While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
ET Long at $11.78
Premium Collected $0.35
ET Long at $7.50
Premium Collected $0.60
MFA Long at $4.20
Premium Collected $0.95
PRA Long at $16.45
PRA Short Aug 21st - $17.50 call @ $0.40
CERN Long Sept 19th - $72.50 Call @ $1.75
CERN Short Sept 19th - $77.50 Call @ $0.40
HPQ Long at $18.76
HPQ Short Aug 28th - $19.00 call @ $0.63
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It seems like only yesterday that I asked when we would see an expansion in the market. In fact, I wrote this ... "We know that this will lead to an expansion. The only question is when."
No sooner did I propose that question and the market extends to the upside.
The day closed out 35.11 points higher and the range for the day was 36.92 points.
This put the range just above the daily average true range, which is 34.02 points. So, after three consecutive contractions, the market moved back to the average range.
And the day closed at 94% of the range of the daily bar. This once again puts the odds of the high being violated before the low.
The day closed out at 3,478.74. Not only did the S & P close for the second day above the 3,437.40 objective we were looking for, but it managed to close above the next minor level, which is 3,476.45.
This now sets up two price expectations.
The first is that the major 3,427.40 level should be support. And if the S & P can close above the 3,476,45 level today, it should head up to 3,593.60.
Assuming this happens, the scenario of a move the upper band on the daily chart would become more likely.
The support area from yesterday's daily bar is in the 3,462 to 3,464 area.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 6 points lower.
SPLK reported and is trading about $1 higher. And NTAP is trading about $4 higher after reporting.
And Thursday, after the close, we get earnings from ULTA, VMW, and WDAY.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 30.47
Minor level: 28.91
Major level: 28.13
Minor level: 27.35
Minor level: 25.78
Major level: 25.00 Midband
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66 **
Major level: 21.88 < HIT
Minor level: 21.10 **
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
The VIX closed at 23.27. The VIX closed 1.24 points higher for the day. This created a divergence, which puts us on alter for a pullback.
Both the S & P and the VIX closed higher on the day.
At this point, watch the 22.66 level. The VIX will have to drop under this level today for the market to head lower.
A close above this level and the target should be to 25. Technical resistance is still at 25.
S & P 500:
Major level: 3,593.60
Minor level: 3,554.55
Minor level: 3,476.45 **
Major level: 3,437.40 < TARGET HIT!!!
Minor level: 3,398.35 **
Minor level: 3,320.25
Major level: 3,281.20
Minor level: 3,242.15
Minor level: 3,164.00
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
The S & P closed at 3,478.73. The S & P closed above the 3,476.45 level. A close today above this level and the objective should be up to 3,593.60.
This suggests that the 3,437.40 level should be support. And support is at 3,457.
Technical support is around 3,441.
QQQ:
Major level: 287.50 HIT!!!
Minor level: 285.94
Minor level: 282.81
Major level: 281.25
Minor level: 279.69
Minor level: 276.56
Major level: 275.00
Minor level: 273.44
Minor level: 270.31
Major level: 268.75
Minor level: 267.18
The QQQ closed at 291.96. The QQQ closed 6.10 higher on the day.
The QQQ took out the 287.50 objective. And closed above the upper band, which is 288.72.
The upper band should now be support.
Technical support is around 286.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25 HIT
Minor level: 154.70 **
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.19
Minor level: 139.06
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.94
The IWM closed at 155.42. Look for a move above the 156.25 level.
Look for a run to the upper band on the 60 minute chart, which is 165.
Technical support is around 155. Watch to see if the IWM can close above 157.81.
TLT:
Major level: 171.88
Minor level: 171.10
Minor level: 169.53
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85 **
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
The TLT closed at 164.03, closing .63 lower. At this point, I am biased for a drop to 162.50.
Technical resistance is now around 165. Short term trends remain bearish.
GLD:
Major level: 190.63
Minor level: 189.85
Minor level: 188.28
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 186.72
Minor level: 185.16
Major level: 184.38
Minor level: 183.60
Minor level: 182.03 **
Major level: 181.25 HIT
Minor level: 180.47
Minor level: 178.91
Major level: 175.00
The GLD closed at 183.36 The GLD closed 2.14 higher in the day. A close today above 182.03 and the GLD should test 184.38.
The upper band is 190.25 and should now be resistance.
The 180 area should be a technical support level. Watch to see if the GLD can hold this level.
XLE:
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
Minor level: 42.97
Minor level: 41.41
Major level: 40.63
Minor level: 39.83
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72 **
Minor level: 35.15
Major level: 34.37
Minor level: 33.59
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25
The XLE closed at 35.73. With a close under 36.72, the objective should be down to 34.37.
Watch to see if the XLE can hold the 34.37 level.
Technical resistance is at 36. And technical support should be around 35 as well.
AAPL:
Major level: 412.50
Minor level: 409.38
Minor level: 403.13
Major level: 400.00
Minor level: 396.88
Minor level: 390.63
Major level: 387.50
Minor level: 384.38
Minor level: 378.13
Major level: 375.00
Minor level: 371.88
Minor level: 365.63
Apple closed at 506.09. Apple closed 6.79 higher.
Apple is still well above the upper band, which is 469.29. This should be support until a close under it.
By clearing the upper band, it should now be support.
The 4 for 1 split is effective on August 31st. The general pattern after a split is for the stock to drift lower and then find support. Wait until after the split to enter long.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, TSLA, GOOGL, NVDA, AAPL. NTES, DPZ, LULU, COST, W, RNG, FB, PANW, BABA, CVNA, DE, FDN, FDX, WING, JNJ, ETSY, CHKP
Bearish Stocks: BDX, FLT, MLM, CB, CDW, GWRE, POST, BAX, RL, OMC
