While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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The S & P 500 continued to follow through on Friday and closed 9.44 higher for the day. It closed at 2,850.13. And the range for the day was 21.90 points, which was almost the daily average true range, which now reads 22.26 points.
The low for the day ended up at 2,833.73, after opening about 5 points higher.
This put the low 4.13 points above the minor 2,829.60 level. But, with an open above that level, we should expect support at that level.
And ultimately, the S & P 500 moved back above the major 2,841.80 level.
With a close at 2,850.13, the S & P is only about 4 points from the next upside level, which is 2,854.00.
Support from Friday's daily price bar is in the 2,844 to 2,846 area.
And for the week, the market ended up closing at 89.6% of the weekly bar. As you know, this puts the odds of violating the high before the low, at almost 90%.
For the week, the S & P 500 closed up 16.85 points.
And the weekly range was 53.14. And with the weekly average true range now at 57.34 points, the range for the week was almost the average.
The support area from last week's weekly price bar is in the 2,829 to 2,842 area. With the S & P 500 closing out well above this area, a pullback could be deep without affecting the bull move.
As for the VIX, it closed Friday at 12.63, just 13 cents above the major 12.50 level.
The VIX got as high as 16.86 last week before falling. That was just 33 cents under the minor 17.19 level.
Resistance at higher levels was expected on the VIX, but it is possible we could get another bounce this week.
The short term 30 and 60 minute charts still remain bullish. The technical levels to watch are the midbands on both charts. The midband for the 30 minute chart is 2,833 and for the 60 minute chart it is 2,804.
Continue to monitor the longer term levels for the market.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 4 points higher. Watch the support levels.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06 **
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 10.94
Minor level: 7.81
Major level: 6.25
The VIX closed at 12.63. The drop brought the VIX back under 14.06. So, to move higher, the VIX will need two closes above 14.06.
Support should still be at 12.50. And minor resistance is at 14.06. 13.96 was Friday's high, which was just under the 14.06 resistance level.
A drop under 12.50 and the VIX should continue lower.
SPX:
Major level: 2,890.60 <
Minor level: 2,878.40
Minor level: 2,854.00 **
Major level: 2,841.80 <
Minor level: 2,829.60 **
Minor level: 2,805.20
Major level: 2,793.00
Minor level: 2,780.78
Minor level: 2,756.33
Major level: 2,744.10
Target is up to 2,890.60. We expected a move up to 2,849.10 and the S & P closed just above it, at 2,850.13.
2,836.90 should be minor support. A break above 2,861 and the S & P should continue higher.
Minor support should still be at 2,824.70. And of course, 2,829.60 should be a support level.
QQQ:
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25 <
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
The QQQ closed at 179.86. Target should still be to 181.25.
Minor support is at 179.30 and 179.69.
Like the S & P 500, both short term charts remain bullish.
IWM:
Major level: 171.88
Minor level: 171.10
Minor level: 169.53
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41 **
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50
The IWM closed at 168.35. The IWM is just under the 168.75 objective.
166.80 is minor support. And 167.19 should also offer minor support.
TLT:
Major level: 123.44 <
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70 **
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
The TLT closed at 120.98. The TLT should test 123.44.
120.51 should be minor support. 121.48 could offer resistance on the upside.
GLD:
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 114.85
Minor level: 113.28
Major level: 112.50 <
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38
It closed at 112.13. If the GLD stays under 111.72, I would expect it to drop further to 109.38.
The GLD has had two closes under 111.72, so I would expect a drop to 109.38.
However, the GLD is way oversold and under the lower band. The lower band is 113.20. A bounce could happen here.
Having said that, I would not expect a bounce to exceed 115.63.
The GLD is way oversold, but shorting here does not make sense.
XLE:
Major level: 78.13
Minor level: 77.35
Minor level: 75.78
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88 <<
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
The XLE closed at 72.61. The XLE continues to cling to the 71.88 level.
71.88 is a major level for the XLE. Two closes under 71.88 and the XLE should drop to 62.
If the XLE can hold 71.88, I would expect a move back up to 78.
FXY:
Major level: 86.72 <
Minor level: 86.53
Minor level: 86.14 **
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
Minor level: 84.58
Major level: 84.38
The FXY closed at 86.49. The FXY should test 86.72. Friday's high was 86.70, which was within 2 cents of the objective.
86.14 should offer minor support. And 85.94 should offer strong support.
AAPL:
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 221.88
Minor level: 215.63
Major level: 212.50 <
Minor level: 209.38
Minor level: 203.13
Major level: 200.00
Apple closed at 217.58. Apple took out the 212.50 objective. And if Apple closed today above 215.63, it should run to 225.
Apple is still above the upper band, which is 210.22.
212.50 should be major support. If Apple can hold this level, look for a move up to $250
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: CMG, GWW, HUM, SPY, UNH, BDX, FDX, AAPL, CTAS, AMGN, CME, AAP, RH, WDAY, V, DXCM, SODA, UHS, VRSK, LLY, AXP
Bearish Stocks: AVGO, NTES, STZ, BABA, ALXN, ALNY, FMC, XEC, DY, SINA, CTRP, WGO, OSTK, TUP
Be sure to check earnings release dates.