I have long sat beside the table of McKinsey & Co., the best management consulting company in Asia, hoping to catch some crumbs of wisdom (click here for their home page). So, I jumped at the chance to have breakfast with Shanghai based Worldwide Managing Director, Dominic Barton, when he passed through San Francisco visiting clients.
These are usually sedentary affairs, but Dominic spit out fascinating statistics so fast I had to write furiously to keep up. Sadly, my bacon and eggs grew cold and congealed. Asia has accounted for 50% of world GDP for most of human history. It dipped down to only 10% over the last two centuries, but is now on the way back up. That implies that China?s GDP will triple relative to our own from current levels.
A $500 billion infrastructure oriented stimulus package enabled the Middle Kingdom to recover faster from the Great Recession than the West, and if this didn?t work, they had another $500 billion package sitting on the shelf. But with GDP of only $6.5 trillion today, don?t count on China bailing out our $16.5 trillion economy.
China is trying to free itself from an overdependence on exports by creating a domestic demand driven economy. The result will be 900 million Asians joining the global middle class who are all going to want cell phones, PC?s, and to live in big cities. Asia has a huge edge over the West with a very pro-growth demographic pyramid. China needs to spend a further $2 trillion in infrastructure spending, and a new 75-story skyscraper is going up there every three hours!
Some 1,000 years ago, the Silk Road was the world?s major trade route, and today intra-Asian trade exceeds trade with the West. The commodity boom will accelerate as China withdraws supplies from the market for its own consumption, as it has already done with the rare earths.
Climate change is going to become a contentious political issue, with per capita carbon emission at 19 tons in the US, compared to only 4.6 tons in China, but with all of the new growth coming from the latter. Protectionism, pandemics, huge food and water shortages, and rising income inequality are other threats to growth.
To me, this all adds up to buying on the next substantial dip big core longs in China (FXI), commodities (DBC) and the 2X (DYY), food (DBA), and water (PHO). A quick Egg McMuffin next door filled my other needs.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Great-Wall-of-China-e1428328303137.jpg400284Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-25 01:03:492014-04-25 01:03:49The China View from 30,000 Feet
Featured Trade: (ORLANDO FLORIDA SATURDAY, MAY 17 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON), (APPLE BLOWS OUT Q2), (AAPL), (ANOTHER NAIL IN THE NUCLEAR COFFIN), (NLR), (CCJ)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Market Vectors Uranium+Nuclear Enrgy ETF (NLR)
Cameco Corporation (CCJ)
Steve Jobs must be rolling over in his grave. He hated the idea of rewarding Wall Street in any way viewing the entire industry as nothing more than a collection of thieves, con men, and charlatans.
Today, we learned that Apple will carry out a 7:1 stock split in June, creating an absolute windfall for the brokerage industry. It seems that the brokers are having the last laugh. How far the Apple has fallen from the tree.
The news came out during the company?s spectacular Q2 earnings announcement covering the January-March quarter. Earnings per share rocketed from an estimated $10.18 to $11.62. Revenues leapt from a forecast $43.53 billion to $45.6 billion.
CEO Tim Cook guided revenues for the full year to the $36-$38 billion range. He also announced a massive increase in Apple?s share buy back program from $100 billion to $130 billion, the largest in corporate history.
iPhones, the firm?s core business, saw sales rocket from 38.5 million to an eye popping 43.7 million. And this is with the release of the new, big screen iPhone 6 in a few months! iPad?s fell from 19.8 million to 16.4 million due to production problems. CEO Tim Cook reaffirmed his belief that tablets will soon completely replace the personal computer.
There were no hints whatsoever about the numerous noise generating topics of Apple TV or Apple watches. Neither of these will ever account for more than a pittance of the company?s earnings, no matter how often speculation is dragged out on slow news days.
The gap up in shares in the aftermarket, some 7% to $565 a share, pretty much make it impossible to get any sort of entry points for a long side play in Apple. For week?s I had been urging followers to get in on the next dip to $500. But we never got there. At least Apple is trading with the rest of the market in 2014, like an absolute pig.
Still, Apple?s announcement augurs well for NASDAQ on Thursday and the market in general. That?s fine with me, as it presents me with a higher high from which the sell the market. Good thing I covered my short.
The New Apple Cupertino Headquarters Now Under Construction
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Future-Apple-Headquarters.jpg324470Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-24 01:04:182014-04-24 01:04:18Apple Blows Out Q2
Featured Trade:
(JUNE 17 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(APRIL 23 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(COME TO THE JUNE 13-14 INVEST LIKE A MONSTER LAS VEGAS CONFERENCE)
Please come to hear me, Mad Hedge Fund Trader John Thomas, as the keynote speaker at the Invest Like a Monster Las Vegas Conference on June 13-14.
