While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
XLNX Long September 20th - $110 call for $4.80
XLNX Short September 20th - $115 call for $2.70
FDX Long August 23rd - $155 put for $1.30
FDX Short August 23rd - $152.50 put for $0.70
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There is one position that expires today and that is the put debit spread on FDX. FDX is trading at the same level as when the trade was intitiated. But, the time value has eroded substantially. I will certainly look to close the long position if we get a push lower. Look for a separate email in the event that happens.
The S & P 500 closed slightly lower. It ended the day closing at 2,922.95, down 1.48 for the day.
After gapping higher at the open, the S & P sold off to a low of 2,904.51 and then proceeded to rally into the close.
The swing down was 34 points and the rally back was 18 points. So, the total intra day swing ended up being 52 points.
I do need to point out that the low came in at 11:00 EST. This is also a common intra day turning point.
And for the day, the S & P closed at 53% of the daily bar, which does not give a strong bias for today.
The key resistance levels for today from yesterday's daily bar is in the 2,922 to 2,927 area.
In scoping out to look at the weekly price bar, the most notable factor is that it is an inside day. In other words, at this point, it made a lower high and a higher low.
And the weekly range so far is only 39.38 points. When you consider that the intra day swings yesterday amounted to 52 points, there was more movement in one day than the whole week so far.
The weekly average true range is now 76 points, so this week's range is about half the average.
If the market were to move to the weekly average, it would have to move above the high or below the low about 36 points.
As you know, this is possible, but I think we may see the week close out with an inside bar.
By the way, for an inside week not to form, it would have to take out last week's high, which was 2,943.31.
And this week's midpoint so far is 2,919. So, yesterday's close was about 4 points above the midpoint.
Watch to see how the market reacts at this level.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 19 points lower.
CRM reported last night and it up about 6%. INTU is up about $11 and VMW is down about $10.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 Hit
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed out yesterday at 16.63. The low for the day was exactly 15.63 and the VIX found support at that price level.
Watch the 17.19 level today. It should still be resistance, but if it is taken out, the VIX should head higher.
The next level on the downside is 14.85. Two closes under this level and the VIX should test 12.50 again.
On the upside, the key level is 16.41. And 17.19 should be minor resistance.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80 <
Minor level: 2,929.73 **
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
Yesterday closed out at 2,922.95. With the S & P closing under the minor 2,929.73 level, it should offer resistance. This now suggests that if the S & P closes under 2,929.73 today, it should drop to 2,812.50.
A break above 2,924.43 and the S & P should continue higher.
2,905 should also offer minor support. So, if the S & P breaks under this level, look for it to head lower.
QQQ:
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06 **
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
The QQQ closed at 188.02. The QQQ cleared the major 187.50 level. The next minor level on the upside is 189.06.
Two closes above this level and the QQQ should run up to 193.75.
190.63 is minor resistance on the upside. This should be resistance, but if it was taken out, the QQQ should head higher.
Like the S & P, the QQQ has formed an inside bar for the week. And at this point, it is a perfect doji. With a lower open, look for resistance at 188.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 150.03, closing just above the major 150 level. At this point, support should now be at 148.44. Watch this level on the downside. A break under it and the IWM should head lower.
Watch to see is 150 holds. If it can, expect the IWM to continue higher. 151.56 is a minor resistance level.
And at this point, support should be at 148.44.
TLT:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31 **
Major level: 143.75 <
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
The TLT closed at 143.60. Watch the 143.75 level. If the TLT cannot get above this level, it should pull back.
On the downside, the TLT would need two closes under 142.97 to head lower.
145.31 is a minor resistance level.
GLD:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41 **
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.48
Minor level: 133.60
Minor level: 132.03
The GLD closed at 141.40. It closed one cent under the minor 141.41 level. It sould still need two closes above 141.41 to head higher.
It closed just under the upper band, which is 141.90. If it cannot recoup the upper band, then the GLD should pullback.
XLE:
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38 <
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03 ***
Major level: 56.25
The XLE closed at 57.90. The XLE stopped at 58.59 yesterday. And it offered resistance. This now suggests that a test of 56.25 is likely.
57.81 should offer support, so if the XLE breaks under it, look for it to head lower.
57.42 should be offer strong support.
AAPL:
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 221.88
Minor level: 215.63
Major level: 212.50 Hit
Minor level: 209.38
Minor level: 203.13
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 196.88
Minor level: 190.63
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Apple closed at 212.46. Apple continues to trade around the major 212.50 level.
206.25 should be support and would be great level to get long.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: MLM, MKC, CCI, VMC, LOPE, PG, FISV, SHAK, WELL, MPC, MMP
Bearish Stocks: BA, ILMN, ANTM, DPZ, BIIB, TSLA, MMM, AGN, FDX, JAZZ, FFIV
Be sure to check earnings release dates.