While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.13
RIG Short April 18th - $9 call @ $0.32
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
Short April 12th - $17.50 call @ $0.25
FCX Long at $12.74
Total Premium Collected $0.73
Short April 12th - $13.50 call @ $0.25
CLW Long May - $20.00 call for $2.00
CLW Short May - $22.50 call for $1.00
FB Long April 12th - $172.50 Put for $1.64
FB Short April 12th - $167.50 Put for $0.58
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For today, you should have a few positions that expire. The first is the short $17.50 call on FEYE. FEYE closed yesterday below the strike, so the calls should expire worthless today.
The second position is the short $13.50 call on FCX. FCX closed out yesterday just under $13.50. It is possible these calls will be assigned today. Hold the position until the close, unless I issue a trade alert.
The final position is the short debit spread on FB which will no doubt expire worthless. As I said the other day, the key on these short term trades is to not overtrade them. You want to be able to live another day and if you followed the allocation on this trade, you should be able to.
Onto the markets.
The S & P 500 had a very modest move yesterday. For the day, it was up 0.11 points, hardly moving the needle.
The market closed at 2,888.32 and the low for the day was 2,881.99. The low was within a point of the minor 2,880.90 level.
And once again, the market contracted. The range for the day was only 11.43 points. The daily average true range is 22.56 points. So, once again the range for the day was about one half the average.
This continues the number of days contracting. So, this certainly does suggest that we will see an expansion.
And perhaps today is the day we will.
Pre open the S & P 500 is trading about 14 points higher. If this holds into the open, we should open around 2,902.32, which is almost 12 points above our major level of 2,890.60.
And I do need to point out that yesterday's close was just above this key level.
This should suggest that 2,890.60 should be support on a pullback.
And support should also be around 2,888 to 2,890. This is the support area from yesterday's daily bar.
Scoping out to look at the weekly price bar, we see that it is also having a major contraction. The range for the week through yesterday is only 22.62 points. Compared with the weekly average true range of 76 points, the range so far is about one-third of the average.
If the market moved to the weekly average today, it would mean that the S & P 500 would rally over 50 points.
Can this happen? It is possible, but I even think a rally about one half that amount would project a range for today back to the daily average true range.
This to me, is more than possible.
This would project a move up to 2,918.57.
An interesting point of fact is this. The range for the week so far is 22.62 points which also just happens to be the daily average true range.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28 **
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed out yesterday at 13.02, down 0.28 points for the day. Watch the 13.28 level today. The VIX got 30 cents above the 13.28 level before dropping.
13.28 should still be resistance. 13.09 is a minor level and if the VIX cannot clear this level, I expect a drop to 12.50.
SPX:
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,849.25
Minor level: 2,910.15 **
Major level: 2,890.60 <
Minor level: 2,871.08 **
Minor level: 2,832.03
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
Watch the 2,905.30 level on the upside. If the S & P 500 can clear this level, I would expect it to continue higher.
2,880.90 should continue to act as support and of course the major 2,890.60 level.
Both the 30 and 60 minute charts continue to be bullish. 2,883 is technical support.
Continue to buy against support.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
The QQQ closed at 185.03. The upside target is still to 187.50. And the QQQ is still within 2 points of it.
If the QQQ can clear 185.94, look for it to continue to push higher.
Like the S & P 500, both short term charts are bullish. Technical support is at 184.50.
Continue to buy against support.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 < HIT!
Minor level: 154.69 **
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
The IWM closed at 157.11. The IWM is holding a point above the midband. If it can hold the midband today, look for a move higher.
Now, the key will be if the IWM can hold it.
By clearing the 156.25 level, this should now offer support. 157.03 is minor support.
TLT:
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83 **
Major level: 123.44 <
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
The TLT closed at 123.55. The TLT did hit the 123.44 level. The question now is will this hold?
If it can't, look for a drop to 121.88. Two closes under 123.05 would confirm that move.
I am expecting another rally to test 125 at some point.
GLD:
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66 **
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.09 **
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
The GLD closed at 121.95. I would expect a retest of 125 at this point. But, two closes under 121.09 would suggest a drop to 120.31 before a move higher.
The 60 minute chart still remains in a downtrend. But the GLD cleared the midband which is 123.25. The 123 area should now be resistance.
A violation and the GLD should drop.
XLE:
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97 **
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
The XLE closed at 67.38. Still, expect a move up to 68.75. The XLE will have to recoup 67.97 to move higher.
67.19 is a minor support level. This should still be a support level. If it holds, I would expect the XLE to move higher.
The XLE continues to move towards the midband which is 68.84. Clearing that level is another issue. But, I am biased for the XLE to clear the midband.
I would expect strong support at the 65.63 level.
Short term charts remain bullish. Buy against support.
FXY:
Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50
Major level: 86.72
Major level: 85.94 <
Minor level: 85.75 **
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY closed at 85.40. The FXY could not clear 85.94 and sold off.
Looking for a drop to 85.16. And I would expect support at that level. Technical resistance is around 86.
AAPL:
Major level: 206.25
Minor level: 204.69
Minor level: 201.56
Major level: 200.00 <
Minor level: 198.44 **
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Apple closed at 198.95. Now that 200 has been hit, I would expect support at 198.44.
The next level higher is 201.56. Apple will need to clear this level to move up to 206.
Technical support is around 198 as well. Still buy against support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: ULTA, AVGO, FLT, COST, MMM, AMGN, MCD, OLED, CMI, ALXN, XLNX, WST, PYPL, SBUX, FL, CREE, CSCO, CRUS, BEN
Bearish Stocks: PEN, RH, FANG, SQ, ABC, XEC, COP, MC, SAIL, BITA
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
