Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
March 10, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A NEW TECHNOLOGY TO EDIT GENES HITS THE MARKET)
(MRNA), (GILD)
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
March 10, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A NEW TECHNOLOGY TO EDIT GENES HITS THE MARKET)
(MRNA), (GILD)
The biotechnology market is estimated to surge over $775 billion by 2024 as experts in this sector continue to discover cutting-edge treatments for thousands of previously incurable diseases.
While gene-editing therapies have been dominating the rare disease field in the past years, Moderna Inc (MRNA) has been working on a novel but supposedly more effective solution.
Instead of altering the genes via the DNA of a person to treat the sickness, the company strengthens the messenger RNA (mRNA) to help the body fight the disease on its own.
Here’s Moderna’s take on why its treatments are more sustainable and effective in the long run.
Unlike DNA-based therapies, which target the nucleus of the cell, Moderna is developing mRNA treatments. According to the company, their method would be easier to implement compared to the more commonly used technique.
This is because the DNA is stored solely in the cell’s nucleus, which makes it difficult to access. In comparison, mRNA can be found throughout the cell, making it more readily available.
Moderna uses the same logic in developing its vaccine for the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) --- and they might have just hit the nail in the head here.
Since the coronavirus outbreak, Moderna has been at the forefront of the crisis. Using its patented technology, the company recently announced that it has created a new vaccine against this potential pandemic.
In fact, the first batch of COVID-19 vaccine called mRNA-1273 was already shipped to the National Institutes of Health for testing.
The first trial for this vaccine, which will include 20 to 25 volunteers, will be completed by April. Initial clinical data is estimated to be released by July or August.
Given the complexity of the situation and the limited information we have about the coronavirus, Moderna’s response was actually quite impressive.
After learning about the genetic composition of the coronavirus, the company was able to develop a potential vaccine in less than two months.
To put things in a better perspective, keep in mind that there are only two companies that have something to show for since this outbreak became public: Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Moderna.
However, Moderna’s output is different from Gilead’s treatment.
For one, Gilead’s approach is to build upon or reuse an existing antiviral drug Remdesivir to develop a coronavirus cure.
In comparison, Moderna created a new vaccine from scratch and still managed to get ahead of the pack.
Both companies stand to win though since the two treatments won’t be directly competing against each other.
Gilead’s drug aims to cure people who are already suffering from the coronavirus disease while Moderna offers a vaccine to avoid infection.
Aside from working on the coronavirus disease solution, Moderna has recently announced another promising mRNA-based vaccine called mRNA-1647.
This vaccine seeks to offer treatment for cytomegalovirus (CMV), which is a virus related to those that cause infectious mono and chickenpox.
While this disease is most dangerous to newborn babies because it could cause birth defects when transmitted through the pregnant mother, this is a common virus that can affect almost everybody.
In the US alone, approximately 50% to 80% of adults have been infected by the time they reach 40. Once you get infected by CMV, the virus stays in your body for life.
According to Moderna, the results of the Phase 2 trial for the CMV vaccine should be out by the third quarter of 2020. If all goes well, the company will enter the next phase by early 2021.
Although Moderna’s true value will only emerge when the company actually brings a product to market, it’s 32.5% jump in the first two months of this year is still noteworthy.
The fact that it is on track to deliver potentially lifesaving drugs in the form of the coronavirus and CMV vaccines also makes it a first-rate hedge against this current anxious and fearful market.
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
March 5, 2020
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL MARKET BOTTOM ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(TEN LONG TERM BIOTECH & HEALTH CARE LEAPS TO BUY AT THE BOTTOM)
(UNH), (HUM), (AMGN), (BIIB), (JNJ), (PFE), (BMY)
Joe Biden’s romp over Bernie Sanders in the Tuesday Democratic primary takes the lid off on the entire biotech and healthcare sector. Sanders has promised to dismantle the entire sector by promising Medicare for all and banning private coverage.
Sanders was also about to take a cudgel to drug pricing. While Sanders was leading in the primary, the threats hung over the industry like an 800-pound gorilla.
Yesterday, Sanders went down in flames. You can see this clearly in the price action of Humana (HUM), which rose a ballistic 14.44% yesterday. Similarly, United Health Group (UNH) was up a monster 10.72%.
It is safe to say that the bottom is in for biotech and healthcare stocks.
I am often asked how professional hedge fund traders invest their personal money. They all do the exact same thing. They wait for a market crash like we are seeing now and buy the longest-term LEAPs possible for their favorite names.
The reasons are very simple. The risk of a LEAP is limited. You can’t lose any more than you put in. At the same time, they permit enormous amounts of leverage.