I will be joined by many old friends from across the investment spectrum. Jon and Pete Najarian will teach you the tricks of the trade for navigating the ever complex options markets.
Fellow former combat pilot, Chuck Hughes, will go into depth on his own highly successful approach to trading the market. To listen to my in depth interview with him on Hedge Fund Radio, please click here.
Well known market commentator Guy Adami, the Prince of New Jersey, will be there to give his trading insights. So will former hedge fund manager and Yahoo Finance guru Jeff Macke.
The first day will be devoted to three educational sessions that get into the nitty gritty of trading options. The day winds up with a cocktail party with the Najarian Brothers and me.
I will kick off the Saturday session with and extended presentation on the long-term future of the financial markets, to be followed by an extensive question and answer session. I will be followed by an impressive lineup of market veterans.
The event will be held at the Bellagio Hotel on the Strip, my favorite Las Vegas haunt, best known for its spectacular water fountains out front. You may recognize it in the hit movies The Hangover and Ocean?s Eleven.
General admission costs $499 for the two full days. You can buy a VIP ticket for $699, which includes social events with the high and the mighty. It is all great value for the money, given the quality and quantity of the information you will obtain. Just click here: http://www.optionmonster.com/events/?refId=186 to buy tickets.
Trademonster?s proprietary program, called Heat Seeker ?, monitors no less than 180,000 trades a second to give an early warning of large trades that are about to hit the stock, options, and futures markets. To give you an idea of how much data this is, think of downloading the entire contents of the Library of Congress, about 20 terabytes, every 33 minutes.
The firm maintains a 10 gigabyte per second conduit that transfers data at 6,000 times the speed of a T-1 line, the fastest such pipe in the civilian world. The firm then distills this ocean of data into the top movers of the day, which is put up for free on its website, and offers much more detailed analysis through a premium subscription product.
?As with the NFL,? says Jon, ?you can?t defend against speed.?
The system catches big hedge funds, pension funds, and mutual funds shifting large positions, giving subscribers a peak at the bullish or bearish tilt of the market. It also offers accurate predictions of imminent moves in single stock and index volatility.
Jon started his career as a linebacker for the Chicago Bears, and I can personally attest that he still has a handshake that?s like a steel vice grip. Maybe it was his brute strength that enabled him to work as pit trader on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange for 22 years, where he was known by his floor call letters of ?DRJ.? He formed Mercury Trading in 1989 and then sold it to the mega hedge fund, Citadel, in 2004.
Jon developed his patented algorithms for Heat Seeker? with his brother Pete, another NFL player (Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Minnesota Vikings), who like Jon, is a regular face in the financial media.
June is a great time to visit Sin City, as the crowds are largely gone and the sun is wonderfully baking hot. You can ride the neck-breaking roller coaster at the New York New York Hotel, catch one of eight Cirque du Soleil shows, and ride a gondola at the Venetian Hotel.
Or you can try to get a great deal on a luxury item from my buddy, Rick Harrison, at the famous Gold and Silver Pawn, of Pawn Stars fame (good luck with that!).
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/ilam-lasvegas-baby.jpg250300Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-23 01:03:042014-04-23 01:03:04Come to the June 13-14 Invest Like a Monster Las Vegas Conference
Featured Trade: (JULY 11 SARDINIA, ITALY STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (THE 1% AND THE BOND MARKET), (TLT), (TBT), (MUB), (LQD), (ELD), (JNK), (MAKE YOUR NEXT KILLING IN AFRICA), (AFK), (GAF)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB)
iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond (LQD)
WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt (ELD)
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK)
Vectors Africa Index ETF (AFK)
SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa (GAF)
Featured Trade: (CHICAGO FRIDAY, MAY 23 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON), (BUY SOLAR STOCKS ON THE DIP), (FSLR), (SPWR), (SCTY), (TAN), (USO), (UNG), (XLU), (THE ONE SAFE PLACE IN REAL ESTATE)
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)
SunPower Corporation (SPWR)
SolarCity Corporation (SCTY)
Guggenheim Solar (TAN)
United States Oil (USO)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU)
Now that the stock market appears destined to soon enter correction territory, I have started searching for industries and companies that I want to buy at the bottom. The solar industry is at the top of that list.
Solar has a been a long time in coming. For decades, it was a niche energy source with very narrow following among scientists, the military, and Greenpeace activists. The problem was that it was just too expensive. It made sense only to those with unlimited budgets (the army), pursuing a political agenda (environmentalists), or when there was no other alternative power source (outer space).
Ironically, what really got the solar bandwagon moving was oil, which saw prices soar to $150 a barrel in 2008. That dramatically raised the breakeven cost of solar. Projects that only existed on paper suddenly made economic sense.
