While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
ET Long at $11.78
Premium Collected $0.35
DBX Long at $19.70
Premium Collected $0.75
ET Long at $7.50
Premium Collected $0.60
AGNC Long at $13.19
Premium Collected $1.45
MFA Long at $4.20
MFA Short April $5 Call @ $0.40
KEY Long at $10.72
KEY Short April 24th - $11 call @ $0.32
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Yesterday, I suggested you close the short $13 call on AGNC. This brings the total premium collected on AGNC to $1.45 per share. This leaves KEY as the only position with a call that expires this Friday.
Yesterday saw the market give back some of the gains from Friday. For the day, the
S & P 500 closed 51.40 points lower.
The day closed out at 2,823.16.
This put the market back under the minor 2,851.65 level, which now suggests we still need two closes above this level to head higher.
The low for the day was about 8 points above the major 2,812.50 level. This should be a support level. And if it cannot hold, the minor 2,773.45 should also offer support.
Even though the market has pulled back and is set to open lower this morning, I am still biased to the upside.
This is because the 60 minute chart is still in an uptrend. In fact, it crossed into an uptrend 4 days ago.
And the midband is 2,679 and should be support.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 50 points lower. Assuming this trading holds up into the open, the market should open around 2,773, This is still about 100 points above the midband, which should be support.
The projected open would be below the weekly support level, which is around 2,800. This is the level the market will have to recapture to head higher.
The other key level is last week's low, which is 2,721.17. The market will most likely test this level.
A break under this level would suggest lower prices to follow. But, if a test could hold, then we could see the market gain some traction to the upside.
The key news yesterday was that the oil futures contracts traded below 0.
This means that you would actually get paid to take possession of oil. This is due to the severe over supply of oil and complete lack of demand.
This is just another industry thrown into complete disarray due to the global pandemic.
And I suspect what will follow will be a series of bankruptcies and consolidation in the oil market.
On the upside, we still need to watch for resistance at the midband on the daily chart, which is 2,985.82.
We also have to watch the 61.8% retracement level, which is 2,934.
IBM reported and is trading about $5.71 lower,
This afternoon, we get earnings from CMG and NFLX.
Wednesday, we get earnings from LRCX and XLNX. And Thursday, morning we hear from DPZ and FCX.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 46.88 **
Minor level: 46.10
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75 <
Minor level: 42.97
Minor level: 41.40
Major level: 40.62
Minor level: 39.84
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.16
Major level: 34.38
Minor level: 33.60
Minor level: 32.03
The VIX closed at 43.83. The VIX closed 5.68 points higher for the day.
The VIX did cross into a downtrend on its 60 minute chart. The midband is 52 and should still be resistance.
If the VIX can clear 46.88, I would expect a test of 50. And I would expect 50 to be resistance.
The 40 area should also provide technical resistance.
S & P 500:
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.75
Minor level: 2,851.65
Major level: 2,812.50 <
Minor level: 2,773.45 **
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,617.25
Minor level: 2,539.06
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,460.95
Minor level: 2,382.85
Major level: 2,304.75
Minor level: 2,226.65
The S & P closed at 2,823.16. This put the market just above the major 2,812.50 level. And today's open should be below this level, which would suggest it is now resistance.
Support should be at the minor 2,773.45 level.
The 60 minute chart remains in an uptrend. And the midband is 2,679 and should be support.
Watch for the VIX to reverse to the downside before going long.
QQQ:
Major level: 218.75
Minor level: 217.19
Minor level: 214.06 **
Major level: 212.50 <
Minor level: 210.93 **
Minor level: 207.81
Major level: 206.25
Minor level: 204.69
Minor level: 201.56
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 198.44
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75
The QQQ closed at 212.74. The QQQ closed just above the major 212.50 level.
It should open under this level, which would suggest it would be resistance.
Watch the minor 210.93 level for support.
Support is at the midband on the 60 minute chart, which is 195.
There is also support around 209.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 120.62. The lower band should now act as support, which is 111.
Look for support around 119 at this point.
The IWM did cross into an uptrend on its 60 minute chart.
TLT:
Minor level: 164.85 **
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.48
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
The TLT closed at 169.16. The TLT is right up against the upper band on its daily chart, which is 169.49.
If it takes out the upper band, look for it to head higher. If it can't, the TLT should pull back.
Support should be around 167. And 173 should be resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38 <
Minor level: 158.60 **
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
The GLD closed at 159.70. Watch the 160.16 level on the upside. Two closes above this level and the GLD should head up to 162.50.
The 161 area should now be resistance. And 156 should be support.
XLE:
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.47
Minor level: 53.90
Major level: 53.12
Minor level: 52.34
Minor level: 50.78
Major level: 50.00
Minor level: 49.22
Minor level: 47.65
Major level: 46.88
Minor level: 46.09 **
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
The XLE closed at 32.89. Watch the lower band.
The lower band is 29.74 and should now be support.
The XLE crossed into an uptrend on the 60 minute chart. The 32 area should offer technical support. A break under it and the XLE should head lower.
AAPL:
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 284.38
Minor level: 278.13
Major level: 275.00 <
Minor level: 271.88
Minor level: 265.63
Major level: 262.50
Apple closed at 276.93. Apple closed just above the major 275 level.
Apple has crossed into an uptrend on the 60 minute chart. And the 264 area should be technical support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, SHOP, CHTR, NFLX, LMT, HUM, DPZ, ADBE, COST, BDX, NVDA, LRCX, VRTX, RNG, AAPL, BABA, ADSK, WST, COUP, KLAC
Bearish Stocks: GATX, LYV, BDC, LUV, DDS, PRA, CAJ, MLHR, SDS
