Mad Hedge Hot Tips
June 3, 2019
Fiat Lux
The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)
1) Recession to Start in a Year, says Morgan Stanley, if the trade war doesn’t end soon. Actually, a year may be conservative. The recession may have already started, but we won’t see it in the data for three months. Reduce risk and buy the (SDS) on market rallies.
Click here to read the rest of today's Hot Tips
Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 31, 2019
Fiat Lux
The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)
1) Another New Tariff War Crushes Stocks, with an out-of-the-blue 5% tax to hit Mexican imports next weekend to battle illegal immigration. American manufacturing is thrown into turmoil. Click here.
2) Oil Gets Crushed, taking oil stocks into a swan dive. Trade wars, US overproduction, what’s not to panic about? A great entry point for high-yield master limited partnerships is setting up. Buy (AMPL) on capitulation day with an 8.06% yield. Click here.
3) Inflation Rises, with Personal Income Expenditure up 0.3%, a 0.3% high. It looks like the Fed’s theory that low inflation is “transitory” is holding water. Click here.
4) Uber Loses $1 Billion in Q1, on $3.2 billion worth of revenues. However, (UBER) is one of the few stocks UP today. The company is delivering a staggering 17 million rides a day. Click here.
5) The Average Dow Return in a Pre-Election Year is 15.8%, with dividends, but we’ve never had one during a trade war. The market is going to have to peddle hard to make that much this year, with the Dow now up only 7.26%. Click here.
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch:
(JUNE 21 AUCKLAND NEW ZEALAND STRATEGY LUNCH)
(MAY 29 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(TLT), (SDS), (SPX), (FXI), (CYB), (PYPL), (SQ), (V), (AMEX), (MC), (GS), (JPM), (C), (NVDA), (MU),
(AMD), (COPX), (FXB) (REMX)
Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 30, 2019
Fiat Lux
The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)
1) It’s All About the GDP Now, with Q1 revised down from 3.2% to 3.1% and inflation falling. Will the trade war drive the world into recession? The data flow has suddenly taken a nasty turn on all front except for Consumer Confidence, a deep lagging indicator. The folks at the mall are the last to learn of a recession. Click here.
2) More Bad News for Real Estate, with April Pending Home Sales down 1.5%. If rates this low can’t help it, nothing will. Where are those SALT deductions? Click here.
3) Here Comes the Rare Earths War, as China, 98% of the world supply, looks to ban the export of these obscure metals. You can't build anything electronic without them, including advanced weapons. So, what’s your neodymium position? Buy the (REMX) on dips. Click here.
4) A Federal Court Looks to Ban High-Frequency Trading, by making the major exchanges liable for customer losses in a major class action suit. Machines now control 80%-90% of all exchange trading. It’s about time. Click here.
5) Tesla Will Dominate the EV Market through 2025, says IHS Markit, a London based consulting firm. EV share of total car sales will rocket from 1.2% to 7.6%, with the number of models leaping from 43 to 120. Tesla will build 400,000 cars this year, while the next runner up can only produce 25,000. Doing the math, maybe Elon Musk is not so crazy after all. Click here.
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:
(FRIDAY JULY 19 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND STRATEGY SEMINAR)
(HOW THE MAD HEDGE MARKET TIMING ALGORITHM TRIPLED MY PERFORMANCE),
(TESTIMONIAL)
(IS TARGET THE NEXT FANG?)
(TGT), (AMZN), (WMT)
Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 29, 2019
Fiat Lux
The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)
SPECIAL MORE PAIN TO COME ISSUE
1) The Double Top in Bonds is Only Three Points Away, taking you to a 2.05% yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds. The July 2016 top is where you want to start laying out their short positions in bonds again, or $133 in the (TLT). Yields are inverting too, with short rates topping long rates in this always accurate recession predictor. Click here.
2) The Trade War Ramps Up, with China moving to ban FedEx and restricting rare earth exports to the US essential for all electronics manufacture. The big question in investor minds becomes “Is Apple next?” Click here.
3) US Car Sales Are Fading, as another pillar of the US economy crumbles. Expect the Big Three will become the Big Two in the next recession. Click here.
4) Boeing 737 MAX Not Returning Until August, says IATA head, creating a massive shortage of aircraft this summer. Too bad (BA) has become a punching bag in the trade war. Click here.
5) OECD Cuts Global Growth Forecast, from 3.9% to 3.1% for 2019 because of you know what. Stock markets are now down for their fifth week, as the 200-day moving average comes within striking distance. Click here.
