As I glance up at my trading screen this morning and I see First Republic Bank (FRC) shares scoring hot, I know it means only one thing for tech stocks ($COMPQ) and that’s nothing positive.
Tech was trusted as the safety ground for investors during the global bank contagion that wreaked havoc on the supposed jewels of western banking like Credit Suisse in Switzerland.
It wasn’t supposed to happen like this.
Instead, investors coalesced around tech shares and precious metals.
They benefited as they caught a serious bid up in price.
That’s all unwinding as FRC prepares for its earnings report which most likely will signal that the worst of the storm has passed.
That’s on the heels of “too big to fail” banks like JP Morgan, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo reporting better than expected.
April will most likely turn into quite a dud for tech shares which is why I have cooled it on issuing trade alerts.
To prevent panic from spreading, governments and central banks stepped in literally overnight and offered a lifeline to financial institutions delivering historic rescue packages and emergency deals.
Western taxpayers bailing out the institutions has been a common theme since 2001.
Eventually, UBS, Switzerland’s biggest bank, was required by the government to buy its long-time rival Credit Suisse for three billion Swiss francs ($3.25 billion).
Clearly, failure is not an option. The impact would be devastating not only for Switzerland but for the global financial system. It should not be forgotten that 15 years ago, UBS itself needed rescuing by the Swiss government and central bank.
This doesn’t necessarily stop what was happening before meaning high indebtedness, excessive risk-taking, unreasonable exposure to liquidity risk, mismatch between assets and liabilities, poor investment performance, mismanagement.
Customer trust eroded for one sector means that often another sector wins in the short-term with capital flight hitting tech shares.
Some days it's important to notice that Apple shares could act as a second bank account.
APPL also rolled out a new savings account delivering Apple customers 4.15% of interest on their money. That was a smart move by CEO Tim Cook.
Now an unhealthy mix of soaring inflation, rising interest rates, and weaker economic growth could leave banks facing new problems, ranging from steep losses in bond value to higher funding costs and lower loan demand.
After the acute banking stress of the past weeks, a credit crunch could be looming. To adjust to an increasingly unfavorable macroeconomic context, banks have already substantially tightened their credit standards for all loan categories. But that is an additional blow to recession-stricken economies.
If there is another banking crisis following the last one we just experienced, expect big tech to get another avalanche of investors looking for a safe haven.
Although I am not one hoping for another disaster, the savvy investor must do what is right to preserve capital.
These are choppy water we see ourselves in and I do believe the sideways action in tech shares in April has been a big victory for tech.
April was the month investors were planning to dump shares and run for the hills, and that didn’t manifest itself.
The little volatility means that there was very little action taking place.
I understand that as a wildly bullish setup for tech earnings because much of the “bad” tech earnings have been priced into the news.
Conditions favor a mild bullish push in tech shares in May after they report better than first thought earnings.
