While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
UNIT Long at $17.00
Premium Collected - $0.35
VRX Long at $16.40
Premium Collected - $0.79
Short April 20th-$16.50 call @ $0.29
SNAP Long at $14.54
Premium Collected - $0.30
TEVA Long $18.06
Short April 27th - $18.50 call @ $0.35
Premium collected - $0.35
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If you followed the alert on VRX, you would be short the $16.50 call that expires tomorrow. That is the only open position that expires this week.
VRX closed yesterday just above the strike price so I will be monitoring the position to see if any adjustments should be made. You will receive a separate email in the event I adjust the position.
The S & P 500 closed at 2,708.64. It closed up for the day 2.25 points. The range for the day was only 13.86 points, and the daily price bar formed a doji bar.
As you know, a doji bar often means indecision. It can also signify a pause before a continuation.
And by definition, a doji bar is a contraction. Compared to the average true range of 42.57 points, yesterday's range was only about a third of the average.
The question for us is this going to be a continuation or a reversal?
To help us determine which event should occur, we need to monitor the key levels from yesterday's doji bar. Those levels include the high, close and low.
The high and low from yesterday are 2,717.49 and 2,703.63. And the close is 2,708.64.
Generally, price should continue in the direction of the violation of the high or low.
The other factors to consider are the intra day charts.
The 30 minute chart is in an uptrend and the 60 minute chart is still trending down. But, price is above the midband and 200 ema on the 60 minute chart, so those levels should offer support on a pullback.
The 200 ema is 2,675.57 and the midband is 2,688.82.
Also, we need to consider our resistance levels.
We still have an active objective up to the 2,734.40 level. The minor 2,700.20 level should offer support. This is a level to watch today.
But, the VIX is oversold, so a bounce is not unexpected. However, I would expect higher levels in the VIX to act as resistance.
Continue to monitor the longer term levels for the market.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19 **
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94
The VIX closed at 15.60 yesterday. This was the second day closing under the minor 15.63 support level. The VIX should retest the 12.50 level.
14.06 is a minor support level. A break under that level will further confirm a drop to 12.50. 16.41 should be minor resistance. If the VIX rallies today, watch the 16.41 level to see if it acts as resistance.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40 **
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83 <
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10
Minor level: 2,558.58
The objective should now be to the 2,734.40 level.
Minor support should now be at 2,700.20 and 2,690.40. 2,727 should be minor resistance. Clearing this level and the S & P 500 should run to 2,734.
QQQ:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 171.88
Minor level: 165.63 **
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 159.38
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 146.88
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50
The QQQ closed at 166.44, closing again above the minor 165.63 level. This now puts the objective for the QQQ at the 175 level.
Minor resistance is at 167.19. Minor support should be at 164.84. And at 165.63.
IWM:
Major level: 159.38 <
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03 **
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
The IWM closed at 157.48. With a close above 157.03 yesterday, the objective is now 159.38.
157.03 and 156.25 should be support.
Technical support is also right at the midband on the 60 minute chart, which is now154.01.
TLT:
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88 **
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70 <
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
The TLT closed at 120.30. The TLT failed to close above 120.70, which should now be resistance.
119.92 should now be minor support. And 120.12 should also offer minor support.
GLD:
Major level: 134.38
Minor level: 133.60
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13 <
Minor level: 127.35 ***
Minor level: 125.78
Major level: 125.00
The GLD closed at 127.85. The high for the day was 128.54, or 41 cents above 128.13 level. Watch for resistance at 128.13.
To move lower though, the GLD will need two closes under 127.35.
Minor support should be at 126.56.
XLE:
Minor level: 76.95
Major level: 76.56
Minor level: 76.17
Minor level: 75.39
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66 **
Major level: 71.88 <
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
The XLE closed at 73.56. This now implies that if the XLE can close above 72.66 today, the objective should become 75.
71.88 should now offer support. And minor support is at 70.31.
The major 75 level will be key. If the XLE cannot clear it, I would expect a pullback.
FXY:
Major level: 90.63
Minor level: 90.43
Minor level: 90.04
Major level: 89.84 <
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
The FXY closed at 89.34. 89.06 should offer is support. If the FXY breaks under 89.06, I would expect it to head lower.
If the FXY can hold 89.06, I would expect a retest of 90.63.
AAPL:
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 180.47
Minor level: 178.91 **
Major level: 178.13 <
Minor level: 177.35
Minor level: 175.78
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Apple closed at 177.84. Apple did take out the 178.13 target again.
At this point, 175 should be major support. And 176.56 should be minor support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: BDX, LLL, WYNN, CMI, MON, CVX, EOG, VRSK, VLO, HLF, MLNX, MPC, OXY, HP, DLB, NTAP, APC, CLR, MGA
Bearish Stocks: CMG, MLM, CB, EFX, SMG, TAP, UAL, D, CCL, TSRO, WAGE
Be sure to check earnings release dates.