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:
(WEDNESDAY JULY 10 BUDAPEST HUNGARY STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(ONSHORING TAKES ANOTHER GREAT LEAP (TSLA), (UMX), (EWW), FORWARD),
(KISS THAT UNION JOB GOODBYE),
(CHINA TO BAN FEDEX)
(HUAWEI), (AMZN), (FDX), (UPS), (DPSGY), (BABA), (ZTO)
Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 28, 2019
Fiat Lux
The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)
1) Bond Market Says the Recession is Already Here, with ten-year interest rates at 2.27%, a new 2019 low. German bunds hit negative -0.16%. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Diamond says the trade war could cause real damage to the US economy. Click here.
2) The Bear Market in Home Prices Continues, in March, with the Case Shiller CoreLogic National Home Price Index showing a 3.7% annual price gain, down 0.2%. Home price in San Francisco is posting negative numbers. When will those low-interest rates kick in? Click here.
3) US Capital Goods Fall Out of Bed, in April, down 0.9%, in another important pre-recession indicator. No company with sentient management wants to expand capacity ahead of an economic slowdown. Click here.
4) From Red State to Welfare State, and from farmer to ward of the state. The administration’s $16 billion bailout of the farm states won’t cover a fraction of the damage the trade war has done. Farmers are switching crops not to meet demand but to gain the maximum government payouts. Most would rather work for living and prefer free trade. Click here.
5) Heard at SALT. Decentralization is the next big trend in technology. To move out of Silicon Valley into the rest of the country, you only need a laptop and a broadband connection to start up a new company. Costs are cheaper, and staff is available. That’s what Mark Cuban told me.
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:
SPECIAL MEMORIAL DAY ISSUE
(A TRIBUTE TO A TRUE VETERAN)
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR HERE COMES THE HEAD AND SHOULDS TOP)
(CHINA’S RARE EARTH WEAPON)
(TSLA), (AAPL), (LMT), (BAESY), (RTN)
Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 24, 2019
Fiat Lux
The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)
1) All Markets Now Signaling Recession, with bonds up huge and everything else down huge, like all stocks, oil, commodities, and real estate. Technology is leading the charge to the downside. The bigger they are, the harder they fall. Ten-year US Treasury yields plunge to 2.30%. It might be a good summer to take a round the world cruise. Click here.
2) Mad Hedge Market Timing Index Dives to 28, from a high of 72 just weeks ago. That means stocks have more downside to go, and a solid “BUY” won’t appear for two months. Click here.
3) The Federal Reserve Warns that Trade Could Demolish the Recovery. You break it, you own it. Isn’t it amazing how quickly panics happen? Risk happens fast. Click here.
4) Tesla Production May Hit New Record in Q2. That’s why I bought (TSLA) yesterday. The 5.3% 2025 convertible bonds are essentially a no risk 10% yield here for the next six years. Tweeting is out, leaked documents are in, and not an SEC offending coming from Elon Musk anywhere. Is this the new business model? Click here.
5) British Prime Minister Theresa May Resigns, sending the British pound into a tailspin. Brexit goes on hold one more time. Click here.
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch:
(MONDAY JULY 8 VENICE, ITALY STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(FROM THE FRONT LINE OF THE TRADE WAR)
(SPY), (AAPL), (TLT)
Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 23, 2019
Fiat Lux
The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)
1) The Tech Cold War is Dominating Trading, triggering a global stock market route. The bond market, at two-year highs, says the recession is already here. If you didn’t make your money in Q1, you’re screwed. In the cruelest move, China blocked the broadcast of the final episode of Game of Thrones, forcing fanatics to search the Internet for the final conclusion. Click here.
2) The Fed is Patient, and indefinitely so. That is the revelation coming out of yesterday’s Fed minutes. That means the next rate move will be a cut more likely than a hike, and this is BEFORE the trade war saw a major escalation. Watch bond yields (TLT) fall to new lows. Click here.
3) No China Meetings for at Least a Month, says US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Don’t expect any respite from this front. It seems preventing Trump’s tax returns from being released is taking up all his time. Also, the US government runs out of money at summer’s end, unless the Democratic-controlled House opens up the checkbook first. Click here.
4) New Homes Sales Down 6.9% in April. As in past cycles, they are seeing the recession first, despite ultra-low interest rates. Prices here still rising, thanks to trade war-induced rocketing materials and lumber costs. Click here.
5) Heard at SALT. US Consumer Debt Service is only 10% of disposable income. That is reasonably low and may suggest that we may have longer to go until the next recession. Consumer Spending accounts for a gargantuan 70% of the US economy.
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:
(TUESDAY, JUNE 25 SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(DINING WITH THE BOTTOM 20%)
(ANOTHER 5G PLAY TO LOOK AT)
(EQIX), (CSCO), (GOOGL), (MSFT), (ORCL)
Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 22, 2019
Fiat Lux
The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)
1) Fed Minutes Out at 2:00 PM EST. Now we find out what they REALLY think in this review of their last meeting six weeks ago. Will a stock market crash force them to cut interest rates? Or will a China-induced slowdown of economic data do it first? Expect the market to be dead until the release, as it usually is. The data is pre-trade war so there are still giant shoes to fall. Click here.
