Global Market Comments
May 19, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JUNE 17 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(MAY 21 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(COME TO THE JUNE 13-14 INVEST LIKE A MONSTER LAS VEGAS CONFERENCE)
Come join Mad Day Trader Jim Parker and I for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Luncheon, which we will be conducting in New York, NY on Tuesday, June 17, 2014. An excellent three course lunch will be provided. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $248.
The formal luncheon will run from 12:00 to 2:00 PM. I?ll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The event will be held at a prestigious private club on Central Park South, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
Please come to hear me,?Mad Hedge Fund Trader?John Thomas, as the keynote speaker at the?Invest Like a Monster Las Vegas Conference?on June 13-14.
I will be joined by many old friends from across the investment spectrum. Jon and Pete Najarian will teach you the tricks of the trade for navigating the ever complex options markets.
Fellow former combat pilot, Chuck Hughes, will go into depth on his own highly successful approach to trading the market. To listen to my in depth interview with him on?Hedge Fund Radio, please?click here.
Well known market commentator Guy Adami, the Prince of New Jersey, will be there to give his trading insights. So will former hedge fund manager and Yahoo Finance guru Jeff Macke.
The first day will be devoted to three educational sessions that get into the nitty gritty of trading options. The day winds up with a cocktail party with the Najarian Brothers and me.
I will kick off the Saturday session with and extended presentation on the long-term future of the financial markets, to be followed by an extensive question and answer session. I will be followed by an impressive lineup of market veterans.
The event will be held at the?Bellagio Hotel?on the Strip, my favorite Las Vegas haunt, best known for its spectacular water fountains out front. You may recognize it in the hit movies?The Hangover?and?Ocean?s Eleven.
General admission costs $499 for the two full days. You can buy a VIP ticket for $699, which includes social events with the high and the mighty. It is all great value for the money, given the quality and quantity of the information you will obtain. Just click here: http://www.optionmonster.com/events/?refId=186?to buy tickets.
Trademonster?s proprietary program, called Heat Seeker ?, monitors no less than 180,000 trades a second to give an early warning of large trades that are about to hit the stock, options, and futures markets. To give you an idea of how much data this is, think of downloading the entire contents of the Library of Congress, about 20 terabytes, every 33 minutes.
The firm maintains a 10 gigabyte per second conduit that transfers data at 6,000 times the speed of a T-1 line, the fastest such pipe in the civilian world. The firm then distills this ocean of data into the top movers of the day, which is put up for free on its website, and offers much more detailed analysis through a premium subscription product.
?As with the NFL,? says Jon, ?you can?t defend against speed?. The system catches big hedge funds, pension funds, and mutual funds shifting large positions, giving subscribers a peak at the bullish or bearish tilt of the market. It also offers accurate predictions of imminent moves in single stock and index volatility.
Jon started his career as a linebacker for the Chicago Bears, and I can personally attest that he still has a handshake that?s like a steel vice grip. Maybe it was his brute strength that enabled him to work as pit trader on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange for 22 years, where he was known by his floor call letters of ?DRJ.? He formed Mercury Trading in 1989 and then sold it to the mega hedge fund, Citadel, in 2004.
Jon developed his patented algorithms for Heat Seeker? with his brother Pete, another NFL player (Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Minnesota Vikings), who like Jon, is a regular face in the financial media.
June is a great time to visit Sin City, as the crowds are largely gone and the sun is wonderfully baking hot. You can ride the neck-breaking roller coaster at the New York New York Hotel, catch one of eight?Cirque du Soleil?shows, and ride a gondola at the Venetian Hotel.
Or you can try to get a great deal on a luxury item from my buddy, Rick Harrison, at the famous?Gold and Silver Pawn, of?Pawn Stars?fame (good luck with that!).
Just be sure to bring extra sun tan lotion!
