While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
ET Long at $11.78
Premium Collected $0.35
DBX Long at $19.70
Premium Collected $0.75
ET Long at $7.50
Premium Collected $0.60
AGNC Long at $13.19
Premium Collected $1.55
AGNC Short April 24th - $13.00 call @ $0.35
MFA Long at $4.20
MFA Short April $5 Call @ $0.40
KEY Long at $10.72
KEY Short April 24th - $11 call @ $.32
................................................................................
Friday, I suggested you close the KRO position, which was opened on Thursday. The one day return worked out to 11.3%.
The short $5 call on MFA also expired, with the stock closing well under the strike price. As a quick update, MFA did suspect their dividend to meet margin calls.
According to a press release, they have reduced their leverage in order to pay down debt. The press release goes onto say that the book value of their holdings are now around $4.22 to $4.58 per share. This is right around what the price was when the alert was issued.
Finally, I did suggest a new position on KEY. The idea was to buy KEY and sell the $11 call that expires this coming Friday. If those calls are assigned, the return for a week will be around 5.4%.
Friday closed out the week with the S & P 500 closing 75.01 points higher. The market closed at 2,874.56.
This put the S & P about 82 points above the midpoint of the sell off.
So, in about a month, the S & P dropped 1,201.66 points or 35.4%.
And in less than a month, the market has rallied back 687 points.
And the daily average true range is now 109.58 points. Quite frankly, it would be larger because it does not take into consideration the gap opens. It only measures the intra day range.
Take Friday, for example. The S & P gapped 42.88 points higher at the open and proceeded to move higher the balance of the day.
The intra day range was 48.34 points an slightly great than the gap.
But, this has been what we have been seeing almost daily. The market makes a gap move in either direction at the open.
The day closed out at 90% of the range of the daily price bar.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 56 points lower. This would project to an open around 2,818 or about 12 points below Friday's low.
Watch Friday's low of 2,830.88 on a rally. After that level, the key level to watch should be 2,855.
For the week, the S & P closed 84.74 points higher. Support from last week's price bar should be around 2,828. The next level of support should be around 2,800.
The market should open between these two levels, so watch the 2,800 level on a sell off.
On the upside, we still need to watch for resistance at the midband, which is 2,985.82.
We also have to watch the 61.8% retracement level, which is 2,934.
This week we start to get earnings from companies that a propensity for large moves offer earnings.
This afternoon, we get earnings from IBM. And tomorrow afternoon, we hear from CMG and NFLX.
Wednesday we get earnings from LRCX and XLNX. And Thursday morning we hear from DPZ and FCX.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
Minor level: 42.97
Minor level: 41.40
Major level: 40.62 <
Minor level: 39.84
Minor level: 38.28 **
Major level: 37.50 <
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.16
Major level: 34.38
Minor level: 33.60
Minor level: 32.03
The VIX closed at 38.15. The VIX closed 1.96 points lower for the day.
The VIX did cross into a downtrend on its 60 minute chart. The midband is 52 and should be resistance.
Fridays low went to 13 cents above the major 37.50 level. Watch the minor 38.28 level today. The VIX would need two closes above 38.28 to test 40.62.
The 41 area should also provide technical resistance.
S & P 500:
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80 <
Minor level: 2,929.75
Minor level: 2,851.65 **
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,617.25
Minor level: 2,539.06
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,460.95
Minor level: 2,382.85
Major level: 2,304.75
Minor level: 2,226.65
The S & P closed at 2,874.56. Watch the minor 2,851 level today. A close today above this level and the S & P should test 2,968.80.
The 60 minute chart remains in an uptrend. And the midband is 2,686 and should be support.
And the major 2,812.50 level should also be support.
QQQ:
Major level: 218.75
Minor level: 217.19
Minor level: 214.06 **
Major level: 212.50 <
Minor level: 210.93
Minor level: 207.81
Major level: 206.25
Minor level: 204.69
Minor level: 201.56
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 198.44
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75
The QQQ closed at 215.29. The next minor level is 214.06. And the QQQ closed above it for thr first time on Friday.
A close today above 214.06 and the QQQ should head up to 218.75.
Support is now at 212.50.
Technical support should be around 207.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 122.06. The lower band should now act as support, which is 112.
The IWM did clear the 119.20 resistance level. Look for support around 120 at this point.
The IWM is actually very close to crossing into an uptrend on its 60 minute chart.
TLT:
Minor level: 164.85 **
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.48
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
The TLT closed at 167.81. Friday's high did clear the upper band on the daily chart, but the TLT closed under it. That level is 169.07.
Look for resistance at the upper band.
Support should be around 166. And 170 should be resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72 **
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38 <
Minor level: 158.60 **
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
The GLD closed at 158.67. A close today under 158.60 and the GLD should drop to 156.
The 160 area should now be resistance. And 152 should be support.
XLE:
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.47
Minor level: 53.90
Major level: 53.12
Minor level: 52.34
Minor level: 50.78
Major level: 50.00
Minor level: 49.22
Minor level: 47.65
Major level: 46.88
Minor level: 46.09 **
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
The XLE closed at 33.95. The XLE reversed the lower band on the daily chart and closed 10.62% higher for the day.
The lower band is 30.04 and should now be support.
The XLE crossed into an uptrend on the 60 minute chart. The 32 area should offer technical support.
AAPL:
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50 <
Minor level: 284.38 **
Minor level: 278.13
Major level: 275.00
Minor level: 271.88
Minor level: 265.63
Major level: 262.50
Apple closed at 282.680. Apple sold off and closed under 284.38 for the first time. A close today under this level and it should drop to 275.
Look for a move back up to the major 287 level, which was hit yesterday. Technical support is around 280.
Apple has crossed into an uptrend on the 60 minute chart. And the 264 area should be technical support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, SHOP, CHTR, NFLX, LMT, HUM, DPZ, ADBE, COST, BDX, NVDA, LRCX, VRTX, RNG, AAPL, BABA, ADSK, WST, COUP, KLAC
Bearish Stocks: GATX, LYV, BDC, LUV, DDS, PRA, CAJ, MLHR, SDS
