The market dropped at the open on Friday after the release of the Non Farm Payroll.??? It dropped 15.76 points before staging a rally.? A rally that moved up 31 points and saw the S & P 500 close 13.04 points to the upside.
Quite the volatile price action.
And for the week, the S & P 500 closed up almost 36.84 points. Essentially, after two narrow range trading days, the market exploded and most of the upside occurred on one day.
The question is will this rally continue or will it stall and see a pullback from the move that started on February 11th?
From a shorter term perspective, the market had it's first close above 2,070.33 on Friday.? A close today above that level and the objective should be to 2,093.80.? 2,078.10 is a longer term level and more significant level.? That is the level to watch to see if the S & P shows any weakness there.
Another key technical set up at the moment is that the VIX is almost down to the major 12.50 level.? Friday it closed at 13.10 or 60 cents above it.? This is the level to watch on the VIX and if it does reverse to the upside, a pullback in the markets would be expected.
Wednesday at 12:00 EST is our bi-weekly webinar.? If you do any questions or comments you would like me to address please feel free to email me at davismdt@gmail.com.
Finally, you should be closed out of the FDX position on Friday. If you got the fills from the original alert, your return was about 50% for a few days.?
Here are the key levels for the markets.
?
VIX:
Major level - 25.00
Minor level - 23.44
Minor level - 20.31
Major level - 18.75
Minor level - 17.19
Minor level - 14.06 *
Major level - 12.50
The VIX closed at 13.01 on Friday.? 14.06 is the level to the upside that remains important because if it does have two closes above 14.06, it should move up to 18.75.
Having said that, 12.50 still remains the objective.
14.85 should be a short term resistance level.
S & P 500 Cash Index:?
Major level - 2,125.00
Minor level - 2,109.38
Minor level - 2,078.12 *
Major level - 2,062.50 *
Minor level - 2,046.88
Minor level - 2,015.62
Major level - 2,000.00
Support should now be at the 2,062.50 level.? 2,046.88 should also be a support level.
For the shorter term, a close today above 2,070.33 and the objective would be to 2,093.80.
2,078.12 is the major confirming level.? Two closes above that level and the objective is to 2,125.
2,109.38 is the level where the S & P 500 failed last November.? I know it may seem odd to mention levels so far from the market, but with the way this market has bounced, a move up to that level would not be out of the ordinary.
Nasd 100 (QQQ):?
Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 111.71
Minor level - 110.16 *
Major level - 109.38
Minor level - 108.60
Minor level - 107.03
Major level - 106.25
Minor level - 105.46
Minor level - 103.91
Major level - 103.13
With a close Friday of 110.26, if the QQQ can close above 110.16 today, the objective should be to 112.50.
Support should now be at 109.38 and 108.60.
Like the S & P 500, shorter timeframes are still in firm uptrends.
TLT:?
Minor level - 132.03 *
Major level - 131.25 *
Minor level - 130.46 *
Minor level - 128.91
Major level - 128.13
Minor level - 127.34
Minor level - 125.78
Major level - 125.00
The TLT hit a high of 131.13 on Friday, just 12 cents under the objective.?
Support should still be at 130.46 and 128.91.
To move higher, the TLT will need two closes above 132.03. For a move lower, 130.46 becomes the key level and will have to be violated to the downside.?
GLD:
Major level - 125.00
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 121.10
Minor level - 119.53
Major level - 118.75 *
Minor level - 117.96
Minor level - 116.41 *
Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 114.85
The GLD closed at 116.93 on Friday.? The GLD did drop to the 115.63 level on Friday and had a low of 115.55.
At this point, it will need two closes above 116.41 to move higher.? To move lower, it needs to get under the 114.85 level.
XLE:
Major level - 65.63
Minor level - 64.85
Minor level - 63.28
Major level - 62.50
Minor level - 61.72 *
Minor level - 60.16
Major level - 59.38
The XLE closed Friday at 61.06.? This is under the 61.72 level, so if it does close under 61.72 today, the objective to the downside should be 59.38.
I would expect 59.38 to be strong support.
To move higher, the XLE will need two closes above 63.28.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
Apple held support Friday at 108.20, just above the 107.81 support level.
Objective should be to 112.50.? Lower levels should act as support.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: LMT, BCR, NOC, ULTA, MMM, AVGO, BDX, STZ, KMB, HD, THS, EW, PLCE, ATO, RS, GIS
Bearish Stocks: CMG, AGN, GD, CELG, ANAC, VRX, CRR, SLV
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
