While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
ET Long at $11.78
Premium Collected $0.35
DBX Long at $19.70
Premium Collected $0.75
Short May 1st - $20.50 Call @ $0.50
ET Long at $7.50
Premium Collected $0.60
AGNC Long at $13.19
Premium Collected $1.45
MFA Long at $4.20
Premium Collected $0.40
KEY Long at $10.72
Premium Collected $.32
CB Long June $105 Call @ $6.50
CB Short June $110 Call @ $4.40
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Yesterday, I suggest a debit spread on CB. I suggested going out to the June monthly options in order to give the trade some time to gain some traction.
The rally from Friday continued yesterday. The S & P 500 closed 41.74 points higher. The market closed out at 2,878.48.
This put the S & P about 27 points above the minor 2,851.65 level. The next objective should be to 2,968.80.
And with a close percentage of 74% yesterday, we do expect the high to be violated today.
And based on the pre market trading, that should be the case. Pre market, the S & P is trading about 35 points higher.
This projects to an open around 2,913 or about 16 points below the minor 2,929.75 level.
The projected open also puts the market within 20 points of the 61.8% retracement level of the down move. This is a level we have been monitoring during the upswing. This level is 2,934.
Watch this level today. If the market does clear it, I would expect a move up to the midband, which is 2,983.33.
The daily chart for the S & P is in a downtrend, so another leg down should not be unexpected. In fact, I do expect profit-taking at some point.
And the S & P traded well under the lower band on the daily chart. But, when it did trade back inside the lower band, it held support right at the lower band.
I am interpreting this to be the retest of the lower band. The implication would be that the next pullback would most likely NOT drop all the way back to the lower band.
I will show this chart on tomorrow's webinar.
We still need to be mindful of the overhead resistance.
The key area to monitor is the midband on the daily chart, which is 2,983. The other level to watch is the 61.8% retracement level of the down move, which is 2,934.
Support from the daily bar is in the 2,870 area.
This week, we get earnings from a number of major companies.
This afternoon after the close, we hear from GOOGL.
After the close on Wednesday, we get earnings from FB, MSFT, TSLA, and MCD.
And Thursday we hear from AMZN and AAPL.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 43.75
Minor level: 42.97
Minor level: 41.40
Major level: 40.62
Minor level: 39.84
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.16
Major level: 34.38
Minor level: 33.60 **
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 30.47
The VIX closed at 33.29. The VIX closed 2.64 points lower for the day.
A close today under 33.60 and the VIX should drop to 31.25.
The 38 should be a resistance level. And technical support is around 29.
S & P 500:
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80 <
Minor level: 2,929.75
Minor level: 2,851.65 **
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,617.25
Minor level: 2,539.06
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,460.95
Minor level: 2,382.85
Major level: 2,304.75
Minor level: 2,226.65
The S & P closed at 2,878.48. At this point, support should be at 2,851.65. And if the
S & P can close above 2,851.65 today, the target should be to 2,968.80.
Technical support should be around 2,875. And resistance is around 2,923.
QQQ:
Major level: 218.75
Minor level: 217.19
Minor level: 214.06 **
Major level: 212.50 <
Minor level: 210.93
Minor level: 207.81
Major level: 206.25
Minor level: 204.69
Minor level: 201.56
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 198.44
The QQQ closed at 215.56. With a close above 214.06 today, the QQQ should test 218.75.
At this point, 214.06 should be support.
212 should be support. And 220 should be resistance.
IWM:
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.19
Minor level: 139.06
Major level: 137.50
The IWM closed at 127.26. At this point, watch the minor 126.56 level. If the IWM can hold this level, look for a move to 131.25.
Short term, the IWM is overbought. 129 is the upper band on the 10 minute chart and the IWM is right against it.
Support should be around the 125.00 area.
TLT:
Minor level: 164.85 **
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.48
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
The TLT closed at 167.66. The TLT finally broke from the upper band on the daily chart. That level is now 171.58 and should be resistance.
The 60 minute chart is still bullish, so a rally after finding support should be expected.
Support should be at the midband, which is 165. And resistance is at 170.
GLD:
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72 **
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
The GLD closed at 161.56. Watch the minor 161.72 level today. A close today under this level and the GLD should drop to 159.38.
And is approaching the upper band, which is 166.
160 should be support and resistance is at 165.
XLE:
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.47
Minor level: 53.90
Major level: 53.12
Minor level: 52.34
Minor level: 50.78
Major level: 50.00
Minor level: 49.22
Minor level: 47.65
Major level: 46.88
Minor level: 46.09 **
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
The XLE closed at 35.37. I do expect a retest of the lower band at some point.
The lower band is 28.48 and should now be support.
34 should be support and resistance is at 37.
AAPL:
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 284.38
Minor level: 278.13 **
Major level: 275.00 <
Minor level: 271.88
Minor level: 265.63
Major level: 262.50
Apple closed at 283.17. The 275 level should be support. And with a close above 278.13 today, Apple should test 287.50.
A close today above 278.13 and Apple should test the 287.50 level.
Apple has crossed into an uptrend on the 60 minute chart. And the 278 area should be technical support.
Minor resistance is around 290.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: GOOGL, SHOP, REGN, DPZ, DXCM, NOW, BDX, WST, ADSK, KLAC, LLY, ZM, RH, SMG, DOCU, BMRN, SWKS, ETN, PZZA, CRUS, AMA, AZN
Bearish Stocks: CB, AJG, NWE, WWD, BLKB, SCI, LUV, SHOO, CAL