Hanging with the Big Dogs in Vegas
Global Market Comments
May 16, 2014
Fiat Lux
(SPECIAL DAVID TEPPER ISSUE),
Featured Trade:
(AN EVENING WITH DAVID TEPPER),
(SPY), (QQQ), (IWM) (TLT), (FXE)
(MAY 21 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
Global Market Comments
May 15, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(CHICAGO FRIDAY, MAY 23 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON),
(AN AFTER NOON WITH GENERAL COLIN POWELL)
Global Market Comments
May 14, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JUNE 26 ISTANBUL, TURKEY STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(I?M OFF TO THE LAS VEGAS SALT CONFERENCE),
(THE TECHNICAL/FUNDAMENTAL TUG OF WAR),
(SPY), (INDU), (IWM)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
I often get asked where I obtain the sources for my endless flood of interesting information.
For example, this week I will be meeting with the former leader of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev, the prime ministers of Greece and Australia, Mohamed El-Erian, formerly the co-head of bond giant PIMCO, Michael J. Fox of Flashboys and Moneyball fame, hedge fund legends Daniel Loeb and Leon Cooperman, leading short seller Jim Chanos, General Keith Alexander of US Cyber Command, oilman T. Boone Pickens, George W. Bush political advisor Karl Rove, former defense secretary Chuck Hegel, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and comedian Rob Reiner, one of the original actors in All in the Family.
Suffice it to say, I get around a bit.
As I always do at this time of the year, I will be spending the rest of this week attending the 7th annual SALT conference at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas. This is the preeminent annual get together of the major players in the hedge fund industry.
There, I will hook up with readers, consulting clients, old pals and former staff, many of whom now run their own multi billion-dollar hedge funds. I could write a letter entirely composed of tips from my former employees, and it would be a damn fine one too.
On Friday, May 8, I will sneak away for a few hours to present my own Las Vegas Global Strategy Luncheon to a select group of Mad Hedge Fund Trader subscribers. There are still a few tickets available. Just click here to purchase one.
SALT is organized by my old friend, Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, which manages and advises over $10 billion of hedge fund assets.
According to the terms of my invitation, I am not permitted to directly quote, record, or photograph any of the speakers. Such an off-the-record format enables them to open up and share thoughts on what?s really happening in today?s complex markets.
But as readers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader you will greatly benefit from whatever views and hard factual information I pick up in future letters. It is a level of access you can?t obtain elsewhere.
The SkyBridge Alternatives (SALT) Conference is committed to facilitating balanced discussions and debates on macro-economic trends, geo-political events and alternative investment opportunities within the context of a dynamic global economy.
With over 2,000 thought leaders, business professionals, hedge fund managers, and investors from over 26 countries and 6 continents, the SALT Conference provides an unmatched opportunity for attendees from around the world to connect with global leaders and network with industry peers.
Over the course of the program, more than 100 speakers will participate in some three-dozen panels, speeches and breakout sessions that address critical geopolitical and economic issues. The agenda is designed to provide multiple perspectives on a variety of salient topics within the context of a dynamic global economy.
For more information about the SALT Conference, please visit their website at http://www.saltconference.com.
Global Market Comments
May 13, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JUNE 23 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(THE ENDLESS SUMMER OF 2014), (SPX),
(RIDING WITH TREASURY SECRETARY JACK LEW)
S&P 500 Index (SPX)
We have just endured three weary months of tedious range trading, typical of a normal summer?s action. The problem is that the actual summer is about to begin. Are we going to suffer another three months of tedious range trading? Is summer trading this year going to last a full six months?
Is this the endless summer of 2014?
That is the alarming conclusion of the many hardened and seasoned traders I know. I have been saying all year that 2014 might be a fourth quarter year. It?s looking like my worst nightmare is coming true. Can you blame my friends for throwing in the towel?
The fact that almost all traditional trading tools have recently been utterly worthless hasn?t helped.
Take technical analysis. In a flat market, commentators urge you to buy every false upside breakout, and then sell every false breakdown, only to see it snap back in the opposite direction the next day. You don?t have to suffer too many round trips following this strategy before you run out of money.
Economic data isn?t useful either. It has been unrelentingly positive, as have corporate earnings, with a few notable exceptions (Amazon (AMZN), Fire Eye (FEYE)). Yet, the market can?t carry out a sustained rally, frustrating bulls to no end. It seems that one day, the market is discounting an heroic? 3% GDP growth rate this year, the next day only a disappointing 2%.
