While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $0.81
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
Short April 12th - $17.50 call @ $0.25
FCX Long at $12.74
Total Premium Collected $0.73
Short April 12th - $13.50 call @ $0.25
CLW Long May - $20.00 call for $2.00
CLW Short May - $22.50 call for $1.00
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Yesterday, I suggested a debit spread on CLW. I did not suggest you buy a lot of time on the trade, but it will allow a few weeks to see if it moves in our direction.
The market paused yesterday, after the large move on Monday. By now, you probably have noticed that this is a fairly predictable pattern.
After a large move in the markets, they tend to pause.
But as I have said before, predicting a contraction or an expansion is pretty easy to do. Usually, expansions follow contractions and vice versa.
So, for the day, the S & P 500 closed .05 points higher. For the day, the S & P 500 closed at 2,867.19.
This still puts the objective for the S & P 500 up to the 2,890.60 level.
For today, the key levels to monitor are the close and the high which was 2,872.90.
The only potential problem for the markets at the moment is that the VIX is down to major long term support. This does suggest we may see a bounce in the VIX which would drive the markets lower.
But with the short term charts clearly bullish, I believe a pullback would be a great opportunity to go long after it finds support.
I am getting ahead of myself here, but it is worth noting.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 15 points higher. This would imply an open around 2,882, or about 10 points above yesterday's high.
Watch the high from yesterday if the market does pull back.
An open around 2,882 would put the market within 8 points of our upside objective.
Does it get hit today?
I don't know, but it is possible ... and I know it will get hit eventually.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed out the day at 13.34. Like the S & P 500, the VIX was down slightly yesterday.
12.50 should still be the objective for the VIX
As you know, this is a level where the VIX will typically find support. I will continue to monitor the VIX as we trade closer to it.
14.06 should offer resistance. And if the VIX breaks under 13.28, look for that move to 12.50. Same as yesterday.
SPX:
Major level: 2,890.60 <
Minor level: 2,871.08
Minor level: 2,832.03 **
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
Target is now up to the 2,890.60 level.
2,847.70 should offer support. Minor support is at 2,861.
With a projected open above 2,871.10, look for that level to offer support on a pullback.
The market is a bit overbought in the short term, but you still want to be buying against support.
Both the 30 and 60 minute charts continue to be bullish. So, bias is still to the upside. Technical support is at 2,815.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25 <
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
The QQQ closed at 182.73. The upside level now is 182.81, just 8 cents above yesterday's close.
Two closes above 182.81 and the QQQ should test 187.50.
181.25 should now be support. And minor support is at 182.03.
Like the S & P 500, both short term charts are bullish. Technical support is at 182. Continue to buy against support.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44
The IWM closed at 154.36. The IWM continues to inch closer to the target of 156.25.
But, we still have the midband overhead as resistance. That level is 155.97. Considering all the major markets have cleared their midbands, I do expect the IWM to follow suit.
153.13 should offer support now. And the 154 area should offer technical support.
TLT:
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56 <
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
The TLT closed at 124.60. The TLT broke under the upper band and closed under it. But, we have been saying that the TLT is overbought in the short term.
At this point, the key level is 124.61. If the TLT does close under it today, I would expect a drop to 123.44.
125 should now be resistance. And minor resistance is at 124.61.
GLD:
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.09
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
The GLD closed at 121.98. The GLD managed to close 10 cents above the major 121.88 level.
If 121.88 cannot hold, I would expect a drop to 120.31 and I would expect support there.
The 60 minute chart is still in a downtrend. And the 30 minute chart is close to crossing into a downtrend. If that can happen, I would expect more movement to the downside.
Technical resistance is around 123.
XLE:
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
The XLE closed at 66.53. Still expect a move up to 68.75.
But, the XLE is still trading just under the midband on its daily chart. That price level is 68.80. The XLE will have to, of course, clear this level.
So, there are two targets right around the midband.
I would expect strong support at the 65.63 level.
Short term charts remain bullish. Buy against support.
FXY:
Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50
Major level: 86.72 <
Major level: 85.94 <
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY broke and closed at 85.60. Watch to see if the FXY can clear 85.94. It should be resistance, so if it can get above it, I would expect a bounce.
If it can't clear 85.94, I would expect a drop to 85.16.
Technical resistance is around 86.
AAPL:
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 198.44
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19 **
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Apple closed at 194.02 and is starting to move away from the midband.
If you did buy at 189.06 the other day, you are up on the position.
At this point, 192.19 should be support. Looking for a move up to 197.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: CMG, AVGO, COST, MA, SHOP, AMT, MCD, CLX, HON, V, KMB, DRI, HSY, PYPL, YUM, WING, EPR, WPC, SBUX, CLH, THS, RIO
Bearish Stocks: NOC, LLL, HUM, BIDU, CTXS, ALL, SWKS, SINA, WDC, GOOS, FLIR, Z, YELP,
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
