7While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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Yesterday closed out what was one of the worst first quarters in the history of the markets. I suspect we have learned rather quickly what a pandemic can do to the financial markets.
And in my area, it doesn't seem to get better.
They're setting up makeshift hospitals in various public spaces. They set up one even in Central Park in New York City.
I have to admit it is tough to focus on daily basic functions when you continually hear about people you know passing away from this dreaded virus.
On fact, one gentleman I know died this past weekend and I spoke with him at the beginning of the month.
Since I do not feel sick, I have to believe he caught the virus after we spoke.
I have to admit that he had a multitude of health issues. The more issues you have, the more at risk you are. The data seems to support that.
And I have heard of people who have survived the virus with relatively little issues.
I know this is not the topic of a publication that focuses on the financial markets, but real life has a habit of getting in the way.
And quite frankly, I am not sure how we even try and be optimistic about these markets.
We now have multiple industries in complete chaos. And how they come out of this once this is under control is another issue.
Sorry to sound so somber, but when I see makeshift hospitals being set up in Central Park, I tend to get quite worried.
Anyway, I will get back to the markets.
As I write this, the S & P is trading about 90 points lower.
The main probem I find is that option pricing has skyrocketed because of the fear in the markets.
This makes it rather difficult to make a decent return.
This is why I stick to selling options, as opposed to buying them.
The general rule of the markets is to buy options when they are cheap and sell them when they are expensive.
I will review the monthly price bar on today's webinar, so I will not cover it here.
But yesterday's daily price bar was 42.06 points lower.
The day closed out at 2,584.59. And the day closed out at 19% of the range of the daily bar.
This certainly suggests that today should be violated before the low.
And with the S & P trading about 90 points lower as I write this, the market should open about 76 points below yesterday's low.
So, we should violate yesterday's low right at the open.
Yesterday's low was 2,571.15. Watch this level if the market does rally.
The S & P got as high as 2,641.39 before selling off.
As I said yesterday, I would have liked a close above 2,633.89 or above 2,637.01 to suggest the rally would continue higher.
The S & P got just above it before selling off.
The key level for today will be the lower band on the daily chart.
That price level is 2,486. If the market cannot hold that price, watch out below.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 40.62
Minor level: 39.84 **
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.16
Major level: 34.38
Minor level: 33.60
Minor level: 32.03
The VIX closed at 53.54. The VIX closed 3.54 points lower. The VIX was down 6.2% for the day.
Even with this sell-off, the VIX is still trading above its upper band on the daily chart. That level is 52.79.
That level should be support until it is violated.
The 69 area should be resistance.
S & P 500:
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.75
Minor level: 2,851.65
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30 <
Minor level: 2,617.25
Minor level: 2,539.06 **
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,460.95
Minor level: 2,382.85
Major level: 2,304.75
Minor level: 2,226.65
The S & P closed at 2,584.59. Watch for support at the major 2,500 level.
The next level under 2,5000, should be the minor 2,460.95 level.
QQQ:
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19 **
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
The QQQ closed at 190.40. At this point, support should be at the 189.06 level and the major 187.50 level. A break under 189.06 and it should be resistance.
Technical support is around 185. And resistance is at 195
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 114.46.
Still trading below the lower band on the daily chart, which is now 119.65. This level should be resistance, until the IWM can close above it. The IWM is getting close to the lower band.
The 113.50 area should provide technical support.
TLT:
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.48
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
Minor level: 146.10
The TLT closed at 164.73. The TLT closed above the upper band on the daily chart, which is 163.94.
Watch the upper band for support. And watch this level again today.
Resistance should be around 172. And support at 164.
GLD:
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35 **
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.67
Major level: 146.89
Minor level: 146.11
The GLD closed at 148.05.
Watch the minor 149.22 level today. The GLD needs to clear this level to head higher.
The 152 area should now be resistance. And 138 should be support.
XLE:
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.47
Minor level: 53.90
Major level: 53.12
Minor level: 52.34
Minor level: 50.78
Major level: 50.00
Minor level: 49.22
Minor level: 47.65
Major level: 46.88
Minor level: 46.09 **
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
The XLE closed at 29.06. Still about $5 under the lower band. The lower band on the daily chart is now 34.50.
The 23 area should now be technical support.
AAPL:
Major level: 325.00
Minor level: 321.88
Minor level: 315.63
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88 **
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50 <
Minor level: 284.38
Minor level: 278.13
Major level: 275.00
Minor level: 271.88
Apple closed at 254.29. Apple needs to clear 259 to head higher.
Apple is still in an uptrend on its daily chart. It is above the midband, which is 237.41. This should now be support until it is violated.
The 245 area should be technical support. Resistance is at 280.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: TLT, TDOC, CTXS, QDEL, ONGM
Bearish Stocks: KEYS, WCN, LGND, CHD, MMS, DDS, WWE, ASGN, DRQ, ARCH, ALTR
