While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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On yesterday's webinar, I tried to share how you can use the resistance levels to your advantage. This becomes especially true when an upside or downside objective is confirmed.
If you were not able to attend live, I would suggest you listen to the recording in the members' area. If you have questions after that, then email me and I will address all questions in future webinars.
And speaking of downloads, the March 2019 buybacks should be posted in the members' area as well.
For last month, there were only seven announcements. This is considerably lower than the trend from last year. We will continue to track this to see if this trend is continuing.
Yesterday, the S & P 500 moved back higher. For the day, it closed 10.01 points higher to close at 2,888.21.
We had expected the pullback on Tuesday based on the S &P 500 taking out the upside objective we were calling for.
And the market came down to the level that should have been support.
The VIX did reverse and drop. Though the VIX is back down to long term support, we still expected resistance at higher levels.
And the VIX complied, topping out and closing 0.98 points to the downside.
But, yesterday was another day of contractions. The intra day range was only 10.58 points. With the average daily range now reading 23.41 points, the range for the day was less than 50% of the average.
Having said that, the market did close at 86% of the daily price bar. This suggests that the odds of violating yesterday's high before the low is almost 90%.
And pre market, the S & P 500 is trading about 4 points higher. If this trading holds up through the open, the market would open above yesterday's high.
The high was 2,889.71, so watch this level to offer support on a pullback.
The support area from yesterday's daily bar is in the 2,884 to 2,885 area. The other key level to watch is 2,888.46.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28 **
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed out yesterday at 13.30, down 0.98 points for the day. Watch the 13.28 level today.
If the VIX opens below 13.28, I would expect resistance there. If it clears this level, look for a bounce.
Minor resistance should be at 13.67.
SPX:
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,849.25
Minor level: 2,910.15 **
Major level: 2,890.60 <
Minor level: 2,871.08 **
Minor level: 2,832.03
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
The minor 2,880.90 should continue to offer support. Yesterday's low came to 2,879.13 or about 1 point under it.
The minor 2,887 level should also offer support. And if the S & P 500 can close above 2,887 today, I would expect a move up to 2,905.
Both the 30 and 60 minute charts continue to be bullish. 2,881 is technical support.
Continue to buy against support.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
The QQQ closed at 185.47. The upside target is still to 187.50. And the QQQ is still within 2 points of it.
185.16 is also a short term support level. A close today above this level would suggest a move up to 187.50.
Like the S & P 500, both short term charts are bullish. Technical support is at 184. Continue to buy against support.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 < HIT!
Minor level: 154.69 **
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
The IWM closed at 157.31. The IWM did reclaim the midband on the daily chart which now reads 156.15. But, we were biased for a violation of this level.
Now, the key will be if the IWM can hold it.
By clearing the 156.25 level, this should now offer support.
TLT:
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83 **
Major level: 123.44 <
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
The TLT closed at 124.28. Biased for a retest of 125.
123.83 should be minor support. And if that does not hold, look for 123.44 to hold.
Technical support is at 123. And there is minor support at 123.83.
GLD:
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66 **
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.09 **
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
The GLD closed at 123.53. I would expect a retest of 125 at this point.
122.66 should now be minor support.
The 60 minute chart still remains in a downtrend. But the GLD cleared the midband which is 123.25. Look for support at this level now.
A violation and the GLD should drop.
XLE:
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97 **
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
The XLE closed at 67.33. Still, expect a move up to 68.75. The XLE will have to recoup 67.97 to move higher.
67.19 is a minor support level. This should still be a support level. If it holds, I would expect the XLE to move higher.
The XLE continues to move towards the midband which is 68.84. Clearing that level is another issue. But, I am biased for the XLE to clear the midband.
I would expect strong support at the 65.63 level.
Short term charts remain bullish. Buy against support.
FXY:
Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50
Major level: 86.72
Major level: 85.94 <
Minor level: 85.75 **
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY closed at 85.91. Watch to see if the FXY can clear 85.94. 3 cents away now.
If the FXY can clear 85.94, look for it to head higher.
85.74 is a minor support level. Technical support should now be around 85.
AAPL:
Major level: 206.25
Minor level: 204.69
Minor level: 201.56
Major level: 200.00 <
Minor level: 198.44 **
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Apple closed at 200.62. Now that 200 has been hit, I would expect support at 198.44.
The next level higher is 201.56. Apple will need to clear this level to move up to 206.
Technical support is around 198 as well. Still, buy against support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: ULTA, AVGO, FLT, COST, MMM, AMGN, MCD, OLED, CMI, ALXN, XLNX, WST, PYPL, SBUX, FL, CREE, CSCO, CRUS, BEN
Bearish Stocks: PEN, RH, FANG, SQ, ABC, XEC, COP, MC, SAIL, BITA
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
