76.56
Minor level: 76.17
Minor level: 75.39
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63
The XLE closed at 67.41. It continues to bounce around the midband. And it still has resistance at the 200 ema.
66.41 is minor support. The 60 minute chart has moved into an uptrend.
FXY:
Major level: 92.19
Minor level: 92.00
Minor level: 91.61
Major level: 91.41
Minor level: 91.22
Minor level: 90.83 **
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Minor level: 88.09
The FXY closed Thursday at 90.11. 90.43 is a minor resistance level. And minor support should be at 89.84.
The FXY is bouncing just under the upper band on the daily chart. The upper band is 91.21.
AAPL:
Minor level: 178.91 <
Major level: 178.13
Minor level: 177.35
Minor level: 175.78
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Apple closed at 167.78. Biased for a move down to 150. And 168.75 and 175 should be resistance.
Apple is still in an uptrend on its 60 minute chart, but is close to moving into a downtrend. If that happens, it should help confirm the downside objectives.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: DPZ, SBAC, GWW, AMT, RL, CCI, EXP, PSX, LULU, PGR, PEG, DK, WY, CNQ, LPX, MDU
Bearish Stocks: TSLA, WHR, ALXN, ZBH, SWKS, ALB, ALK, MDSO, DIS, WAGE, SIG, WPZ, JNPR, BITA
Be sure to check earnings release dates.