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As we move towards the close out of August, the bullish move continues. But this should no shock to you.
After all, we still have objectives higher for this market. And it is complying with us.
For the day, the S & P 500 closed 16.52 points higher, at 2,914.04. This put the market closing above 2,902.83. This now means that a close today above 2,902.83 and the objective becomes 2,939.50.
There is no question that the market is in overbought territory, but a move up to 2,939.50 would be a three level move for the S & P 500. And the typical move usually is at least three levels.
As I mentioned on yesterday's webinar, I felt that the level after 2,939.50, which is 2,988.30 is a very significant level. Significant enough that I don't feel the market will clear it on the first attempt.
If it can, then that will tell us that the market will climb higher.
At this point, support should be at 2,902,83.
Support from yesterday's daily price bar is in the 2,907 area. A break under that level and you should watch 2,903.
Both short term, 30 minute and 60 minute charts remain bullish, but price is up against the upper bands on both charts. The upper band on the 60 minute chart is now 2,915.09 and on the 30 minute is 2,920.04.
This warns us that for the short term, price is hitting an extreme.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 3 points lower.
Continue to monitor the longer term levels for the market.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06 **
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 10.94
Minor level: 7.81
Major level: 6.25
The VIX closed at 12.26. The VIX closed back under the major 12.50 level.
I said yesterday that I felt resistance was still at the 12.50 level and yesterday's high was 12.55 before it dropped.
For a reversal in the market, I believe we will need to see a close above 12.50 in the VIX.
We are still looking for a retest of 11.72. And the key will be if the VIX can close for two days under it.
Watch to see it the VIX can clear 12.50. If it can, we may see a minor reversal.
Minor support is also at 12.11. Two closes under 12.11 and the VIX should drop to 10.94.
SPX:
Major level: 2,939.50
Minor level: 2,927.28
Minor level: 2,902.83 **
Major level: 2,890.60 < Hit
Minor level: 2,878.40
Minor level: 2,854.00
Major level: 2,841.80
Minor level: 2,829.60
Minor level: 2,805.20
Major level: 2,793.00
If the S & P 500 can close above the 2,902.83 level today, the objective becomes 2,939.50.
Short term intra day 30 and 60 minute charts are still bullish. Technical support is at 2,860. But, with the price up against the upper bands, a pullback could happen. It certainly warns us of that.
Short term support level is at 2,890.60. And the 2,901.83 level should offer support.
QQQ:
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25 <
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
The QQQ closed at 186.75. Objective should be up to 187.50. And the QQQ is now within one point of it.
184.38 should be a short term support level. And 185.94 should also offer support. 190.63 could offer resistance.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level:174.22
Minor level: 172.66
Major level: 171.88 **
Minor level: 171.10
Minor level: 169.53
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
The IWM closed at 172.50. The IWM closed again above 171.88. The target should now be up to 175.
Minor support should be at the 171.88. 173.44 could offer resistance on the upside.
A break under 171.88 and I would expect 171.09 to hold as support.
TLT:
Major level: 123.44 <
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70 **
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
The TLT closed at 121.02. Objective is still to the 123.44 objective. And the TLT will have to reclaim 121.49 today to head higher.
The TLT is sitting just above the midband on the daily chart. That level is 120.75. A break under this level would be bearish.
120.70 should offer support. And 122.66 minor resistance.
On yesterday's webinar, I did an analysis of the TLT at the request of one of your fellow members. It is really quite instructive and shows how I view a market from long term to short term. It is worth listening to the replay.
GLD:
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 114.85 **
Minor level: 113.28
Major level: 112.50 <
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38
It closed at 114.20. Biased for a test of 112.50, but the GLD is oversold.
114.84 is minor resistance. And 112.50 should offer support. And 113.28 is minor support.
XLE:
Major level: 78.13
Minor level: 77.35
Minor level: 75.78 **
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
The XLE closed at 75.23. The XLE will need two closes above 75.78 to move up to 78.13.
Minor support should now be at 74.61. And minor resistance is at 75.78.
The 30 minute chart has crossed into an uptrend. Short term momentum is shifting to the upside.
FXY:
Major level: 86.72 <
Minor level: 86.53
Minor level: 86.14 **
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY closed at 85.63. The FXY is back under the major 86.72 level. Two closes under 86.53 and it should test 85.94.
85.25 should offer support.
The FXY broke under the technical resistance level and the 30 minute chart has crossed into a downtrend. Short term momentum has shifted lower.
AAPL:
Major level: 225.00 **
Minor level: 221.88
Minor level: 215.63
Major level: 212.50 <
Minor level: 209.38
Minor level: 203.13
Major level: 200.00
Apple closed at 222.98. Target should now be up to 225. Apple continues its quest to the 225 target.
220.31 is minor support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, CMG, ILMN, ANET, DPZ, SPY, NVDA, UNH, BDX, PANW, ZBRA, WDAY, V, SODA, RHT, GRUB, SPLK, DECK, DG, NTAP,
Bearish Stocks: AVGO, BABA, ITW, SMG, HIG, AMAT, CPB, BECN, JD, WRK, AN
Be sure to check earnings release dates.