Two years out, the longest maturity available for most LEAPs, allow plenty of time for the world and the markets to get back on an even keel. Recessions, pandemics, hurricanes, oil shocks, interest rate spikes, and political instability all go away within two years and pave the way for dramatic stock market recoveries.
You just put them away and forget about them. Wake me up when it is 2022.
I put together this portfolio using the following parameters. I set the strike prices just short of the all-time highs set two weeks ago. I went for the maximum maturity. I used today’s prices. And of course, I picked the names that have the best long-term outlooks.
If you buy LEAPs at these prices and the stocks all go to new highs, then you should earn an average 229% profit from an average stock price increase of only 11.4%. That is a return 20 times greater than the underlying stock gain. And let’s face it. None of the companies below are going to zero, ever. Now you know why hedge fund traders only employ this strategy.
There is a smarter way to execute this portfolio. Put in throw-away crash bids at levels so low they will only get executed on the next 1,000 point down day in the Dow Average.
You can play around with the strike prices all you want. Going farther out of the money increase your returns, but raises your risk as well. Going closer to the money reduces risk and returns, but the gains are still a multiple of the underlying stock.
Buying when everyone else is throwing up on their shoes is always the best policy. That way your return will rise to ten times the move in the underlying stock.
Amgen (AMGN) - January 21 2022 $235-$240 bull call spread at $3.68 delivers a 172% gain with the stock at $245, up 14% from the current level
Biogen (BIIB) - January 21 2022 $365-$375 bull call spread at $3.89 delivers a 157% gain with the stock at $375, up 14% from the current level
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - January 21 2022 $150-$155 bull call spread at $1.63 delivers a 206% gain with the stock at $155, up 8.3% from the current level
Pfizer (PFE) - January 21 2022 $40-$45 bull call spread at $1.05 delivers a 376% gain with the stock at $40.60, up 11.5% from the current level
Bristol Meyers Squibb (BMY) - January 21 2022 $65-$70 bull call spread at $1.50 delivers a 233% gain with the stock at $68, up 11.40% from the current level
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
March 3, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY ZOETIS STILL HAS MILES TO RUN)
(ZTS)
Zoetis (ZTS) has been an investor darling since it was spun off from Pfizer way back in 2013. From day one, this animal healthcare stock went public, shares have soared by a stunning 382%.
This stock’s popularity among growth investors stemmed from two emerging trends today. The first is the “humanization” of our pets through healthcare. The second is the rise in global demand for animal protein.
Both tailwinds have been responsible for the steady growth of Zoetis and are anticipated to continue to do so in the years to come.
With everything that has happened since we welcomed 2020 though, is Zoetis still a good stock to buy?
Earlier this month, Zoetis released its fourth-quarter earnings report for 2019. As usual, the company once again impressed its investors by beating estimates.
The company reported a quarterly revenue of $1.7 billion, indicating a 7% improvement from its performance in the same quarter in 2018.
Adjusted net income came in at $440 million, breaking down to earnings per share of $0.92.
In comparison, Wall Street estimates pegged Zoetis’ quarterly revenue at $1.6 billion with an EPS of $0.88.
Notably, Zoetis’ international business segments and its US market are practically equal in terms of size. Its US market raked in $861 million in revenue, showing off a 6% boost in this quarter. Meanwhile, its international sales increased by 9% to reach $791 million.
Although all these are enough to make investors happy, Zoetis’ 2020 guidance gave some of its investors pause.
According to the company, it estimates a jump in its annual growth somewhere between 5.5% and 8%, pushing its revenue from $6.3 billion to reach an amount somewhere between $6.65 billion and $6.8 billion.
However, this projection has been met with skepticism in light of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19).
Looking at its reports, roughly 3% or $200 million of Zoetis’ sales last year came from China.
Despite this, Zoetis appears to be confident that it can hit its goals this year.
The company’s companion animal business, which primarily sells medicines for cats and dogs, picked up the slack from the decline of its beef and dairy cattle markets.
In fact, revenue from the companion animal arm showed an 18% jump year over year and reached $784 million.
One of the main drivers in this sector is Zoetis’ dermatology brands, Apoquel and Cytopoint. Both are estimated to bring in roughly $700 million in annual sales. Boosting this momentum are the company’s parasiticide items like ProHeart 12 and Simparica.
However, it’s the launch of Simparica Trio that generated excitement among Zoetis investors.
Simparica Trio is the company’s new chewable “triple combination parasiticide for dogs.” According to the company’s guidelines, this product is expected to add at least $150 million in revenue for the last three quarters of 2020.
This new drug’s appeal lies in the fact that it can simplify the lives of pet owners. Simparica Trio only needs to be administered once a month.
