While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
ET Long at $11.78
Premium Collected $0.35
ET Long at $7.50
Premium Collected $0.60
MFA Long at $4.20
Premium Collected $0.95
DXC Long at $15.50
Premium Collected $1.20
CTXS Long Aug 21st - $140.00 Call @ $4.50
CTXS Short Aug 21st - $145.00 Call @ $2.20
HOG Long Sept 4th - $26.00 Call @ $1.70
HOG Short Sept 4th - $29.50 Call @ $0.45
PRA Long at $16.45
PRA Short Aug 21st - $17.50 call @ $0.40
................................................................................
Friday, the S & P 500 closed a modest .58 points lower. The day closed out at 3,372.85.
Even though the S & P 500 made a lower high and a lower low, it closed at 66% of the range of the daily bar.
This still suggests that the high should be violated before the low.
And Friday was another range contraction. The daily range was only 16.87 points.
This was less than one half the daily average true range, which is now 39.15 points.
The market had six consecutive contractions before a day with a range greater than the daily average true range.
We are now on a streak of three consecutive contractions.
Friday's lower high of 3,378.51 put the market 15.01 points below the all-time high of 3,393.52.
The support area from Friday should be in the 3,370 area.
And pre open, the S & P is trading about 5 points higher. This would put the market about one point under Friday's high. So, watch to see if the high is taken out. If it is, then I would expect a run to the all-time high.
The weekly price bar closed 21.57 points higher. And the weekly price bar closed at 75.5% of the range of the weekly price bar.
This also suggests that the weekly high, which is 3,387.89, should be violated before the low, which is 3,326.44.
The weekly bar also contracted. The range for the week was only 61.45 points. This was only 44.2% of the weekly average true range, which is 139.12 points.
This was now the 8th consecutive weekly contraction.
I do want to point out that as the summer winds down, we tend to get contractions.
Support from the weekly price bar is in the 3,357 to 3,364 area.
HD reports tomorrow, before the open, along with WMT. NVDA reports Wednesday after the close. And BABA reports Thursday, before the open.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 30.47
Minor level: 28.91
Major level: 28.13
Minor level: 27.35
Minor level: 25.78
Major level: 25.00 Midband
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66 **
Major level: 21.88 < HIT
Minor level: 21.10 **
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
The VIX closed at 22.05. The VIX closed .08 points lower for the day.
Watch to see if the VIX can break the 21.88 level. If it does, I would expect the VIX to continue lower.
And resistance should still be at the midband which is 25.12.
Technical resistance is around 22.50. The VIX and the S & P diverged on Friday, with both closing lower.
S & P 500:
Major level: 3,437.40 < TARGET
Minor level: 3,398.35
Minor level: 3,320.25 **
Major level: 3,281.20
Minor level: 3,242.15
Minor level: 3,164.00
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.75
Minor level: 2,851.65
The S & P closed at 3,372.85. The target for the S & P should still be up to 3,437.20.
Watch the minor 3,398.35 level. This level could offer some resistance.
The S & P is now within 15.01 points of the all-time high. And with objectives above the high, I do expect it to be taken out.
And the minor 3,320.25 level should be support. Minor resistance is at 3,359. The 3,359 level should be support.
Technical support is around 3,364.
QQQ:
Major level: 281.25
Minor level: 279.69
Minor level: 276.56
Major level: 275.00 Objective
Minor level: 273.44
Minor level: 270.31 **
Major level: 268.75
Minor level: 267.18
Minor level: 264.05
Major level: 262.50
Minor level: 260.93
Minor level: 257.80
Major level: 256.25
Minor level: 254.69
The QQQ closed at 272.16. The QQQ closed .32 lower on the day.
The objective should be up to 275. Support should be at 270.31.
The upper band is now 280.64.
Technical support is around 271.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 HIT
Minor level: 154.70
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.19
Minor level: 139.06
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.94
The IWM closed at 157.09. The next minor level is 157.81. Two closes above this level and the IWM should head up to 162.50.
156.25 should be support. And 154.70 as well.
And support should be at the midband, which is 146.07. The IWM is moving away from the midband. Next target should be the upper band, which is 188.
The IWM pulled back the upper band on the 60 minute chart, which is 162.47.
Look for a run to the upper band on the 60 minute chart.
TLT:
Major level: 171.88
Minor level: 171.10
Minor level: 169.53
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63 HIT
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28 **
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
The TLT closed at 163.18, closing .64 lower.
Watch the major 162.50 level. If this level cannot hold, I would expect more selling pressure.
And watch the 162.28 level. If the TLT can reverse and close above this level, it should get a bounce.
164.85 should be resistance.
The 166 to 167 area is technical resistance.
GLD:
Minor level: 194.54
Major level: 193.76
Minor level: 192.98
Minor level: 191.41
Major level: 190.63 <
Minor level: 189.85
Minor level: 188.28
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 186.72
Minor level: 185.16
Major level: 184.38
Minor level: 183.60
Minor level: 182.03 **
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 180.47
Minor level: 178.91
Major level: 175.00
The GLD closed at 182.54. The GLD closed $.79 lower on the day.
The GLD has now closed under the upper band, which is 186.54. This level should be resistance now.
But, I do expect a test of the upper band at some point. Watch the upper band today.
The 176 area should offer support. And technical resistance is around 182.
XLE:
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
Minor level: 42.97
Minor level: 41.41
Major level: 40.63
Minor level: 39.83
Minor level: 38.28 **
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.15
Major level: 34.37
Minor level: 33.59
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25
The XLE closed at 38.19. The XLE is holding the major 37.50 level. Watch this level today. If it can't hold, I would expect a pullback.
It will need two closes above 38.28 to move higher.
37.50 should be support. And technical support is around 37 as well.
AAPL:
Major level: 412.50
Minor level: 409.38
Minor level: 403.13
Major level: 400.00
Minor level: 396.88
Minor level: 390.63
Major level: 387.50
Minor level: 384.38
Minor level: 378.13
Major level: 375.00
Minor level: 371.88
Minor level: 365.63
Apple closed at 459.63. Apple closed $.41 lower.
This put Apple back above the upper band, which is 442.54. This should be support until a close under it.
By clearing the upper band, it should now be support.
I would like to see a larger pullback before entering. 456 is technical support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: NVDA, AAPL, ROP, HUM, DPZ, LRCX, AVGO, UNH, HD, ROK, KLAC, CMI, KLAC, FDX, DG, UPS, MMM, SWKS, TREX, TXN, MTCH, NKE, GRMN, EXPD, MNST,
Bearish Stocks: FLT, VMW, RETA, EVRG, GRA, GRA, MU, STX, NTAP, LYFT, PI, NTNX