Then, Barack Obama was elected president. One of his first moves was to make available over $100 billion in subsidies for alternative energy projects of every description. All of a sudden, it was off to the races for solar.
This led to the first solar stock market boom in 2009. Some highflyers, like First Solar (FSLR) rose tenfold (it was a favorite ?BUY? recommendation of mine at the time). They were aided by states like sun-drenched California that mandated 20% of power consumption comes from alternative sources, to rise to 30% in the 2020?s.
This created an enormous solar and wind infrastructure throughout the west to meet the state?s voracious needs. Some 29 other states have passed similar laws with varying targets.
I inspected the centerpiece of the state?s solar strategy, flying over the gigantic Ivanpah facility in a wheezing, rented Cessna 172 in the barren, baking, but beautiful Mojave Desert. I brought plenty of extra water bottles and a compass in case I crash-landed and had to walk home.
It all looks like a film set from a science fiction movie, with 347,000 concave mirrors placed in enormous circles focusing light on hot water boilers atop three 460-foot towers. The plant opened in February, 2014 and is generating 377 megawatts of electricity, enough to power 140,000 homes in the Los Angeles area.
Planned a decade ago, the technology is now so primitive that it is unlikely to be ever used again. Far more advanced than film, solar is now taking over the world.
Then China came in and spoiled the party. Overproduction by poorly managed and weakly financed Chinese solar firms using inferior technologies quickly glutted the global market, and solar prices crashed by 80% or more. Many companies did not survive, such as the San Francisco Bay Area?s Solyndra, which defaulted on some $536 million in federal government loans (the feds got $143 million back).
This triggered a Darwinian clearing out of the industry, where only the strongest, the most innovative, and the most desperate survived. Technologies and efficiencies improved. The administration extended a helping hand by slapping hefty anti dumping tariffs on Chinese imports. The industry is lobbying for further restrictions. This all set the stage for a solar renaissance.
For the first time in history, solar is now cost competitive with conventional sources of power on a standalone, unsubsidized basis. As a result, the industry is exploding. In 2013, solar accounted for 29% of new power generation capacity in the US, after quasi-green natural gas, at 46%.
The advent of cheap solar roof panels and ?smart? electric meters in 43 states has enabled individuals to get in on the act. Such devices are now a standard feature on most new high-end homes. They genuinely do save money, especially when considering that utilities will bill you up to 50 cents per kilowatt hour for prime time consumption, compared to their average rate of 11 cents. There have been over 200,000 such installations in the past two years, half in the Golden State.
The Department of Energy wants to see solar grow from 1% of total generation today to 27% by 2050. This is creating the basis for a gigantic industry in the future. Hence, my interest as a long-term equity investor.
All of this will require a complete rethinking of the electric utility industry (XLU), which still uses a volume based business model that has remained unchanged for 120 years. The more they sold the more money they made.
The utility industry has mixed feeling about the new solar revolution. They are going to have to evolve from distributors of power for a single, large, capital-intensive source to an intermediary operation that buys and sells power between millions of users and producers. This is easier said than done, as this is the most conservative of American industries. People run to utilities in a bear market for a reason.
Only the other hand, moving towards solar and other alternatives gets them out of the carbon burning business, either through using coal or oil as fuel. There is not a utility in the country that isn?t swamped by lawsuits from well represented consumers claiming that the byproducts from burning these traditional fuels gave them asthma, lung cancer, or worse.
In the end, it won?t be a desire to save the environment, or the expediency to appear politically correct that will convert utilities to solar. It will be hard-nosed business sense.
The buy on the dip list is fairly short. The front-runner in this industry is the aforementioned First Solar (FSLR), which has been an industry leader for two decades. Not only is their US business booming, they have a gigantic project in western China that promises to spin off profits for years to come.
SunPower Corp (SPWR) has the attraction of a $1 billion order backlog. Or you can go generic and buy the Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN), which tacked on and impressive 270% last year.
I am less enamored with Solar City (SCTY). It is in the business of installing roof panels on homes. It takes advantage of generous government subsidies and the current ultra low cost of financing to keep prices low.
As much as I applaud the long-term vision of founder, Elon Musk, his association with the company has given it a cult like status. That is good for the share prices, but bad for valuations, which are through the roof. A greater dependence on subsidies could hurt them in the future.
Some formidable challenges lie ahead. In 2017 the government?s investment tax credit for solar drops from 30% to 10%. Other state subsidies are expiring as well. If this coincides with a recession that triggers a collapse in the price of oil, we could be in for another great clearing out.
Hopefully, by then, steadily advancing technology will further cut costs by half, making it possible for more firms to survive.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/House-Solar-Panels.jpg303453Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-16 09:01:012014-04-16 09:01:01Buy Solar Stocks on the Dip
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