While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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GOGO Long at $19.93
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APA Long Oct $47.50 Call at $3.45
WDC Long Aug 18th-$82.50 call at $1.44
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Friday saw the selling stop and the S & P 500 reverse to close slightly to the upside at 2,441.32. For the day it closed up 3.11.
This once again was right at the major 2,437.50 line. For the past two days, the low for the day was 2,437.75 and 2,437.85, respectively.
This level should offer support, but I do feel that if the S & P 500 dropped to the 2,375 level, the bull market would still be intact. However, should the S & P 500 drop to the 2,375 level, that would also mean that it dropped under the upper band on the monthly chart, which now reads 2,400.26.
2,400.26 is a price level to monitor and be aware of.
For the week, the S & P 500 closed to the downside 35.31 points on a bearish price bar. Based on the bearish price formation, I would expect resistance in the 2,459 to 2,464 area.
Pre open, the markets appear set to open to the upside, so you would want to see if this area offers resistance.
To move higher, the S & P will need two closes above 2,453.12 .
On the downside, the key price level is 2,421.90. Two closes under that level and the S & P 500 should test 2,375.
The down to up volume dropped substantially on Friday and was 1.19. As I mentioned on Friday, the reading for Thursday was 6.68. We should have a decent idea today if that reading was enough to stop the market from falling. The last four bottoms in the S & P 500 stalled with readings under 7.
I typically like to see a reading above 9 to 1, but recently the market has reversed with lower readings.
The major market wide news this week will be the release of the FOMC meetings on Wednesday.
Earnings continue this week and will be closely followed.
Continue to follow the resistance levels.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.84
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16 **
Major level: 9.38 <
The VIX topped out Friday at 17.28 before selling off and closing under 16.41.
At this point, 12.50 should offer support. 14.06 could also offer support.
16.41 is the minor level to watch at this point. Two closes above that level and the VIX should test 18.75.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,484.38
Minor level: 2,453.12 **
Major level: 2,437.50 <
Minor level: 2,421.88
Minor level: 2,390.62
Major level: 2,375.50
Minor level: 2,359.38
Minor level: 2,328.12
Major level: 2,312.50
The S & P 500 held support at the 2,437.50 level. Watch the 2,453 level today. If the market can clear this level, you want to see if it can hold. 2,445 should also offer support on a higher open.
2,406 is also a major support level.
QQQ:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.18 ***
Minor level: 139.06
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.94
Minor level: 132.81
The QQQ closed just under 142.18 on Friday. Short term support should be at 140.63.
A break under 139.06 would imply further movement to the downside.
142.19 could offer resistance.
IWM:
Minor level: 144.53
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28 **
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 136.72 ***
Minor level: 135.15
Major level: 134.37
The IWM closed just under 136.72. The IWM will have to close above that level today for the downmove to be negated.
A close today under 136.72 and the IWM should drop to 134.37.
132.81 would be the lowest price I would expect the IWM to drop.
TLT:
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56 <
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83
The TLT closed just under 126.56. If the TLT can close above 126.56, it could move up to the 128 to 131 area. It would need two closes above that level.
125 should now be support.
GLD:
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66 **
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 120.32
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
A close today above 122.66 and the GLD should test 125.
123.44 is a minor resistance level. A break above that level and you can expect the GLD to continue higher. 121.88 should be support.
XLE:
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85 <
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50 <<
Minor level: 61.72
62.50 should be the objective for the XLE.
63.67 is a minor support level. A break under 63.67 and the XLE should continue to the 62.50 level. 64.26 is minor resistance.
FXY:
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.67
Minor level: 87.89
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.11 <
Minor level: 86.33
Major level: 85.94 **
Minor level: 85.55
Minor level: 84.77
Major level: 84.38
The FXY closed at 88.16. A close today above 87.89 implies a move up to 89.06.
87.50 should now be strong support. 88.67 is minor resistance.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 162.50, 159.38, 156.25, 153.13, and 150.
156.25 should be support for Apple. If Apple can clear 157.81, and hold this level, I would expect a move up to 162.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: LMT, RTN, ALGN, COL, KITE, EL,DG, WEC, AZPN, GRUB, ERJ, MFA
Bearish Stocks: PANW, IBM, FLT, PANW, BWLD, CLB, VRSK, ESRX, WES, PAYX, AKAM, SGEN, LB, FLR
Be sure to check earnings release dates
