7While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
ET Long at $11.78
Premium Collected $0.35
DBX Long at $19.70
Premium Collected $0.75
ET Long at $7.50
Premium Collected $0.60
AGNC Long at $13.19
Premium Collected $1.20
AGNC Short April 3rd - $13.50 call @ $0.80
MFA Long at $4.20
MFA Short April $5 Call @ $0.40
FCX Long at $6.93
FCX Short April 3rd - $7 Call @ $0.35
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Both short call positions expired on Friday. They consisted of the short $7 call on FCX and the $13.50 call on AGNC. I will sell more calls this week.
Friday, the S & P gave back 38.25 points after the 56.40 gain on Thursday. The market actually rallied back 28.69 points off the low.
The range for the day was 78.22 points and the S & P closed at 37% of the range of the daily bar.
The range was 60% of the daily average true range. The average true range is now 131.33 and has been dropping.
The support area from Friday's daily bar is in the 2,500 area.
The key for Friday, however, was that for the second day in a row, the S & P managed to close above the lower band on the daily chart.
The lower band now reads 2,463.90. And Friday's low went to 2,459.96 or about 4 points below it before the market managed to close about 25 points above it.
This level should now be support.
For the week, the S & P closed 52.82 points lower.
The weekly range actually exceeded the weekly average true range. Last week's range was 193.90, which was greater than the weekly average true range which reads 177.41.
However, this was a contraction after the 445.15 point range from the prior week.
The support area from last week's weekly price bar is in the 2,544 area.
The midband on the weekly chart is 2,516.21 and the S & P closed just under it. It needs to reclaim this level to head higher.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 88 points higher based on the relief program set to roll out by the US Government to help small businesses.
Earnings season begins next week, with some of the major banks reporting. Companies are already lowering projections based on the effects of the pandemic.
The good news on the virus is that the number of new cases in my state has been moving lower. Hopefully, this trend continues.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 40.62
Minor level: 39.84 **
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.16
Major level: 34.38
Minor level: 33.60
Minor level: 32.03
The VIX closed at 46.80. The VIX closed 4.11 points lower. This was the second consecutive day that the VIX closed under the upper band. The upper band is 54.42.
And both the S & P and the VIX closed lower. This was a divergence and usually suggests the market will change direction.
Support for the VIX should be around 43. And resistance is at 55.
S & P 500:
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.75
Minor level: 2,851.65
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,617.25
Minor level: 2,539.06
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,460.95 **
Minor level: 2,382.85
Major level: 2,304.75
Minor level: 2,226.65
The S & P closed at 2,488.65. I said to watch for support at the minor 2,460.95 level on Friday. And the low for the day went to 2,459.96 or 1 point under the minor level.
Support should be at the major 2,500 level.
And with a projected open above 2,539, it should be support on a pullback. And resistance should be around 2,825.
QQQ:
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25
The QQQ closed at 183.37. The minor 182.81 level should offer support. And on the upside, watch to see if the QQQ can clear 187.50. 187.50 should be the objective.
Technical support is around 183. And resistance is at 200.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 104.62.
Still trading below the lower band on the daily chart, which is now 116.68. This level should be resistance until the IWM can close above it. The IWM is getting close to the lower band.
The 103 area should provide technical support. And technical resistance is at 110.
TLT:
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.48
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
Minor level: 146.10
The TLT closed at 168.60. The TLT closed above the upper band on the daily chart, which is 165.47.
Support should still be at the upper band. And the TLT will not drop until it closed back inside the upper band.
Watch the upper band for support. And watch this level again today.
Resistance should be around 172. And support at 167.
GLD:
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35 **
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.67
Major level: 146.89
Minor level: 146.11
The GLD closed at 152.65. With a close above the minor 152.35 level today, the GLD should head up to 155.47. If it can't, it should head lower.
The 155 area should now be resistance. And 152 should be support.
XLE:
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.47
Minor level: 53.90
Major level: 53.12
Minor level: 52.34
Minor level: 50.78
Major level: 50.00
Minor level: 49.22
Minor level: 47.65
Major level: 46.88
Minor level: 46.09 **
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
The XLE closed at 29.83. Still about $3 under the lower band. The lower band on the daily chart is now 33.
The lower band is resistance until the XLE can close above it.
The 29 area should now be technical support. And resistance is at 31.
AAPL:
Major level: 325.00
Minor level: 321.88
Minor level: 315.63
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88 **
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50 <
Minor level: 284.38
Minor level: 278.13
Major level: 275.00
Minor level: 271.88
Apple closed at 241.41. Apple is still in an uptrend on its daily chart. It is just above the midband, which is 238.02. This should now be support until it is violated.
Watch to see if it can hold the midband. If it can't, I expect a strong move lower.
The 240 area should be technical support. Resistance is at 248.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: TLT, REGN, WMT, TTWO, GILD, PDD, MRNA, OMI
Bearish Stocks: AZO, MELI, ORLY, ANTM, FLT, CTAS, ALGN, ECL, LH, WHR, WCN, DGX, DLTR, CRI, WPC, OMC