2) Nordstrom Gets Slaughtered, with the stock down 10%, thanks to collapsing sales and earnings. It seems no one buys shoes in Seattle anymore. Half of retailers won’t be around in a year, with the sector in a complete trade war-induced meltdown. Avoid (JWN) like the plague. There is no place to hide. Click here.
3) Existing Home Sales Shed 0.4%, to only 5.19 million units in April, despite year-low mortgage interest rates. The good news is that inventory shrank to 4.2 months. A lot of homes are now for sale at “aspirational” prices, with sellers hanging on to last year’s prices. I don’t understand why investors are buying the homebuilder stocks, unless its anticipation of the return of SALT deductions in two years. Click here.
4) Three Chinese Airlines Sue Boeing, over loss of use of the 737 MAX. The headaches are only just beginning. (BA) stock is still looking for a final bottom. Click here.
5) Heard at SALT. Some $3 trillion is spent on US Healthcare annually, 14% of GDP, but only 2% goes to prevention. Talk about aiming at where the targets AREN’T. At least 75% of human illnesses are self-induced. Click here.
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:
SPECIAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ISSUE
(HERE’S AN EASY WAY TO PLAY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE)
(BOTZ), (NVDA), (ISRG)
(TUESDAY JULY 5 CAIRO EGYPT STRATEGY DINNER)
(WHY YOU NEED TO CONSIDER ALIBABA)
(BABA), (AMZN)
Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 21, 2019
Fiat Lux
The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)
1) Tesla Breaks $200, as fears of Chinese boycotts chop earnings forecasts. Another autonomous driving death in Florida didn’t help either. $180 here we come. Stay out of the way for now, but a generational “BUY” is setting up here. Expect a monster rally on a trade war resolution. They still own the future, but how much will you pay today? Click here.
2) US to Grant Huawei Parts Exemptions on a Case by Case Basis, giving some market reprieve day. Here, political connections are everything, but the paperwork demands are enormous. Tech rebounds. Click here.
3) Some 90% of the Net Buying in the Market Now is Buy Back, shrinking the float of available shares by 4% this year, and more than 10% for single stocks like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Cisco Systems (CSCO), and Oracle (ORCL). Buy ALL of the buyback stocks on dips. Click here.
4) Trade War Hits Home Depot, and poor weather kept handymen at home. Stocks get hot. Here’s another chance to buy quality at a discount. Buy (HD) on dips. Click here.
5) Remember Rare Earths? We made a killing during the bubble eight years ago in metals like Europium and Niobium. China accounts for 98% of the global supply which are essential for most electronic parts and essential for defense. Buy the (VMX). Click here.
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:
(TUESDAY JULY 2 NEW DELHI INDIA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(REPORT FROM THE 2019 LAS VEGAS SALT CONFERENCE)
(HUAWEI HITS THE FAN)
(HUAWEI), (MU), (NVDA), (GOOGL), (FB), (TWTR), (APPL)
Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 20, 2019
Fiat Lux
The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)
1) Stocks Dive on Trade War Escalation, with technology taking the biggest hit. Fears of Chinese retaliation are rampant. Click here.
2) Huawei Blacklists US Chipmakers, taking the sector down 5% across the board. A generational “BUY” is setting up for (NVDA), (MU), and (LRCX). Click here.
3) Tesla Breaks $200, as fears of Chinese tariff hikes hit its parts supply. Analysts cite other “distractions” like the SEC. Wait for the final capitulation. The “BUY” for (TSLA) is setting up. Subsidies to return on 2021. Click here.
4) Ford to Lay Off 7,000, as it struggles to cope with dislocations of the trade war. Avoid (F), they entered the electric car business too late. Click here.
5) Meet John Thomas During His 2019 World Tour
Friday, June 21 12:30 PM Auckland, New Zealand
Monday, June 24 12:30 PM Melbourne, Australia
Tuesday, June 25 12:30 PM Sydney, Australia
Wednesday, June 26 12:30 PM Brisbane, Australia
Friday, June 28 12:30 PM Perth, Australia
Sunday, June 30 12:30 PM Manila, Philippines
Tuesday, July 2 12:30 PM New Delhi, India
Friday, July 5 12:30 PM Cairo, Egypt
Monday, July 8 12:30 PM Venice, Italy
Wednesday, July 10 12:30 PM Budapest, Hungary
Friday, July 19, 3:00 PM Zermatt, Switzerland
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR I’LL TAKE SOME OF THAT!)
(FXI), (CYB), (TSLA), (AAPL), (BA), (WMT), (TLT), (INTU), (GOOGL)
(THE BIG PLAY IN CISCO)
(CSCO), (JNPR), (ANET), (INTC), (GOOGL), (AMZN)