After that, the pill can be relied on as a preventive measure against heartworm disease. It can also control ticks, intestinal nematodes, and fleas in dogs. With Simparica Trio, pet owners no longer need to buy and administer multiple products.
To date, this medicine has received regulatory approval in Canada and the European Union. It’s expected to receive US approval in the first half of this year.
Simparica Trio is also expected to broaden Zoetis’ market share in the parasiticides sector, where it only ranks fourth.
Zoetis is also looking to explore the lucrative market of osteoarthritis treatments for cats and dogs.
Taking a page off the world’s top-selling drug, Abbott Laboratories’ (ABT) blockbuster rheumatoid arthritis treatment Humira, the animal health company plans to create pain medication based on the same technology. If Zoetis succeeds, then it’ll be the first company to address this unmet market.
Apart from these, Zoetis will also expand its services to include diagnostics as well as digital and data analytics.
In fact, the company has started investing in “precision livestock farming.” A good example of this initiative is its Smartbow technology, which is a dairy cow monitoring system that utilizes motion detectors. These are attached to the animals’ ears in an effort to identify patterns that can signify health issues.
Zoetis has been one of the most attractive stocks on the market since 2013.
While a lot of healthcare and biotechnology companies are at risk for increased volatility this year especially with the US presidential election, this animal health stock should be relatively resistant to political drawbacks.
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
February 27, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MINING GOLD IN NICHE DRUGS)
(BLUE)
In 2019, approximately 1.8 million Americans were diagnosed with cancer. On a global scale, the total reaches almost 17 million. Hence, it comes as no surprise that over 700 biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies have been investing hugely in experimental cancer drugs.
Meanwhile, rare disease beta-thalassemia affects the lives of at least 1,000 or so patients in the United States alone. In a nutshell, people with this blood disorder do not have enough oxygen in various parts of their bodies.
Although beta-thalassemia is more prevalent in other countries, this disease impacts one in every 100,000 people. Given these numbers, you’d expect that only one or two biotechnology companies would be interested in looking for treatments.
By my last count though, I found at least a dozen biotechnology companies scrambling to come up with a drug for this rare disease.
While there may be a lot of underlying reasons for this focus on beta-thalassemia, one reason is the most obvious to me: beta-thalassemia is a lifelong disease that requires regular treatment throughout the life of the patient.
Among the biotechnology companies working on this sector, one name has emerged as the leader of the pact: bluebird bio (BLUE).
After unexpectedly doubling the price tag for gene therapy Zynteglo from the anticipated $900,000 to $1.8 million in Europe, bluebird bio (BLUE) announced that its expensive beta-thalassemia treatment will be available in the US sometime in the second half of 2020.
This gene therapy is the second most expensive treatment worldwide, with Novartis’ (NOVN) Zolgensma ranking first with a jaw-dropping $2.1 million price tag.
Following Novartis’ lead, installment plans will be offered to Zynteglo users.
While the details have yet to be ironed out, this bluebird bio gene therapy is expected to be paid over a period of five years. Notably, the patients will only pay for the treatment if it actually works for them.
That is, bluebird will not bind patients to pay the full $1.8 million if Zynteglo fails to alleviate their condition. They can even get reimbursements depending on the situation.
If successful, bluebird bio points out that Zynteglo can dramatically cut down not only on the financial burden of the patients but also reduce their suffering from the transfusions and treatments.
Here’s how this gene therapy works.
The first step is to harvest stem cells from the patient’s body. Then, chemotherapy is required to prepare the recipient’s bone marrow for gene therapy.
A healthy copy of the beta-globin gene, which is a component of hemoglobin, is subsequently implanted into the bone marrow and the body will be able to normally produce red blood cells.
If the patient’s body responds well to Zynteglo, then this means living over four years without the need for any transfusion.
In contrast, traditional treatments for this rare blood disorder include regular blood transfusions. There are also drugs needed to get rid of the extra iron from the patient’s system. At times, the spleen is even surgically removed.
Taking all these into consideration, bluebird bio defended its shocking price tag by pointing out that Zynteglo’s “intrinsic” value is actually worth $2.1 million.
This was calculated based on the claim that this treatment can deliver 22 quality-adjusted life-years to its users.
In effect, patients get a 15% discount on the total cost.
While it remains to be seen how the FDA will handle bluebird bio’s application for Zynteglo, the fact that this gene therapy has received approval in the European market gives the company its much needed push to pursue more innovative products geared towards rare diseases.
Apart from beta-thalassemia, Zynteglo is also being tested for another rare blood disorder called sickle cell disease.
Throughout 2019, bluebird bio’s income solely came from the license and royalty revenues derived from its collaboration with Celgene, which has since been acquired by Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY).
