7While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
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DUST Long $4.50
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RRC Long at $11.85
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RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
ET Long at $11.78
Premium Collected $0.35
DBX Long at $19.70
Premium Collected $0.75
ET Long at $7.50
Premium Collected $0.60
AGNC Long at $13.19
Premium Collected $1.20
AGNC Short April 3rd - $13.50 call @ $0.80
MFA Long at $4.20
MFA Short April $5 Call @ $0.40
FCX Long at $6.93
FCX Short April 3rd - $7 Call @ $0.35
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Since peaking at 75.80% on Monday, the bullish percent index dropped to 51% yesterday.
So, in two days, this sentiment indicator has dropped 24.80%.
As I have mentioned in the past, I have never seen swings like this.
On one month, this index dropped from a high of 83% to a low of 1.4%.
Then it ran from 1.4% to 75.8% in 3 weeks.
This shows you how extreme the market participants have been during this crisis.
And with yesterday's drop in this index, the S & P 500 sold off 114.09 points. The day closed out at 2,470.50.
Yesterday's drop put the S & P back to the lower band.
The lower band is 2,477.83 and the S & P closed about 7 points under it.
I would have preferred a close above the lower band. We should know today if this was the retest we had anticipated.
The DOW sold off again to under the lower band on its daily chart. The NASD Composite and the QQQ both remain above the lower band.
The fact that two markets closed under the lower band does suggest we will revisit that level at some point in the future.
And at this point, the DOW & the S & P 500 have crossed into downtrends on their daily charts.
The NASD market is still clinging to an uptrend.
Resistance from yesterday's price bar is around 2,484.
Watch to see if the S & P can hold the lower band, which is 2,477.83. This is the key level today.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 40.62
Minor level: 39.84 **
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.16
Major level: 34.38
Minor level: 33.60
Minor level: 32.03
The VIX closed at 57.06. The VIX closed 3.52 points higher. It is now literally sitting on the upper band on the daily chart.
The upper band is 53.51. And yesterday's low was 52.76.
As I have been saying, this market will not see a decent bounce until the VIX closes back inside the upper band.
Watch this level today.
S & P 500:
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.75
Minor level: 2,851.65
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,617.25
Minor level: 2,539.06
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,460.95 **
Minor level: 2,382.85
Major level: 2,304.75
Minor level: 2,226.65
The S & P closed at 2,470.50. Watch for support at the minor 2,460.95 level.
If the S & P cannot hold the minor 2,460.95 level, it could drop to 2,304.
2,470 is also a level to watch today.
QQQ:
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19 **
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
The QQQ closed at 182.31. The major 181.25 level should offer support. If it can't hold, a move to 170 is possible.
Technical support is around 178. And resistance is at 188.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 106.66.
Still trading below the lower band on the daily chart, which is now 118.64. This level should be resistance until the IWM can close above it. The IWM is getting close to the lower band.
The 104 area should provide technical support.
TLT:
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.48
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
Minor level: 146.10
The TLT closed at 167.04. The TLT closed above the upper band on the daily chart, which is 164.44.
Watch the upper band for support. And watch this level again today.
Resistance should be around 172. And support at 165.
GLD:
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35 **
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.67
Major level: 146.89
Minor level: 146.11
The GLD closed at 149.45. Watch to see if the GLD can clear the major 150 level today. If it can't, it should head lower.
The 152 area should now be resistance. And 138 should be support.
XLE:
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.47
Minor level: 53.90
Major level: 53.12
Minor level: 52.34
Minor level: 50.78
Major level: 50.00
Minor level: 49.22
Minor level: 47.65
Major level: 46.88
Minor level: 46.09 **
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
The XLE closed at 27.62. Still about $6 under the lower band. The lower band on the daily chart is now 33.93.
The 23 area should now be technical support.
AAPL:
Major level: 325.00
Minor level: 321.88
Minor level: 315.63
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88 **
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50 <
Minor level: 284.38
Minor level: 278.13
Major level: 275.00
Minor level: 271.88
Apple closed at 240.91. Apple is still in an uptrend on its daily chart. It is above the midband, which is 237.62. This should now be support until it is violated.
Watch to see if it can hold the midband. If it can't, I expect a strong move lower.
The 238 area should be technical support. Resistance is at 250.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: TLT, TDOC, CTXS, QDEL, ONGM
Bearish Stocks: KEYS, WCN, LGND, CHD, MMS, DDS, WWE, ASGN, DRQ, ARCH, ALTR