Talk about a bipolar market.
The (SPX) better get a move on. The dismal Q1 report showed that the economy actually shrunk by -0.2%-0.8%. That only allows for three more quarters to stage a comeback, requiring absolutely torrid growth rates. Maybe this is why stocks can?t go down either.
Everyone knows the market will be up on the year, and they don?t want to sell positions for fear they won?t be able to get back in when the long awaited breakout finally happens. That would bring a second year of relative underperformance in a row for most portfolio managers, not exactly a career boosting move.
So while the market is tearing the petals off my own 2014 performance with a ?love me, love me not? torture routine, I think I?ll stay on the sidelines. That?s why I bailed on my last remaining position, a small long in the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX), taking yet another shaving cut on my numbers.
The only way to survive in this industry for the long term is to stay out when you don?t understand what is happening. There are times when there is just no money to be made in the market. This is one of those times.
Screaming at it, throwing your handset through your monitor, or tossing your PC out the window, all things I have seen frustrated traders do, isn?t going to improve the situation.
Go watch a season of Game of Thrones instead.
Better Than Watching the Market
I was perusing my morning email in Zermatt a few weeks ago, and spotted the familiar White House address with the .gov ending. Would I be interested in meeting with the new Treasury Secretary, Jack Lew? It was just what I needed to lure me out of my Alpine lair back to the USA. I responded ?yes,? and instructions followed to meet him at the private jet terminal at San Francisco on August 22.
Half a globe and nine time zones later found me shaking hands with the nation?s 76th Treasury Secretary. The man is maybe 5?8? and squinted at me through wire frame glasses as he gave me a firm handshake. He wore the standard DC uniform, a dark solid suit with a white shirt, which I always thought made everyone look like undertakers.
?You can ride with me to my next event,? he said, inviting me into a spanking new tan GM Suburban with tinted windows. I thought ?Why not GM?? After all, until very recently the government owned a third of the troubled company. After the 1980 Chrysler bailout, that firm provided government rides for decades.
We then took off, escorted by a second Suburban packed with Secret Service agents and bracketed by two California Highway Patrol cars with red lights flashing, racing down Highway 101 at 80 miles an hour. ?Where are we going,? I wondered. ?Google, Apple, or Facebook??
Lew is the first Treasury Secretary appointed in many years who I did not already know. I dated back to the eighties with Tim Geithner in my Tokyo days after he read my books on Japan. Of course, I was long familiar with Hank Paulson from his time with Goldman Sachs, when I was first a competitor, and later a hedge fund client. So my goal today was to try to get the measure of Lew and figure out who he really was.
Lew told me that he was taking over a ship far more seaworthy than the one Geithner inherited four years ago. GDP has bounced back from a negative 5% to a 2% annual rate. Job growth rebounded from 700,000 losses to 200,000 gains a month. Automobile production returned from the grave, soaring from 9 million to 16 million annual units.
Taxes have been lowered for 98% of taxpayers, and major reform has been carried out in financial services, health care, and education. These gains have been made, despite a fiscal drag created by congress that is slowing the economy by 1% this year.
There was still plenty of work to do on jobs, a task made more difficult by the fact that the Republicans have opposed every jobs bill of the past four years. That is why boosting exports has been a top administration priority. The offshoring trend has slowed, and may even be reversing. Fixing our broken immigration system and getting college costs under control are also important.
Yes, it was all the standard Obama party line. But as this was our first meeting, I couldn?t expect a lot of confidences. Lew lacked the intellectual muscle of his predecessor, Geithner, who could discuss the most obscure parts of the financial history of the world with amazing depth. Lew struck as more of a technocrat with impressive experience in the day to day management of government institutions.
I asked Lew why he was known as the ?father of sequestration,? which has drained $85 billion out of the economy this year. He said the plan was a worst-case scenario that was never intended to be implemented. ?Who would have thought the Gang of Six wouldn?t get anywhere on this?? he asked.
Lew then went on to hint that an equally punitive Sequester II might be on the way in the wake of the next debt ceiling deadline in December. The Republicans are using the credit rating of the United States as a political lever, and the economy will suffer as a result.
