While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
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FEYE Long at $16.69
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The S & P 500 continues to climb to its next target, which is 2,890.60. Friday, the S & P 500 closed 17.71 points higher at 2,874.69.
The high for the day was slightly higher, coming in at 2,876.16. So this puts the market within 15 points of the objective.
Friday's range was only 13.81 points, but if you look at the close from Thursday to Friday's high, it comes in at 19.18 points.
This of course, was because of the bullish gap on Friday.
That range was about the daily average true range, which is now 19.86.
Based on Friday's daily price bar, support should be in the 2,868 to 2,870 area.
For the week, the S & P 500 ended up closing 24.56 points higher. The range for the week did contract.
The weekly range was only 25.54 points and the weekly average true range is 55.11 points. So, the weekly range was only about one half of the average.
This does indicate that we should see an expansion. Expansions always follow contractions.
Support from the weekly price bar is in the 2,863 to 2,865 area.
Both short term, 30 minute and 60 minute charts remain bullish, so expect momentum to continue to the upside.
Finally, we will resume our regular webinar this week. If you have any questions or a topic you would like me to address, please email me at davismdt@gmail.com and I will address it on the webinar.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 8 points higher.
Continue to monitor the longer term levels for the market.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06 **
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 10.94
Minor level: 7.81
Major level: 6.25
The VIX closed at 11.99. The VIX is now back to under the major 12.50 level.
We are still looking for a retest of 11.72, and Friday closed within 27 cents of it. The question is will the VIX drop under it this time?
If it does, it closes for two days under it, the VIX could retest 9.38.
13.28 should be resistance. And resistance should be at 12.50.
SPX:
Major level: 2,890.60 <
Minor level: 2,878.40
Minor level: 2,854.00 **
Major level: 2,841.80 <
Minor level: 2,829.60 **
Minor level: 2,805.20
Major level: 2,793.00
Minor level: 2,780.78
Minor level: 2,756.33
Major level: 2,744.10
Target is still up to 2,890.60. At this point, support should be at the 2,861.30 level. And with a close above the minor 2,873.50 level, it should now be support.
Short term intra day 30 and 60 minute charts are still bullish. Technical support is at 2,848.
QQQ:
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25 <
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
The QQQ closed at 182.48. To continue higher, the QQQ will need two closes above 182.81.
At this point, support should be at 179.69. If the QQQ can clear 181.25, I would expect a move up to 184.38.
181.25 should also be a minor support level.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level:174.22
Minor level: 172.66
Major level: 171.88
Minor level: 171.10
Minor level: 169.53 **
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
The IWM closed at 171.59. The IWM should move up to 171.88. And Friday, the IWM came within 10 cents of the target.
Minor support should be at the 170.31. 173.44 could offer resistance on the upside.
TLT:
Major level: 123.44 <
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70 **
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
The TLT closed at 122.29. Objective is still to the 123.44 objective.
121.88 should be minor support and 122.27 minor resistance. If the TLT breaks though 122.27, it should head higher. And Friday it did.
GLD:
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 114.85
Minor level: 113.28 **
Major level: 112.50 <
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38
It closed at 114.16. The GLD is bouncing off its oversold condition.
On the upside, the key level will be 115.63. If the GLD can break through it, it could continue higher. 112.50 should now be support.
XLE:
Major level: 78.13
Minor level: 77.35
Minor level: 75.78 **
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
The XLE closed at 74.54. If the XLE has two closes above 75.78, it should move up to 78.13.
Minor support should now be at 73.83 and at 73.44.
FXY:
Major level: 86.72 <
Minor level: 86.53
Minor level: 86.14 **
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY closed at 86.07. To move higher, the FXY will need two closes above 86.14.
86.33 should offer support. A break under this level and the FXY continues should drop.
Short term charts are bullish, so momentum is to the upside.
AAPL:
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 221.88
Minor level: 215.63
Major level: 212.50 <
Minor level: 209.38
Minor level: 203.13
Major level: 200.00
Apple closed at 216.16. If Apple closes above 215.63 today, it should move up to 225.
214.84 is minor support. 212.50 should offer support. And the minor 215.63 level should also be support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, CMG, ILMN, ANET, DPZ, SPY, NVDA, UNH, BDX, PANW, ZBRA, WDAY, V, SODA, RHT, GRUB, SPLK, DECK, DG, NTAP,
Bearish Stocks: AVGO, BABA, ITW, SMG, HIG, AMAT, CPB, BECN, JD, WRK, AN
Be sure to check earnings release dates.