While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
DYN Long at $12.55
Premium Collected $0.48
APA Long Oct $47.50 Call at $3.45
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Last week saw mixed signals from the major markets. The DOW moved up strongly, closing 1.2% to the upside, at 22,092.81. This was the first week where the DOW closed above the 22,000 level.
When you think of the fact that the DOW hit a low of 17,883.56 just before the election last year, this was a move of 23.5% since November of 2016.
And in February of 2016, the DOW was at 15,450.56. If you measure the move since then, it was a 43% move in less than two years. I don't normally track the DOW because the S & P 500 is a much broader index. But, I do feel the DOW could run to as high as 25,000, so there is more room on the upside.
As the DOW was moving ups strongly last week, the S & P 500 contracted and actually formed a narrow range inside bar.
The range for the week was only 13.90 points, as compared with the average true range of 33.27. This tells us to expect an expansion, or at the very least an expansion is coming.
Last week, I discussed the 2,472 price level that was a support level from the prior weekly bar.
And everytime the S & P 500 got under it, it managed to recapture that level. Friday's low was exactly 2,472.08. Knowing where support levels from higher timeframe price bars can be really helpful ... and profitable.
For the this week, you support area should be between 2,473 to 2,476.
As for the NASD Composite, it closed for the week down 23.11. Like the S & P 500, it had a narrow range, but it did not form an inside bar.
This week the focus should continue to be on earnings. Last week had some of the largest moves off of earnings I have seen in a long time. Including the 35.8% jump on STMP. And there was the 45.34% drop on EFII.
Also, LL jumped 35.94%, while AAOI dropped 34.07%.
The S & P 500 is trading slightly to the upside before the open.
Continue to follow the resistance levels.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.84
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16 **
Major level: 9.38 <
Minor level: 8.60 **
Minor level: 7.03
Major level: 6.25
The VIX closed at 9.96 on Friday. It has closed back under the minor 10.16 level.
10.94 should continue to be minor resistance. And 11.72 should be a level that would be tough to break through.
9.77 should be minor support.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,484.38
Minor level: 2,453.12 <
Major level: 2,437.50 **
Minor level: 2,421.88
Minor level: 2,390.62
Major level: 2,375.00
Minor level: 2,359.38
Minor level: 2,328.12
Major level: 2,312.50
The S & P 500 closed at 2,476.63. The low for Friday was 2,472.08, right on the weekly support level.
Minor support should be at 2,476.60 and 2,472.70.
If the S & P can hold the 2,476 level, I would expect a move up to 2,484.
QQQ:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31 ***
Major level: 143.75 <
Minor level: 142.18
Minor level: 139.06
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.94
Minor level: 132.81
The QQQ closed at 143.65 yesterday.
Minor support should be at 143.43. 144.14 could offer resistance.
IWM:
Major level: 146.88
Minor level: 146.09
Minor level: 144.53
Major level: 143.75 **
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41 ***
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
The IWM closed above the minor 139.85 level. This should now act as support.
I would expect a retest of 140.63. If the IWM can close above 140.63, look for a move higher.
TLT:
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00 <<
Minor level: 124.61 **
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.03
The TLT broke back under the 125 level, closing at 124.93. To move lower, the TLT needs two closes under 124.61.
125 is a key balance level for the TLT, which is why I mentioned the straddle concept last week.
Support should be in the 123 area. Based on the 124.61 level and the 123 area, a break under these levels and the TLT should continue lower.
A close back above 125 would negate that scenario.
GLD:
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88 <<
Minor level: 120.32
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
At this point, to move lower, the GLD needs two closes under 120.32. Friday, it had its first close under that level.
Minor support is at 118.75. And minor resistance is at 120.31.
XLE:
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63 <<
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
The XLE closed once cent above the 65.63 level on Friday.
65.82 is minor resistance. And 64.85 is minor support.
FXY:
Minor level: 87.89
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.11
Minor level: 86.33 **
Major level: 85.94 <
Minor level: 85.55
Minor level: 84.77
Major level: 84.38
Minor level: 83.60
Minor level: 83.20
Major level: 82.81
The FXY closed at 86.88. It closed at 87.48. The move lower, the FXY will need two closes under 85.55. 87.50 is still a major resistance level. To move higher, the FXY will need to close above 87.50.
86.52 is minor support. 87.70 is minor resistance.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 153.13, 150, 146.88 143.75, and 140.63.
154.69 is still minor support. Watch the levels for the gap. If Apple can hold above this leve, look for a move up to 160.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: LMT, NOC, HUM, BIDU, STMP, UNH, LLL, RTN, ALGN, AET, AAPL, VRTX, CB, SYK, ACN, RCL, COL, AMT
Bearish Stocks: PANW, JACK, PRGO, WAGE, TEN, SGEN, CAKE, FLS, OMI
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
