While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
CHKP Long August 16th - $110 call for $2.70
CHKP Short August 16th - $115 call for $0.60
DLTR Long August 16th - $102 call for $2.35
DLTR Short August 16th - $107 call for $0.40
.........................................................................................
Friday ended the week closing 21.51 points lower. It closed out the week at 2,932.05.
The range for the day was 31.39 points or less than one half the range from the bearish candle on Thursday. But, the range was still greater than the 27.98 point average true range.
Resistance from Friday's daily bar should be in the 2,930 to 2,938 area.
For the week, the S & P 500 closed 93.81 points lower. It was down 3.1% for the week. And the weekly range was 111.50 points.
Like the past two days, the weekly range exceeded the weekly average true range of 71.84 points.
And for the week, the S & P closed at 16% of the weekly bar. This certainly suggests that the low of the week will be violated before the high.
The weekly low is 2,914.11 and will certainly be taken out at the open, with the S & P 500 trading about 40 points lower before the open.
This projects to an open around 2,890.
Having said that, the projected open should be about 50 points under the lower band on the 30 minute chart. But, the open will be above the lower band on the 60 minute chart.
The lower band on the 30 minute chart is 2,939.58 and the lower band on the 60 minute chart is 2,862.87.
So, the lower band on the 60 minute chart is within 6 points of the major 2,968.80 level.
I would expect support at this level. This was a difficult level to break through on the upside. So, now I would expect a test of it from above.
For the level to hold as support, the VIX will have to reverse to the downside.
With this type of selling before the open, expect a fast market today.
Earnings do continue this week. The biggest name will be the earnings from NVDA on Thursday.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72
The VIX closed at 17.61 on Friday. It closed lower by 9 cents. So, for the day, both the VIX and the S & P closed lower.
The VIX did not clear 20.31. I went as high as 20.11 on Friday. With today's pre market trading, I would expect 20.31 to be taken out.
The other key for the short term is the 18.75 level. If the VIX clears 18.75, I would expect it to act as support.
21.88 could offer resistance.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80 <<
Minor level: 2,929.73 **
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
The S & P closed Friday about 3 points above the minor 2,929.73 level. At this point, if the S & P has two closes under 2,929.73, it should move to 2,812.
The 2,812 level is within 5 points of the midband on the daily chart. The midband is 2,807 and it certainly is looking like the market will test that level.
2,900 is a minor resistance level. So, if the market breaks under it, look for resistance at that level.
QQQ:
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
The QQQ closed at 187.35. The QQQ did hit 187.50, as we expected.
185.94 is the next level on the downside. Two closes under 185.94 and the QQQ should drop to 181.25.
Resistance should be at 189.06.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69 **
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 152.58. A close under 154.69 and the IWM should drop to 150.
153.13 is minor resistance. And the IWM is under the midband, which is now 153.68. This should be resistance.
TLT:
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
Minor level: 133.60
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
The TLT closed at 136.51. The TLT is now within 1 point of the 137.50 level.
135.94 should offer minor support. Getting very close to the upper band on the daily chart. The upper band is 137.29.
GLD:
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16 **
Major level: 134.48 <
Minor level: 133.60 **
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
The GLD closed at 135.89. 137.50 is the objective. And the upper band is 136.98.
134.38 should be support.
XLE:
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50 <
Minor level: 61.72 **
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38 <
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
The XLE closed at 60.40. We expected a move lower based on the XLE breaking under 62.50.
And the XLE came within 40 cents of the 59.38 level.
60.94 is short term support. With a close today under 60.94, the XLE could drop to the 56 area.
AAPL:
Major level: 212.50 <
Minor level: 209.38
Minor level: 203.13 **
Major level: 200.00 <
Minor level: 196.88
Minor level: 190.63
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13
Major level: 175.00
Apple closed at 204.02 on Friday after reporting. A drop to 200 should be expected.
206.25 should now offer minor resistance.
Friday, Apple was sitting right at a major technical support level, which is 202.95. If Apple does break under this level, which is highly probable right at the open, it should drop down to around 189.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: SHOP, MLM, MCO, LHX, WIX, RNG, GLD, VMC
Bearish Stocks: BA, DPZ, DXCM, URI, FIVE, FANG, EOG, LGND, JACK, CXO, GRUB, COP
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