The two companies worked together on cancer cell therapies called ide-cel and bb21217. Analysts estimate that both drugs could achieve blockbuster sales potential in the multiple myeloma sector.
Adding to Zynteglo and the cancer therapies in its pipeline is another rare genetic disorder gene therapy called Lenti-D.
This specifically targets cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy, which is a deadly genetic brain disease that affects 1 in 17,000 males. Bluebird bio is expected to seek FDA approval for Lenti-D by the second half of 2020.
Bluebird bio currently has a market cap of roughly $5 billion, which I think provides it plenty of room to maneuver and grow.
Since the lifeblood of any biotechnology company is its pipeline, I can see how well-positioned bluebird bio is in this aspect.
At this point, it already has a couple of winners in its portfolio with Zynteglo, Lenti-D, and the multiple myeloma drugs with Celgene.
With these in mind, it’s easy to see that bluebird bio will transform into a huge winner over the next 10 years or even earlier.
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
February 25, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WARREN BUFFETT’S LOVE AFFAIR WITH BIOGEN),
(BIIB)
Coca-Cola (KO). Apple (APPL). American-Express (AXP). And now…. Biogen (BIIB).
Has the Oracle of Omaha turned into the Gambler of Omaha? Warren Buffett turned heads when news broke that Berkshire Hathaway bought 648,447 Biogen shares with a combined worth of $192.4 million.
With a huge question mark hanging over the biotechnology company for months now, this is an unusually risky move for an investment powerhouse known for its rock-solid strategies.
By Buffett standards though, $192.4 million is nothing but a drop in the over half-trillion-dollar bucket. This indicates that the conglomerate isn’t exactly betting the farm on the stock especially with questions on its Alzheimer’s cure still remaining unanswered.
Nonetheless, I can think of at least three reasons why Biogen stock attracted the fourth wealthiest man in the world.
A quick look at Biogen’s profile and the remarkable history of its blockbuster spinal muscular atrophy drug Spinraza immediately outshines the rest of the drugs in its portfolio.
Despite worries that Novartis’ (NOVN) newly released gene therapy Zolgensma would bump off Spinraza, the Biogen drug has been holding down its own, showing off a 16% jump year over year to hit $543 million in sales in the fourth quarter of 2019.
Another exciting development for the biotechnology company is its strengthened multiple sclerosis (MS) franchise.
While Biogen’s MS sales have been struggling to hit its usual stellar numbers recently, the company scored a huge victory earlier this month when the Patent Trial and Appeal Board of the US Patent and Trademark’s Office rejected Mylan’s (MYL) challenge against Biogen’s key patent for Tecfidera.
Since Tecfidera is one of Biogen’s top grossing treatments, this recent ruling secured that the MS bestseller won’t have to worry about generic competition until 2028. Apart from that, this win means that the company could count on a sustained earnings from this bestseller.
The third reason is arguably the most controversial, but possibly the most important one to date.
Following a near-death experience with its Alzheimer’s disease treatment Aducanumab last year, Biogen stunned the biotechnology world when it decided to resurrect the experiment based on new clinical data.
Given that Phase 3 is dubbed as the “graveyard” stage since practically 99% of experimental drugs fail here, Biogen’s move to keep pushing despite its expensive failures has investors baffled and excited at the same time.
Basically, the problem in finding an Alzheimer’s cure is our inability to fully grasp the underlying science.
What we know so far is that the disease is caused by plaques in the brain. Now, experts normally pursue two leads. They either go after the plaques and search for ways to cure those or take a step back and look at the possible causes of the plaques and target those instead.
Biogen worked on these hypotheses up until March 2019, when they announced that the trial had been discontinued.
However, the company went back months after and disclosed that they’ll resume the study. After combing through their data, they noticed that the group of patients in the earlier stage of the disease actually responded well on Aducanumab.
One notable effect of the experimental Alzheimer’s disease medication is that it slowed down the patients’ cognitive decline.
While it’s certainly reasonable to question these retrospective ad-hoc reports especially since companies tend to mine for data just to recoup their investments on the trials, Biogen’s ability to back their claims with verifiable numbers makes them more credible.
This gamble is far from a slam dunk but an FDA approval for Aducanumab would guarantee the addition of another blockbuster drug in the Biogen lineup.
And though the company has a long way to go, this Alzheimer’s gamble is definitely a high-risk, high-reward opportunity, with an estimated $10 billion in peak sales.
Aside from Aducanumab, Biogen has other promising candidates. The notable ones include rare amyotrophic lateral sclerosis treatment BIIB067 and ischemic stroke medication BIIB093.
Buffett has never been much of a gambler when it comes to his career. With this recent investment on Biogen stock though, the billionaire investor appears to have given his stamp of approval to what can only be the riskiest bets in Berkshire’s history.
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