While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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I mentioned yesterday what would invalidate the price expectation that the low from the long range candle should not be violated before the high.
And one of the things I mentioned was the amount of time that the market trades within the body of that bar. As of yesterday, there were three days that traded within the body.
Today would be day four. And pre market, the S & P is traded substantially higher. As I write this, the market is trading almost 27 points higher.
Assuming this trading holds up until the open, the market should open around 2,914. This would put the S & P within 13 points of the high of Friday's bar, which is 2,927.01.
Assuming the market continues to move higher, the high of 2,927 is definitely a price area to watch.
The midpoint of Friday's bar, which was 2,880 was resistance until it was violated.
And yesterday, the S & P closed at 2,887.94, or about 8 points above the midpoint.
This level should now be support.
And for the day, the S & P closed at 94% of the daily bar, which implies that the high will be violated ... and it certainly will at the open.
The final comment about yesterday was that the down to up volume was only 30. Usually, when you get a reading that low, the market tends to follow through.
Monday is a national holiday here in the United States and all markets will be closed.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53 **
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed at 19.35 yesterday. The VIX did clear 21.10, but sold off under it.
With a close under 21.10, the VIX should drop to 18.75.
Watch the 18.75 level because if it is violated, the VIX should continue lower.
Minor support is at 17.19 and minor resistance is at 20.31.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80 <
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58 **
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
The S & P 500 closed at 2,887.94 yesterday. The objective at this point should be up to the 2,968 level.
Watch the 2,905 level. The S & P should open above it and I would expect support at that level on a pullback.
QQQ:
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94 **
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
The QQQ closed at 185.09. Watch for minor support at 182.81. And the QQQ should test 187.50.
Minor support should be at 184.38.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31 **
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 146.54. If the IWM can hold the 145.31 level, it should test 150.
145.31 should be minor support. 148.44 should be support if the IWM can clear it.
TLT:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31 **
Major level: 143.75 <
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
The TLT closed at 147.80. The TLT continues to move up to the 150 level.
The TLT will need to hold 147.66 to move up to 150.
GLD:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31 **
Major level: 143.75 <
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
The GLD closed at 145.16. The GLD will still need two closes above 145.31 to head up to 150.
Like the TLT, the GLD continues to trade above the upper band.
143.75 should still be support.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25 <
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 56.65. The XLE closed just above the major 56.25, which is what we were looking for.
If the XLE can hold 56.25, it should begin to move up off this oversold condition.
55.86 is minor support.
AAPL:
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 221.88
Minor level: 215.63
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 209.38 **
Minor level: 203.13
Major level: 200.00 <
Minor level: 196.88
Minor level: 190.63
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Apple closed at 205.53. By holding the 203.13 level, Apple should move up to 212.
204.69 is minor support. And if Apple can clear 206, it should head higher.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: SHOP, LMT, AMT, NEE, HSY, CCI, KLAC, MDT, WING, SHAK, EA, WEC, MRK, INXN
Bearish Stocks: NFLX, REGN, DOZ, TSLA, CLX, MMM, JAZZ, JNJ, FFIV, PSX, PKI, ALC, SQ
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
