While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
GOGO? Long at $19.93
Premium collected - $.70
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As I write this, we are about an hour away from the release of the jobs report.
This should be a closely watched report today as it may help to give us a clue if the Fed will raise rates in September.
Expect extra volatility today.
A quick comment on GOGO.? As I mentioned when I issued the alert before earnings, the projected move indicated a $20 target to the upside and $16.65 to the downside.
As it happened, the low for yesterday was $16.54 or 11 cents under that projection.
Based on the fact that the move hit the estimate, I would suggest that if you bought a straddle before earnings, you would have lost money.
This is due to the high implied volatility of the front week options.
If you trade before earnings, this is the risk you run.
Expect a separate email today on GOGO.? The short calls will no doubt expire worthless.
As for the markets, they finally broke down yesterday.
But that should be no shock to you as you know the VIX has been flirting once again with the 12.50 level.
And once again the VIX rallied to get back above it and close at 13.77 yesterday.
Here are the key levels for the markets.
Stocks...
?
VIX: ?
Major level - 17.19
Major level - 15.63
Minor level - 14.45
Major level - 14.06
Minor level - 13.67
Minor level - 12.89
Major level - 12.50
Minor level - 12.11
Major level - 10.94
A close today above 12.89 and 14.06 is the objective.
Actually the VIX is not far from it and if it breaks through that level, look for minor resistance at 14.45.
S & P 500 Cash Index: ?
Minor level - 2,132.82
Major level - 2,125.00
Major level - 2,109.40
Major level - 2,093.80
Minor level - 2,089.90
Minor level - 2,082.00
Major level - 2,078.10
Minor level - 2,074.20
Major level - 2,062.50
A close under 2,089.90 and the S & P 500 should drop to 2,078.10.? If the S & P breaks under 2,078 today, look how it reacts around the 2,074 level.
If the VIX reverses down, a long may set up.
Nasd 100 (QQQ): ?
Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 113.28
Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 112.11
Minor level - 111.33
Major level - 110.94
Minor level - 110.16
Major level - 109.38
A close today under 110.94 and the objective becomes 109.38.
TLT: ?
Major level - 125
Minor level - 122.66 ?
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 119.53 ?
Major level - 118.75
Minor level - 117.96
Minor level - 116.41
Major level - 115.63
The TLT closed yesterday at 122.73 or a few cents above the 122.66 level.
A close today above 122.66 and the objective becomes 125.
The TLT should be volatile today.
GLD:
Major level - 109.38
Minor level - 107.03
Major level - 106.25
Minor level - 105.46
Minor level - 103.91
Major level - 103.13
Minor level - 102.34
Major level - 100
The GLD is almost to the 103 objective.? This is a major level for the GLD.? A long term major support level is in the 101 to 103 area.
If it cannot hold, the GLD heads lower.
XLE:
Major level -? 75 ?
Minor level - 74.21
Minor level - 72.66
Major level - 71.88
Minor level - 71.09
Major level - 68.75
Minor level - 67.96
Major level - 65.63
Wow!? A bit of a dead cat bounce yesterday on the XLE.
I would like to see a rally up the 72 to 75 area as I believe that would set up a great short opportunity.
Sell against resistance levels.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 125, 118.75 and 112.50.
Yesterday, was the second close under 118.75, so the
objective is down to the 100 to 103 area.
Apple is getting the bounce from short term oversold levels.
The $119 area would be a place to think about getting short on Apple.? If it gets through that price, I don't think it gets through $125.? At least not on this drive.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks:? PCLN, GOOGL, REGN, AMZN, VRTX, PANW, BWLD, NFLX, EXPE, KMB, NKE, MLM, RAI, ALK
Bearish Stocks: RL, IBM, CVX, SLB, CVX, Z, CAT, EOG, DECK, XLE, LNG, UA, TWTR, FOSL
Be sure to check earnings release dates.