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The S & P 500 reversed and closed lower yesterday. The market ended up closing 14.93 points lower.
The day closed out at 3,374.85. This pullback should not be a shock as I have been writing about where the market could turn and at what price level. I discussed this on Wednesday's webinar as well.
As you know, the objective for the S & P 500 is to the major 3,437.40 level. But, I have been saying that the market needs to clear the minor 3,398.35 level in order to move to the next level.
And as it turned out, the S & P got as high as 3,399.54 before reversing and moving lower. The daily high cleared our short term resistance level by 1.19 points before the sell-off.
From the high of 3,399.54, the market dropped to a low of 3,369.66 for a range of 29.88 points.
The range was still less than the daily average true range, which is 36.04 points, but the day did close at 17% of the range of the daily bar.
This suggests the low of 3,369.66 should be violated before the high.
And pre open, the S & P is trading about 11 points lower. This projects to an open around 3,364 or about 6 points under yesterday's low.
So, the close percentage projection should be fulfilled right at the open.
The question is what should we be looking for today.
Generally, a gap down, which is what the open projects to be, against an uptrend becomes an opportunity to buy.
Watch the minor 22.66 level on the VIX. If the VIX cannot hold this level and reverses lower, we should see a reversal to the upside on the S & P.
The resistance level from yesterday's daily price bar is in the 3,383 to 3,385 area.
And below the market is the weekly support at around the 3,364 area.
NVDA reported and is trading slightly lower. BABA also reported and is trading slightly lower.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 30.47
Minor level: 28.91
Major level: 28.13
Minor level: 27.35
Minor level: 25.78
Major level: 25.00 Midband
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66 **
Major level: 21.88 < HIT
Minor level: 21.10 **
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
The VIX closed at 21.55. The VIX closed 1.03 points higher for the day.
The VIX managed to close under the 21.88 level, but it closed above the 21.10 level. Watch for resistance at 22.66 again today.
If the VIX clears 22.66, it should move higher.
And resistance should still be at the midband which is 25.13.
Technical resistance is around 23. To move lower, the VIX will need two closes under 21.10.
S & P 500:
Major level: 3,437.40 < TARGET
Minor level: 3,398.35
Minor level: 3,320.25 **
Major level: 3,281.20
Minor level: 3,242.15
Minor level: 3,164.00
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.75
Minor level: 2,851.65
The S & P closed at 3,374.85. Watch the minor 3,398.35 level again. This level could offer some resistance, and did yesterday.
The S & P will need to clear 3,398.35 to head higher. A close under this level and the S & P could drop to 3,281.20.
Technical resistance is around 3,380.
QQQ:
Major level: 281.25
Minor level: 279.69
Minor level: 276.56 **
Major level: 275.00 Objective-HIT!
Minor level: 273.44
Minor level: 270.31
Major level: 268.75
Minor level: 267.18
Minor level: 264.05
Major level: 262.50
Minor level: 260.93
Minor level: 257.80
Major level: 256.25
Minor level: 254.69
The QQQ closed at 276.10. The QQQ closed 1.87 lower on the day.
Watch for support at the 275 level. And at the minor 273.44 level.
The upper band is now 283.36 and the QQQ should make a run to test it.
Technical support is around 274.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 HIT
Minor level: 154.70
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.19
Minor level: 139.06
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.94
The IWM closed at 156.40. The next minor level is 157.81. The IWM still needs two closes above 157.81 to head higher.
156.25 should be support. And 154.70 as well.
Look for a run to the upper band on the 60 minute chart, which is 163.
Technical support is around 155.
TLT:
Major level: 171.88
Minor level: 171.10
Minor level: 169.53
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63 HIT
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28 **
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
The TLT closed at 163.73, closing 1.03 lower.
Watch the major 162.50 level. If this level cannot hold, I would expect more selling pressure. Also, the TLT will need to clear 164.84 to head higher.
And watch to see if the TLT can hold the 163.28 level today. If it can, a run to 165.63 is possible.
165.63 should be resistance.
The 166 to 167 area is technical resistance.
GLD:
Minor level: 194.54
Major level: 193.76
Minor level: 192.98
Minor level: 191.41
Major level: 190.63
Minor level: 189.85
Minor level: 188.28
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 186.72
Minor level: 185.16
Major level: 184.38
Minor level: 183.60 **
Minor level: 182.03
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 180.47
Minor level: 178.91
Major level: 175.00
The GLD closed at 182.24. The GLD closed $5.94 lower on the day.
The GLD closed back under the upper band which is 188.16. This level should now be resistance.
A close today under 183.60 and the GLD should drop to 181.25.
Technical support is around 178.
XLE:
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
Minor level: 42.97
Minor level: 41.41
Major level: 40.63
Minor level: 39.83
Minor level: 38.28 **
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.15
Major level: 34.37
Minor level: 33.59
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25
The XLE closed at 37.06. The XLE closed under the major 37.50 level. Watch the minor 36.72 level.
Two closes under 36.72 and the XLE should drop to 34.27.
37 is the midband on the 60 minute chart and the XLE is trading right on it. Watch this level today.
Technical support is around 37 as well.
AAPL:
Major level: 412.50
Minor level: 409.38
Minor level: 403.13
Major level: 400.00
Minor level: 396.88
Minor level: 390.63
Major level: 387.50
Minor level: 384.38
Minor level: 378.13
Major level: 375.00
Minor level: 371.88
Minor level: 365.63
Apple closed at 462.83. Apple closed .58 higher.
Apple is still above the upper band, which is 450.86. This should be support until a close under it.
By clearing the upper band, it should now be support.
I would like to see a larger pullback before entering. 458 is technical support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: NVDA, AAPL, ROP, HUM, DPZ, LRCX, AVGO, UNH, HD, ROK, KLAC, CMI, KLAC, FDX, DG, UPS, MMM, SWKS, TREX, TXN, MTCH, NKE, GRMN, EXPD, MNST,
Bearish Stocks: FLT, VMW, RETA, EVRG, GRA, GRA, MU, STX, NTAP, LYFT, PI, NTNX
