While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65
RRC Long at $11.85
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RIG Long at $8.81
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FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.55
FCX Long at $12.74
Total Premium Collected $0.48
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All three short call positions expired on Friday. So, the profit has been booked on the positions and it frees the positions up to sell more calls. Look for alerts this week.
Not only did Friday close out the week, but it closed out the first quarter of 2019. And they announced that this has been the strongest quarter since 2009.
Since the market bottomed back on December 24th 2018, it was now run 7 levels. And it is back above the major 2,812.50 level.
In looking at the March monthly price bar, we see that it closed at 81% of the range. So, this puts the odds in favor of continuing higher.
The only negative was that the range for the month was only 138 points. With a monthly average true range of 164 points, this represented a contraction of 84%.
And in February, the market had a 79% contraction. But, recall that the monthly price bar for January was 157% of the average.
So, the year started with an expansion followed by two contractions. With this type of price action, the third price bar after the expansion should attempt to replicate the expansion.
If this holds up, this would mean we should get a strong month in April.
I do need to point out that the S & P 500 is back above the upper band on the monthly chart. That level is 2,820.33 and should be a level to watch.
Support levels from the March monthly bar are at 2,816 and if that is violated, at 2,791.
Scoping back to the weekly price bar, we see that for the week, the S & P 500 closed 33.69 points higher. This reversed the loss from the prior week.
The support area from last week's price bar is in the 2,810 to 2,815 area.
In looking at Friday's daily bar, we see that the market had a bullish gap of 12.83 points. And the S & P 500 closed at 90% of the daily bar.
This does tell us that the market should take out the high before the low.
And it should happen right at the open as the S & P 500 is trading sharply higher before the open. The S & P 500 is trading almost 20 points higher which would suggest an open around 2,854.
Support from Friday's daily bar should be at the high which was 2,836.03.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed out the day at 13.71. Target should be back to the major 12.50 level. The question is, what will happen when we get there?
As you know, this is a level where the VIX will typically find support. I will continue to monitor the VIX as we trade closer to it.
14.85 should be resistance. And 14.06 should also offer resistance.
SPX:
Major level: 2,890.60 <
Minor level: 2,871.08
Minor level: 2,832.03 **
Major level: 2,812.50 <
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
With a close above 2,832.03 on Friday, a close today above that level and the objective should be up to 2,890.60.
The S & P 500 did clear the 2,822.30 level I mentioned Friday and it held as support. The low of the day was just a few points under it.
Both the 30 and 60 minute charts continue to be bullish. So, bias is still to the upside. Technical support is at 2,815.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25 <
Minor level: 179.69 **
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
The QQQ closed at 179.66. The upside objective should be to 181.25. Look for a push up to the 181 area.
Like the S & P 500, both short term charts are bullish. Technical support is at 179 and the QQQ held support there yesterday.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44
The IWM closed at 153.09. Look for a test of 156.25.
But, we still have the midband overhead as resistance. That level is 155.93. Considering all the major markets have cleared their midbands, I do expect the IWM to follow suit.
151.56 should offer support now and 153.13 as well. And 151.80 should offer technical support.
TLT:
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56 <
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
The TLT closed at 126.44. If the TLT cannot hold the major 126.56 level, I would expect a pullback. Overbought in the short term.
If the TLT takes out 125.56, I would expect it to head higher. A close on the line suggests a move higher.
Still above the upper band which is now 125.71.
125 should be support.
GLD:
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.09
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
The GLD closed at 122.01 and hit the 121.88 level already. If the GLD breaks under 121.88, a drop to 115.63 is possible.
The next minor level on the downside is 121.09. If the GLD holds at this level, it should bounce. If not, look for it to drop.
The 60 minute chart is still in a downtrend. So, weakness could come in the short term. 123 is technical resistance.
XLE:
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
The XLE closed at 66.12. At this point, I would expect a move up to 68.75.
But, the XLE is still trading just under the midband on its daily chart. That price level is 68.79. The XLE will have to, of course, clear this level.
The XLE should open above 66. Look for that area to be support on a pullback.
Short term charts remain bullish. Buy against support.
FXY:
Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50
Major level: 86.72 <
Major level: 85.94 <
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY closed at 86.11. Flirting the midband which is now 86.26. Wait for a decisive move in either direction around the midband.
At this point, if the FXY cannot clear the midband, I would expect it to head lower.
The 86 area should offer support. A break and it should drop.
AAPL:
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 198.44
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19 **
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Predicted High: 192.50
Predicted Low: 187.40
Apple closed at 189.95. Watch to see if the midband holds as support. The midband is 186.83 and it is starting to look like it is holding as support.
And both short term charts remain bullish, so wait for an entry to go long.
189.06 should offer support and a great place to be.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: CMG, AVGO, COST, MA, SHOP, AMT, MCD, CLX, HON, V, KMB, DRI, HSY, PYPL, YUM, WING, EPR, WPC, SBUX, CLH, THS, RIO
Bearish Stocks: NOC, LLL, HUM, BIDU, CTXS, ALL, SWKS, SINA, WDC, GOOS, FLIR, Z, YELP,
Be sure to check earnings release dates.