Business and consumer confidence suffered a body blow during the last debt ceiling negotiations in 2011, and a jittery stock market plunged 25%. Lew confessed that he didn?t know how long cash on hand will last, and that social security checks, Medicare reimbursements, and payments to veterans may have to be halted.
I asked why the administration had declared war on the banking system. He opined that 2008 was a failure of regulation and oversight. The financial system should be big and healthy enough to finance every good idea and provide loans to all credit worthy homebuyers. A strong and vibrant financial system was important for the US and the world.
But risks for taxpayers must be reduced, which is the goal of Dodd Frank. Only 40% of the mandated rules have been drafted, and 60% of the deadlines have been missed, thanks to the overwhelming complexity of the task. International cooperation is needed to prevent business from flowing to the weakest regulator.
It was the day of the NASDAQ failure, and our conversation was interrupted by urgent calls from Washington several times. First there was SEC head, Mary Jo White, and then NASDAQ, Chief Robert Greifeld. When president Obama called for an update, the Treasury Secretary pulled out an armored and heavily encrypted cell phone and spoke in murmured tones. All I could make out during his calm and matter-of-fact explanation was ?server down? and ?no back up?.
The subject of China came up, and Lew confided that he had already met with president Xi Jinping several times. It was clear that the Middle Kingdom had over invested in manufacturing, creating a dangerous level of excess capacity. ?They agree with our recommendations,? he said with some surprise. I said I noticed that too. The real problem was in the execution, getting anything done in an emerging economy of 1.2 billion.
I cautioned the Treasury Secretary not to repeat the same mistake Geithner made in his early days and brand China a ?currency manipulator,? even if it was true. You don?t want to do that to someone who is holding $1 trillion of our debt, and until recently accounted for the purchase of half of all new Treasury issues.
We covered a broad range of other international financial issues, which I can?t discuss here for national security reasons. I hope I don?t read about them on Wikileaks someday.
A native of New York City, Lew did his undergrad at Harvard and his law degree at Georgetown. On graduation, he moved down the street and went straight into politics, where he worked for house majority leader, Tip O?Neill. He held several senior government posts during the Clinton administration. His wilderness years during the Bush administration were spent at New York University, and as the chief operating officer of Citicorp (C).
When president Obama took charge, Lew returned as an assistant Secretary of State, then Director of the Office of Management and Budget, and eventually to White House Chief of Staff. He is said to know more about the American budgeting process than any man alive, a talent that will prove useful in his current incarnation.
I couldn?t help but inquire about his pick for Ben Bernanke?s replacement, the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Somewhat irritated, he shot back, ?I will keep my advice in the Oval Office where it belongs.?
I finally pulled out what seasoned journalists call their ?throw away? question, the one, if asked, is so annoying that it gets you thrown out of the room, or in this case, left by the side of the freeway. ?Why a lawyer as Treasury Secretary? Wouldn?t someone with a more substantial economic background be better suited to the task??
He smiled when he answered that our first Treasury Secretary, Alexander Hamilton, was also a lawyer (click here for my in-depth piece on him in ?The Two Century Dollar Short?). Several men have recently held the post that came from industry or other professions.
In that case, I cautioned him not to befall the fate of Hamilton, who was shot in a duel by vice presidential candidate, Aaron Burr, on a New Jersey shore.
Just then, our procession pulled up to the Computer History Museum where Lew had to deliver a speech. I said he knew my email address and could call any time. We shook hands, and he breezed past an onslaught of TV cameras. I stopped to offer some comments.
?Is he smart? one reporter asked? I replied ?They?re all smart. The United States has an incredible breadth of smart people. That?s why we are the most dominant country in history.?
I called a taxi to retrieve my car back at the airport. In the meantime, I strolled around this really cool museum, far and away the best of its kind in the world. It displayed a Babbage calculating engine, a WWII German ?Ultra? decoding machine, and Steve Wozniak?s first Apple I, which was built in a wooden case. I even saw the wooden slide rule with which I worked my way through college. ?Yikes,? I thought, I?m becoming an antique myself.
That night, I went home, donned my orange hazmat suit, and caught up on the new season of ?Breaking Bad.?
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