While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
UNIT Long at $17.00
Premium Collected - $0.35
VRX Long at $16.40
Premium Collected - $0.79
Short April 20th-$16.50 call @ $0.29
SNAP Long at $14.54
Short April 13th-$15 call @ $0.30
Premium Collected - $0.30
KMI Long September $15 call @ $1.10
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Yesterday you should have closed out the AMC position. The deal resulted in a gain of about 32%. 70% of that gain was the result of selling call options against the position.
You should have also added a short call on the VRX position. Those calls expire next Friday.
For this week, you should have one position that expires. And that is the short $15 call on SNAP.
Now back to the market.
The S & P 500 shrugged off the testimony of Mr. Zuckerberg and rallied to close at 2,656.87. It closed to the upside 43.71 points.
The intraday range was only 29.67 because of the bullish gap. At the open, the market was up 25.25 points.
I suspect the only thing that would have made yesterday's rally more complete was if it closed above the high of the day from the bearish day on Friday.
The high on Friday was 2,656.88 and yesterday closed one cent under it.
Though yesterday did close above the high from Monday's inside bar, which was 2,653.55. But, the market did manage to close above the major 2,656.30 level.
Yesterday's low was 2,635.78. This was about one point under the minor 2,636.75 level.
So, what should we look for today?
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading to the downside about 25 points.
This would imply an open at around 2,632, which is right around the midpoint from Monday's inside bar.
Watch to see if this level holds. If it doesn't, a drop to the 2,621 to 2,625 area would be expected.
Also, 2,627 is a minor resistance level that should be watched on this sell off.
Earnings are slow as we wind down into the end of this season. Friday, will hear from a few of the big banks, including C, JPM and WFC.
Continue to monitor the longer term levels for the market.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44 **
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94
The VIX closed at 20.47 yesterday. It closed 1.30 points to the downside.
The VIX is trading between the major 25 and 18.75 levels. 21.88 should be resistance. Watch the minor 21.09 level today. A break under it and the VIX should continue lower.
Watch again today the 21.09 level. If the VIX cannot clear 21.09, I would expect a drop to 18.75.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30 ****
Minor level: 2,636.75 <
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10
Minor level: 2,558.58
Minor level: 2,519.53
Major level: 2,500.00
The S & P 500 closed virtually on the 2,656.30 level. On the downside, support should be at the 2,636 level and the minor 2,627 level.
To move higher, the S & P 500 will have to hold the 2,656.30 level.
Short term trends remain bearish, but technical support is at 2,626.
QQQ:
Minor level: 165.63
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 159.38 **
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 146.88
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50
The QQQ closed at 161.21. Minor support should now be at 159.38 and 157.81.
I would expect the 159.38 level to hold as support. If it can't, look for the QQQ to move lower.
IWM:
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13 **
Minor level: 152.35 <
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
The IWM closed at 153.38. The IWM got above the 153.13 level. If the IWM does pullback, I would expect strong support at the 150 level.
152.34 is a minor support level.
TLT:
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88 **
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70 <
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
The TLT closed at 121.08. The TLT closed 80 cents under the 121.88 level.
120.70 is a minor support level.
Daily trend is bearish.
GLD:
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.87
The GLD closed at 127.12. Looking for a retest of 125. Minor resistance is at 126.56. If the GLD cannot clear this level, I expect a test of 125.
And minor resistance is at 127.34. If the GLD clears this level, it should move up to 128.13.
XLE:
Minor level: 76.95
Major level: 76.56
Minor level: 76.17
Minor level: 75.39
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53 **
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
The XLE closed at 69.91. The XLE finally broke out to the upside!
A close today above 69.53 and the XLE should test 71.88.
A retest of the upper channel could be possible, but at this point the next minor move will most likely test the upper band, which is 76.
FXY:
Major level: 92.19
Minor level: 92.00
Minor level: 91.61
Major level: 91.41
Minor level: 91.22
Minor level: 90.83
Major level: 89.06 **
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Minor level: 88.09
The FXY closed at 89.39. The FXY is 33 cents above the major 89.06 level.
At this point, I expect a drop to the major 88.28 level and for that level to offer support.
AAPL:
Minor level: 178.91
Major level: 178.13
Minor level: 177.35
Minor level: 175.78
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Apple closed at 173.25. Apple is set to open around 172. Based on this, look for support at 171.88. Watch this level. If Apple breaks under it, a move to 168.75 would be expected.
If 171.88 can hold, look for a move up to 175.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: HUM, MCD, PVH, BURL, RL, KSU, CLB, PSX, VLO, LULU, YUM, KORS, LEN, COP, CLR, APC, HFC, MTH
Bearish Stocks: AVGO, ADS, WHR, CB, ALXN, DGX, WST, MDT, TAP, WBA, CERN, LUV, CTRP. ALKS, CRUS, BEN
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
