While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions?
No current positions or working orders
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Stocks..
GS...149.28-148.71 are where the macro sell stops lie with 147 being the 200 day which should bounce on an overrun the first time down.
GOOG...847-844 is weekly and monthly support and the macro downside closing pivot. Look for a bounce the first time down, however maintaining below expect it to move in 20 dollar increments.
F...sustained price action below 15.82 " the weekly ORL#"
will lead to a dollar sell off around 14.90.
Nikkei...13,100 is the closing downside pivot. If violated, look for 12,500-600 to be tested again.
Dax...8110 is the lower end of daily support. There does not appear to be a lot of downside left.
Vix...1720-50 can reject the first time up (it's a big macro pivot), closing over this level and this can spike back towards 20.
Bonds...
30 yr....138-139 is the area where many Bond fund managers bought in June. They're still wearing this trade. This is where we'll be looking to put on a long term short again.
Near term, the levels remain the same.
FX...
USD/JPY...Closing above 103.20 in the Futures "below 96.85 cash" will lead to 95 USD/JPY as an initial tgt. 96.85 USD/JPY will act as a big macro pivot.
Commodities...
Oil...everybody is looking at the same map. 114.83 is the 2011 high.?Short term price action under 109.30-50 will run the longs out.?107.25-50 would then be the first support.
Inventory #'s are out at 9:30 CDT.
Gold & Silver have both hit my near term objectives last night.
Gold back below 1404 will have everybody hitting the sell button.
Price action in the Silver below 24.40-50 will cause profit taking.
General Comments or Valuable Insight
Long term investors should wait out the drama until the smell of cordite dissipates. Only then will you have the world returning to a fundamentally driven market.
Short term guys should only be trading at the # sets with ultra tight intra day stops.
Yra Harris http://yragharris.com had an interesting observation in last night's blog that the stock Indices bottomed with the start of the Iraq conflict. This bears watching.
Let the day unfold. We're looking for market extremes today.
Short Term View...
Trade instruments off their own technical s
Time Frame Trading.
If the missiles start flying maybe we can get a spike low to trade.
In the meantime trade tight or don't trade.
The Asian sessions have been leading new price action and reversals for the past couple of months. The U.S. session has been a Time Frame Trade off regional order flows.
For Glossary of terms and abbreviations click here.