While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
Short Euro ???????????????????????? 133.40????? 133.40
Long Line (Sept 28 Calls)???? 1.30
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Stocks..
Spu's...the tgt for this short swing has not changed, it's 1717.
Nasd 100...??Opportunity lurks in the?individual names ?. Before thisrally is over a test of 3320 is possible.
EWW... Mexico put in an ORH daily pattern on Wednesday with follow through yesterday. 69.48 is the 200 day mvg avg and near term resistance. Maintaining and closing over 67.72 puts in an ORH week. This is a price positive formation.
Nikkei...14,230 will be today's pivot.
EWJ....11.40 is the must Hold level.
SMH...39.23-44 is an area you should exercise caution buying strength into today.?A close over 39.56 starts another leg up.
38.96 needs to hold today on an initial pull back to avoid lower.
Bonds...
We laid out the Bonds yesterday, there is no change. Follow the Bonds for they will lead the currencies and the precious metals early.
FX...
Euro...@ 131.95 is unchanged on the year. This, along with being the the wrong way on the crosses was the reason we recommended taking in half the shorts. Euro can trade 60-70 points either side of this level and it wouldn't effect the picture.
Euro is a good example of using one of our static macro levels for trade location.
The fundamental story is irrelevant when using these #'s. The only element that is important to us is the known risk.
Sometimes you don't know how much of a reaction you'll get off these levels but you know where you are wrong, which is Rule #1 in trading.
July 9th we wrote about not being short Euro into the 127.50 area, another one of those big macro levels. We didn't go long but we did know not to be short into the zone the first itme down. This is another good example of how wrong footed market participants get at these areas.
AUD/USD...88.50 ish is support. This is a big go or no go level. Expect a bounce off this area the first time down. Closing under this level would leave way for an 85 tgt.
EUR/AUD...this cross needs all new strength over 148.50 to rally of under 147.25 to break.
AUD/JPY.... 88.80 will be pivotal. This level will be the short term pivot for a figure in either direction.
Commodities...
Gold...1340 is still the upside breakout. 1284-88 is the first descent Fib support.
With a big drop in the 30 yr. futures the 1260's is possible today.
Oil...108.79 was the last high we broke from. There is now a potential double top in place. It's now about how and where Oil holds on a break to determine the next move.
By holding 106.90 on an initial break today we are looking for another 6 dollars higher on the way to 116.50, a level we've been looking for since 2008.
XLE...83.96 was the last high with resting buy stops above. If elected look for another dollar to start.
General Comments or Valuable Insight
Although the precious Metals and the Natgas Futures have been soft, the underlying names
have remained firm.
No matter what you're trading, whether it's going up or down, the Wednesday High or low is the level you should be keying off of for risk management.
Short Term View...
Trade instruments off their own technical s
For Glossary of terms and abbreviations click here.
